Where Should You Draft Fernando Tatis Jr.?

Fantasy Strategy: Where Should You Draft Fernando Tatis Jr. After His Wrist Injury?

It’s now clear that one of the most significant, long-lasting impacts of the 99-day lockout will be the inability of players and teams (including doctors and trainers) to communicate. Not only were players unable to maintain their offseason training regimens and ramp-ups to Spring Training, but they were not able to disclose injuries suffered during the three-month ordeal. Since the phone lines opened again, we have heard plenty of bad news (Jack Flaherty, Lance McCullers, Chris Sale, for example), but there was no bombshell bigger than the one delivered by Fernando Tatis Jr. recently.

At some point either right before or during the lockout, Tatis suffered a wrist fracture as a result of a motorcycle accident. After a recent surgery, the prevailing thought is that he will endure a three-month recovery time, which will likely keep him sidelined through the first half of the season.

The question is not, of course, should Tatis be drafted. He is a unique and special offensive talent, capable of carrying a team to a fantasy championship. The more important question is when should Tatis be drafted?

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Current Tatis Jr. Average Draft Position

After spending literally every day of the offseason as the first or second player taken in rotisserie drafts, Tatis’ average draft position has fallen faster than Rob Manfred’s popularity rating. According to FantasyData’s current ADP, Tatis is taken around pick number 96, the 14^th shortstop off the board, since the injury was announced. In high-stakes NFBC contests, Tatis’ injury caused him to fall to pick number 58 on average. In the last four days, he has been taken as high as pick 34 and as low as pick 101.

With such a large variance in draft slot and opinions about where he should be taken all over the map, what’s the right answer? Where do you pick a player who is guaranteed to miss half the season, but then provide ultra-elite production the other half?

It’s Not a Binary Decision

What’s important to remember is that drafting Tatis for an outfield or shortstop spot doesn’t mean you are forced into only Tatis’ numbers at that roster spot for the year. You are theoretically getting Tatis plus the replacement stats you select later in your draft.

The other side of that coin is the opportunity cost of picking Tatis at X ADP and missing the stats of some other player who could have been selected there.

To most effectively make this decision, let’s consider the current projections for half a season for Tatis and think about where we would pick those numbers if they were for 150 games.

Half a Season of Tatis is Still Excellent

The major projection systems used by many fantasy analysts are all consistent in what they think Tatis will do when he returns from injury.

The average of these projections is 83 games, 359 plate appearances, 26 home runs, 64 runs, 64 RBI, 16 steals, and a .288 average. Compared to other shortstops and outfielders, we begin to see where ADP patterns on those kind of numbers emerge.

Shortstops

Here are shortstops who are similar to half-season Tatis in home runs and stolen bases for their full-season projections. Tatis’ average most favorably compares to Bichette and Anderson. His RBIs compare closer to Baez and Witt, but it’s clear that Tatis should not be falling even as low as pick 91 in average drafts.

Outfielders

There is also a substantial list of outfielders with whom Tatis compares when we look at home runs and stolen bases. His average puts him much more in the range of Tucker, Robert, and Buxton. If Tatis’ average (.292 in his MLB career) were in the Grisham and Baddoo range, it would be a massive disappointment.

Again, it is clear that Tatis should not come close to making it to pick 100 if we expect a .290ish average plus a 26/64/64/16 line. Those numbers are surprisingly close to Randy Arozarena (with a substantially higher average) and his 64.8 ADP.

Where Should He Go?

With this analysis, a couple of important points should jump out to us.

• The home runs, stolen bases, and batting average remain elite, even in half of a season.
• Drafting Tatis before pick 100 means you will still have to account for the extra runs and RBI elsewhere in your draft. But 64 of each is still very useful and easy to supplement.
• It shouldn’t be too difficult to combine another player with Tatis to still get first-round value.

My strategy going forward is going start looking for Tatis in the fifth or sixth round in 12- or 15-team leagues, knowing the homers, steals and average will more than pay off that investment. What I will then do after I fill out my starters is to target a shortstop or outfielder (depending on where I have Tatis slotted) that can help keep my team afloat in the runs, RBI, and average categories until Tatis comes back.

Players going after pick 120 I will be targeting to fill those gaps are:

Chris Taylor, 2B/OF – Going around pick 135 in NFBC drafts, The BAT X currently projects Taylor for 81 runs and 72 RBI in the high-octane Dodgers lineup plus a respectable .260 average.

Alex Verdugo, OF – Verdugo falls even further in drafts, currently taken around pick 163. He is projected for 77 runs and 67 RBI despite likely hitting fifth in the Boston Red Sox lineup. He also is projected for a .280 average.

Amed Rosario, SS – Rosario likely won’t contribute too much in the RBI category, but his projected 70 runs and .280 batting average at pick 169 are more than capable of filling the gap until Tatis returns. Rosario will also likely chip in double-digit steals in 2022.

Gleyber Torres, SS – Torres is slotted to play second base for the Yankees after the addition of Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and striking out on Carlos Correa. He already has shortstop eligibility and will gain second base after 20 starts. The Yankees are another team that won’t be short on runs this season. Torres goes off the board around pick 148 and should produce around 70 runs, 65 RBI, and a .260 average.

The combination of the first half of these players plus the second half of Tatis should more than make up for the opportunity cost of the player you would take instead of Tatis early in drafts. They each also have standalone value and can be helpful bench additions in the second half.