Austin Ekeler Could Be A Fantasy League Winner in 2021
Austin Ekeler Fantasy Forecast
What do we like to see from our early-round running backs?
Generally speaking, we look for volume, opportunity (little competition), a high-scoring, up-tempo offense, and upside among other factors.
In PPR leagues, there is another huge factor and that is the involvement in the passing game (targets and receptions). It's no secret in PPR leagues that targets are more valuable than rushes. It's simple math. A 10-yard catch (2 points) is worth more than a 10-yard rush (1 point).
So when we get a player that can check the traditional boxes and will see a large number of targets out of the backfield (think Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara) that is the perfect storm we are looking for in a running back.
Those factors can combine to create a league-winning running back. So who might fit the mold this season? Austin Ekeler looks to be a potential league-winner as a late first-round pick this season.
Last season, Ekeler played in just 10 games, but was third among running backs with 6.5 targets per game, behind only Alvin Kamara and J.D. McKissic. His 40.3 receiving yards per game was also third among running backs behind Kamara and McCaffrey.
In eight games with Justin Herbert under center, Ekeler was getting 11.9 rush attempts and 7.9 targets per game. That's volume that is worth noting. With Herbert as the starter, Ekeler had four games with 9 or more targets, including a game with 16 targets and a game in which he caught all 11 of his targets. That is massive potential for a running back based on targets alone.
The last time we saw Ekeler play a full season was his 2019 breakout season. He racked up 1,550 scrimmage yards and saw a whopping 108 targets and 92 receptions with 11 total touchdowns.
What is the 2021 outlook?
Behind Ekeler on the depth chart are Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley who should do little to threaten Ekeler's volume this season. Ekeler will never carry the load that some workhorse backs carry on the ground and his lack of goal-line carries could be frustrating at times, but again the involvement in the passing game can make up for that.
The Chargers have a new coaching staff with Brandon Staley taking over for Anthony Lynn as the head coach. Staley was previously the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay.
While Staley has an extensive track record as a defensive coach, he brought in a bright offensive mind in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Lombardi has worked with pass-catching running backs like Kamara, Reggie Bush, and Darren Sproles during his time with the New Orleans Saints. In Ekeler, it feels like Lombardi has a piece that he can use creatively out of the backfield and can also line up as a receiver in some cases.
The Chargers have good receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but Ekeler should slot in as a valuable piece in the offense and is a weapon that can be deployed in a variety of ways.
Last season, the Chargers led the NFL in plays run per game at 70.4 plays per game. If that continues into 2021, that should only help Ekeler's volume in the offense. With Herbert, a promising prospect, leading the offense, this looks to be an explosive unit that could produce multiple high-end fantasy options. And Ekeler could be the best and most versatile option.
Where should Ekeler be drafted?
FantasyData projects Ekeler to finish as the RB8 in PPR leagues this season, with 267.67 fantasy points. He slots in behind McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor at the position. It will be tough for Ekeler to finish ahead of some of those running backs, but I could see him outproducing Taylor and Barkley specifically.
According to Fantasy Pros average draft position, in PPR leagues, Ekeler is being taken on average as the 11th overall pick and 9th among running backs. The only pass-catchers being drafted ahead of him at this point are Travis Kelce (8th) and Tyreek Hill (10th). With Aaron Rodgers seemingly returning to Green Bay this season, Davante Adams (currently 12th overall) could leapfrog Ekeler in ADP.
This is shaping up to be a year in which running backs fly off the board early in drafts. The depth at wide receiver could lead to value at the position in the middle rounds. That means loading up on running backs early in the draft could be a popular strategy this year in drafts. Ekeler looks to be one of those elite options that can give your team a solid foundation.
Ekeler is locked and loaded as a late first-round selection in drafts, and in PPR leagues, he has the upside to finish higher. With such upside as a high-end option in what should be one of the top offenses in the league, Ekeler is a prime candidate to break out even more than he did in 2019 and become one of the top draft picks in 2022.
Brian Buckey
Brian Buckey is an avid fantasy sports player dating back to his first fantasy baseball league in junior high school, with fantasy experience in all four of the major sports. Brian currently is a sports writer for The Toledo Blade newspaper in Toledo, Ohio where he grew up. Brian is a proud Indiana University graduate, with a degree in journalism and is excited to provide fantasy analysis for FantasyData.