NHL DFS Tips: What Constitutes A Bargain Value Play?
NHL DFS Tips
There is a debate that has raged on since the beginning of daily fantasy hockey. What constitutes a good value play? Is there a metric or specific benchmark that players should go by? The answer is yes, to a point. It becomes more than just picking players and the inevitable guessing game. When it comes to NHL daily fantasy advice, there is a magic, ballpark figure (points per dollar) which is used to determine value, exceeding the value, or below value. I started to touch base on this in my DraftKings NHL Showdown Strategy, and the concept may sound repetitive, but bear with me. Using the two main platforms -- DraftKings and FanDuel, there is a simple approximate dollar per point assigned that can gauge what is a bargain play. There is a twofold criterion involved.
Player price must be at least 20% below that platform's average price per player. For DraftKings, that is $5,555 times 0.8 or $4,400 for rounding sake. When it comes to FanDuel, that number rises to around $4,800. Some "experts" go lower and say $4,000 for both. For the sake of debate, we'll keep a standard 20% to make life easier. First, let's look at DraftKings and then a few scenarios before delving into FanDuel.
DraftKings Bargain Value Play Theory
Typically, any player $4,400 or below has bargain value potential. The question is will that player exceed their price point per dollar. So, what is that? For the sake of using easier to digest numbers. $1500 per point is a standard benchmark for DraftKings. Therefore, a goal from a player in our threshold would exceed value because 3.5 DraftKings points would scale out to a player costing $5200 (estimate). Remember that a goal is three points and the corresponding shot on goal is a half point. There are players who frequently go above this number but very few who stay there. That is why it is called a play.
Think of players like Brandon Pirri, Blake Coleman, or now Ryan Donato. These are usually forwards who have seen expanded roles due to injuries, trades, or veterans playing poorly. This allows these players to establish themselves and sometimes garner more ice time. After that, there are less consistent forwards. Players like Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Strome, and Travis Zajac. They can elevate their game briefly but often fizzle out or do not have the floor necessary when they do not produce points. For DraftKings, points are approximately four times lower than FanDuel and prices are a little lower, to begin with (average player is approximately $556 less). Also, DraftKings usually, but not always, has softer pricing.
Most have noticed a tendency for certain days on DraftKings to be cheaper than others. For example, "Discount Mondays" because of the typically shorter slates has become a thing. Players that would usually be a good 10-25% higher in price are that much lower. It is something where we forgot one thing.
How about the defensemen in all of this? Defensemen are different breeds entirely. They have a floor or what we like to refer to as SABS (Shots And Blocked Shots). Consider that a shot and blocked shot are the same point value at a half point each. It is always easier to find defensemen to fit this set of criteria to exceed value over forwards. Defensemen carry that built-in value. Before Alex Edler's value jumped, he was a great example of bargain value play because he could easily get you four blocks and shots a night for stretches of time. Add in the fact he could average almost a real-world point every other game and it was automatic exceeding expectations. Also, it is why his price jumped to near DraftKings average. The people that run the algorithms do catch on to these things eventually. Quickly, then there is FanDuel Bargain Theory.
FanDuel Bargain Value Play Theory
FanDuel presents a slightly different set of constructs. Like mentioned above, the average price per FanDuel player is approximately $6,111. The same basic criteria just get ratcheted down a little when it comes to the different platform. For example, a bargain value should exceed $400 per point at a price of $4,800 or less. In most cases, players are touted at $4,000 or less. The funny thing with different pricing is there are some cases where a player is higher priced on DraftKings and then somewhere they are a value on one platform and not on another. Scoring is different on FanDuel. Please understand that shots and blocked shots are 1.6 points. Goals are 12 points, assists are 8 points. So, for the most part, just multiply by four.
Again, pay attention to the differences. It is essential. For this platform. minimum prices are $3,000 for forwards and $3,500 for defensemen. DraftKings is $500 lower for forwards and $1,000 for defensemen. It creates a slightly different dynamic. This is also a reason why the prices get upped a bit for bargain value when it comes to FanDuel.
For forwards, leaning on players who shoot the puck more is paramount on FanDuel along with line shifts. If a player is seeing more ice time, they obviously will have more chances to generate more opportunities for points. Also, look for stagnant prices. Some players get stuck in a certain price bracket. One year, Sean Monahan was $3,500 to $4,000 for months. He racked up a 30-goal season and exceeded value nearly every single night. That is some of what to look for when it comes to value play theory. The fun part now is with a few weeks to go heading into the playoffs is this. With expanded rosters and tanking teams, expect more value to be out there. The goal is to find it, exploit it, and make a profit off of it. Good luck!
Check out more NHL articles like this here.
Chris Wassel
Chris is a passionate hockey writer who writes everything from features to daily fantasy to sports betting. Hockey is the main name of the game. From being a regular on The Sweat to doing things with Dobberhockey and beyond, the goal is the same -- provide quality content with a good deal of edge. When one has written for the last 15 years or so, the realization that adaptation is essential is obvious. From Twitter, the goal is to take on all questions and bring it to the FantasyData arena. Let's get started!