Fantasy Football News, DFS Tips and NFL Trends
Fantasy Football News
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Tough break for Dak Prescott fans and Fantasy Team Managers that spent the draft capital to acquire one of the elite 2020 starting quarterbacks. His injury isn't justification for refusing to spend early in drafts, but it doesn't mitigate the case either. The fact that Andy Dalton is a hot commodity on the waiver wire and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Teddy Bridgewater, and Aaron Rodgers are all Top 14 at the deepest position in Fantasy after five weeks is, however. That's part of the Fantasy Football News and Notes in this week's column. It's been five weeks. Sample sizes are rarely too big and while we would love to have another 2-3 weeks of data to feel better about calling something a trend, we have something to feel a level of confidence about now. We've seen injuries and committee's impact touches and targets. We've seen breakouts and disappointments. Le'Veon Bell was released this week for example. Some of those noteworthy occurrences I have been overloading readers with through four weeks are becoming trends. Rookies and second "yearers" are one place to look. Any sample looks large when a player was a nobody and has now become a somebody. In Fantasy Football News and Notes, that's a good place to look for relevant evaluations and potential trends. There is a lot to get to in a week that is looking rough for Daily Fantasy players and yearly leaguers alike. In DFS, there are eight teams on bye or playing Monday Night and therefore not eligible in most DFS contests. For yearly league players, nevermind the injuries we saw in Week 5 - Dalvin Cook and Dak Prescott being two huge ones - there are four teams on bye and all of them have quarterbacks that rank in the Top 15 FantasyData scoring.
Prime Daily Fantasy Matchup Targets
Let's start with DFS. Matchups, both good and bad, are based on data and sample size and therefore, by definition, are noteworthy and susceptible to trending. Fantasy Football News and Notes are based on such things and with a tough slate of games this week due to all the recent injuries and six teams eliminated from Classic DFS contests, it's a good place to start this weeks column.
Derrick Henry: Tennessee Titans RB ($7300 on DraftKings) vs. Houston Texans
Henry is tied for second in rushing attempts with Joe Mixon (101) and faces a Houston Texans run defense that leads the league in rushing yards allowed. Henry will be an extremely popular cash game play, but the facts are the facts. He is a Top-ranked RB1 most weeks and in Week six, he has a matchup to salivate over.
Jonathan Taylor: Indianapolis Colts RB ($6,400 on DraftKings) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals rank second-worst in rushing yards allowed while Taylor is ninth in total rushing attempts even though he was not the opening day starter for the run-heavy Colts. Taylor is a rookie but the Colts love to run the ball - ranking fifth in total attempts - and against the Bengals, attempts means success. They have allowed 5.2 yards per carry, 795 total yards and five touchdowns as well as eight rushes of 20 yards or more. A tandem of Henry and Taylor is a sure thing for reliable cash-game production.
Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings WR ($7,300 on DraftKings)) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Justin Jefferson ($6,000) is more scintillating Fantasy Football News this week and I will address him later, but he has been a two-game flash in a pan. Thielen is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with a matchup against a Falcons pass defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards (1,679) and a whopping 15 passing touchdowns. With Dalvin Cook out and the Falcons in, his workload could be heavier and should be more fruitful than usual.
Calvin Ridley: Atlanta Falcons WR ($7,800) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Falcons/Vikings has all the ingredients to be a prime stack game. Two defenses that can't stop the pass, a multiple of talented wide receivers and a top-quality bring back on the opposing side to finish it off. The fact that Ridley is tied for the league lead in Red Zone targets with eight and receives 17.4% of the Falcons passing targets just makes me more willing to pay the lofty price and go chalk. My one concern is that the Vikings are a run-first offense and Alexander Mattison is one of the most talented backup running backs in the NFL. It doesn't sour me on this as one of the prime stacks of the DFS slate, but it is noteworthy, especially since Ridley and Thielen are two of the three most expensive wide receivers on the slate.
Noteworthy Advanced Metrics
Diontae Johnson: Pittsburgh Steelers WR ($4,900 on DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns
Johnson leads the Steelers in Target% (19.4%) and ranks third in the NFL for wide receivers in that metric. His snaps per game (33.5) are on the low side and he is banged up after a back injury in Week five, but Ben Roethlisberger has made Johnson his main target and the Cleveland Browns rank third-worst in passing yards allowed. They have also allowed 12 passing touchdowns. He's also priced at an anemic $4,900 on DraftKings.
Travis Fulgham: Philadelphia Eagles WR ($4,400 on DraftKings) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Fulgham is a waiver wire darling this week, resulting in Buy, Sell and Don't Be Fantasy Fooled debates across social media. The fact that he ranks fifth in Target% (19,3%) is a sign that he is not a fluke, but that number is diminished by the fact that he has done it in only two games. The sample is small and therefore less than trustworthy, but the little we do know suggests he is a priority in the passing game for a team lacking weapons. His future probably isn't the brightest in yearly leagues with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor eventually due to return, but in DFS in Week six, he is a contrarian play in a matchup that is better than what Fantasy players perceive it to be. At $4,400, he is a viable option regardless of any other factors and he has Carson Wentz's attention, making him an intriguing cheap DFS play.
Anthony Firkser: Tennessee Titans TE ($2,500 on DraftKings) vs. Houston Texans
I'm not advocating for Firkser here. To the contrary, I am a huge Jonnu Smith guy or as huge as someone who hates the tight end position can be. But, Firkser has a 12.5% Target% in three games and has been targeted four and five times in two of his last three games. It's noteworthy and he costs $2,500 on DraftKings. Nothing more than that. If you're desperate to find money to budget for higher-end options at alternative positions in tournament contests, here is a hail mary, contrarian play.
Noteworthy Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton: Dallas Cowboys QB vs. Arizona Cardinals
As soon as Dak Prescott was off the field Fantasy Football Social Media jumped to exalt Andy Dalton's status. Forget the fact that Bengals fans couldn't be happier that the red rocket has left Ohio. The argument: the Cowboys weapons could make any quarterback a justifiable yearly league starter.
Here are a few facts that might ruin what everyone is trying to make out to be a good story.
- Dalton has thrown double-digit interceptions in all but one NFL season, including 14 in 13 games in 2019.
- In six of nine NFL seasons, Dalton has thrown for fewer than 3,500 yards.
- He has had only two seasons with a quarterback rating above 92 and he had a rating of 78.27 in 2019, his final season with the Bengals.
Dalton has not been a victim of meager surroundings unless wearing a Cincinnati Bengals uniform automatically qualifies. He played with respectable running backs like Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard as well as wide receivers like A.J. Green in his prime, Mohammed Sanu, Tyler Eifert at Tight End and at the end of his Cincy run, Tyler Boyd. CeeDee Lamb looks like a great one in the making and Amari Cooper is one of the better NFL options in today's game, but Dalton has had a strong supporting cast and has only been a Top 12 Fantasy QB once in his career. In deeper leagues and DFS, with Dallas' weapons, he is a consideration but even in the friendliest of cases, he is not a "must-start" or even a target option. The buzz is understandable, but the argument that Zeke Elliott Fantasy Team managers will be the beneficiary of the Prescott injury is far and away the stronger one. "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" people.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Miami Dolphins QB ($5,900 on DraftKings) vs. New York Jets
Fitzpatrick is one of only seven quarterbacks with at least 100 Fantasy points in 2020. That's right. Ryan Fitzpatrick is currently the seventh-ranked QB in Fantasy football. He's been better than Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. At $5,900 on DraftKings he is priced as the 12th most expensive quarterback against a Jets pass defense that has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game and eight passing touchdowns in 2020. The Jets are dreadful and Joe Flacco doesn't make them any better. It's a reach to be excited about stacking the Dolphins, but Fitzpatrick to Isaiah Ford or DeVante Parker is an affordable, contrarian stack to consider. And, in yearly leagues, he is rostered in only 35% of Yahoo leagues. A Top 10 QB rostered in only 35% of leagues and Andy Dalton is the talk of the Week six waiver wire?? Lunacy alert.
Teddy Bridgewater: Carolina Panthers QB ($6,000 on DraftKings) vs. Chicago Bears
Bridgewater ranks a relatively average 14th in QB scoring (89.7) without Christian McCaffrey catching passes and scoring receiving touchdowns, but if you drafted him at his Average Draft Position of 197 then you found yourself a bargain that often leads to league championships and end-of-the-season bank deposits. He's rostered in only 51% of Yahoo leagues and while he doesn't have a cakewalk of a schedule, he has some good matchups against the Vikings, Falcons, Saints and Bucs as the season motors along. Mike Davis has done well picking up the McCaffrey slack after his injury while Robby Anderson has been a fantastic addition in free agency but Birdgewater deserves some credit for the success of them both. Quarterback isn't the toughest place to acquire a replacement in the trade market or even the waiver wire, but for Fantasy managers looking to wheel and deal and need a cheap, but viable QB in order to acquire talent at other more pressing positions, settling for Bridgewater isn't the worst thing for teams pushing to win a championship. He's been better than Carson Wentz, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan and every bit as good as Jared Goff.
Noteworthy Wide Receivers
Chase Claypool: Pittsburgh Steelers WR ($5,200 on DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns
In the "immediate gratification" society we live in it's no surprise that Chase Claypool is the flavor of the minute after his four-touchdown game in Week five. Well, it's my job to throw cold water on your warm, soothing bath when I can compose an argument to do it and with Claypool, it's not that difficult. Claypool had more receptions in Week five than he had total targets in 2020 up to that point. He has been targeted only 20 times and 11 of those were in his breakout week. Among the Steelers four wideouts (Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Washington) Claypool ranks third in total snaps, third in Snap% and second in Target%. The waiver wire is hardly deep and so it is understandable when a player has a career performance that they will be a hot waiver wire addition the following week. But that's all this is. Claypool is being targeted when he is on the field but he is only on the field for 39 snaps a game. That's too low to rely on. Fantasy Team Managers should not release a viable player because of a big week by a rookie. "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" folks.
Justin Jefferson: Minnesota Vikings WR ($6,000 on DraftKings) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are as good a matchup as a wide receiver can hope to find and the Vikings are a target stack in Week six, making Jefferson a viable DFS play regardless of what his future outlook is. But, that doesn't mean Fantasy Team managers should go nuts and target him in trade or label him a must-start. He is a sell-high guy, not a buy. Jefferson was great in Weeks three and four, finishing with two 100-yard receiving games and sending a strong signal that he will be an impact fantasy wide receiver, but Adam Thielen is their guy. Thielen leads wide receivers in touchdowns and has been targeted seven of the eight times the Vikings have thrown the ball inside the 20. Jefferson has been targeted once. The Vikes are a running team, both between the 20's and in the red zone, and when they do throw it goes to Thielen. He is the clear number two in both snap% and target% and that's good, but on a run-first team for a rookie who isn't being targeted inside the red zone, he is a mediocre option at best. Jefferson has only been targeted more than five times once this season and he only has one touchdown. "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" people.
Darius Slayton: New York Giants WR ($5,400 on DraftKings) vs. Washington Football Team
It's difficult to get excited about anything football coming out of New York, but Slayton is more than a little bit intriguing. He is 20th in Fantasy points amongst wide receivers, he is tied for 11th in targets, he has been targeted six times or more in every game but one and he has two 100-yard receiving games. And, he is rostered in only 82% of Yahoo leagues. He's been almost as good as Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen. How he isn't rostered in 90% of leagues or more is a travesty as well as an opportunity. Go get him and Flex him as a must-start. He is the Giants best wideout and far and away their most explosive player.
Trending Wide Receivers
Robbie Anderson: Carolina Panthers WR ($6,300 on DraftKings) vs. Chicago Bears
Anderson was held down by Adam Gase and the lowly Jets but has since been freed to fly by Teddy Bridgewater, the Carolina Panthers and new Head Coach Matt Ruhle. That's an odd sentence to write and a bit flowery to boot, but it isn't far from true. Anderson is tied for fourth-most in targets with 47, he has 36 receptions and he ranks as the seventh-highest scoring wide receiver in PPR formats at Fantasydata. At $6,300 he isn't a bargain or an unknown any longer, but this is a Fantasy Football News and Notes column and it is officially trending, Robby Anderson is good. DJ Moore had a great rookie campaign and sizzled during draft season, but Anderson is Bridgewater's #1. He is far and away his most popular target (19.2% for Anderson compared to 13.5% for DJ Moore) and he ranks sixth overall in the NFL. The volume is there, the production is there and the skill set is explosive. He has all the makings of a Top 10 wideout and through five weeks he has shown it. Buy in. Anderson is legit.
Ceedee Lamb: Dallas Cowboys WR vs. Arizona Cardinals
Rookies are usually inconsistent and rarely the focus of a gameplan, but Lamb has been different in 2020. Overall, he is tied for 10th in Targets and is 23rd in Fantasy scoring. For the Cowboys, he is second in Target% to Amari Cooper, who is one of the league leaders, and he leads the Cowboys in Fantasy Points per snap. He ranks third in total snaps and snap%, but he is extremely efficient and for the time being he is eating alive the favorable mismatches that he is seeing from opposing defenses. He's a must-start rookie even though the Cardinals are a below-average matchup in Week six.
Noteworthy Running Backs
Le'Veon Bell: Free Agent RB
The Jets are a disaster and Adam Gase proves at every stop that he is not a good head coach. Those are factual statements. What's also a fact is that good players should make an impact regardless of the talent around them and the incompetence of their coaching. Bell hasn't done that in New York. Neither has Sam Darnold for that matter. If you look at Bell's only full season with the Jets, he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and rushed for only 789 rushing and 461 receiving yards, one of his worst full-seasons in both categories. A player I compare Bell too and his potential downtick is LeSean McCoy, which is interesting because one of Bell's rumored potential landing spots is Kansas City. In 2018, with the Buffalo Bills, McCoy rushed for 3.2 yards per carry (matching Bells 2019), 514 rushing yards and only 238 receiving yards. Both, like Bell, career lowlights. McCoy transitioned to Kansas City in 2019 like Bell could be in 2020. He was more efficient with his touches but had a significant dropoff in volume. This is what Fantasy Team Managers should expect from Bell if they are looking to trade him or trade for him. His dropoff could be Adam Gase and the Jets fault, but Bell has had an overrated career on the whole. He has battled injuries and struggled to be a true, consistent impact contributor even though his standing in the game is higher than that. He's rushed for over 1,000 yards only three times (all over 1,200 rushing yards) in seven NFL seasons. He brought talent and explosion to both rushing and receiving, but he's less than his elite best now. I can't see Bell signing with the Dolphins where he would be the clear #1. If he signs in Buffalo or Kansas City he will be in committee situations where he is likely to be the first option, but not the only one. Those would be good fits for what he currently provides at this stage of his career, but not an ideal Fantasy situation for Team Managers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire Team Managers should be scared to death that the Chiefs are rumored to be on Bell's wish list. Edwards-Helaire isn't a special runner between the tackles and this would be a clear sign that the Chiefs plan to transition CEH to more of a pass catcher/change of pace RB than the three-down bell-cow Fantasy Team Managers drafted him to be. The Chiefs is where Bell should go. We'll see if they want him. He has shot his way out of town in two straight cities. Kansas City may not want to be the third.
Frank Gore: New York Jets RB ($4,000 on DraftKings) vs. Miami Dolphins
Gore will just never go away. He is like the Terminator and the Energizer bunny all in one. He is inefficient and can't handle a full workload but he is clearly the workhorse on a bad Jets team. He has had 64 carries in five games, with the now-departed Le'Veon Bell being second with a lowly 19. La'Mical Perine should receive more run with Bell gone, but Gore is still going to get his 12-15 carries and is likely to be the undisputed red zone option. That's something with at least limited value in DFS and deeper yearly leagues. Change of circumstances and possibly an upgrade in value. That's Gore beginning in Week six.
Trending Running Backs
Todd Gurley: Atlanta Falcons RB ($6,300 on DraftKings) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I ranked Gurley ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire during draft season and I have no reason to backtrack from that belief now. Gurley ranks 11th in Fantasy scoring for running backs in PPR formats where his decline has been most drastically impacted - one spot ahead of CEH. He ranks eighth in rushing attempts and is tied for second in rushing touchdowns. He has 22 rushing attempts inside the red zone and is the undisputed number one option for the Falcons in that regard. He's scored a rushing touchdown in all but one game and he has done it without a single receiving touchdown and without a presence at all in the passing game. Gurley isn't the guy we knew when he was 1.1 in drafts, but he is a Top 15 running back who could gain value if the Falcons decide to include him in the passing game. If limiting his touches keeps him fresh and efficient then that's fine, but if they choose to work him more there is upside for more from a guy that everybody hated during draft season. Gurley is a buy-low RB and trending up.
Kenyan Drake: Arizona Cardinals RB vs. Dallas Cowboys
Another name with sizzle during draft season that has disappointed and is trending more towards bust than breakout in 2020. Drake is sixth in rushing attempts, 14th in rushing yards but he has only six targets in the passing game and two overall touchdowns. The volume is there, the offensive weapons around him are there and the team in general is good. Drake isn't maximizing it. After five weeks the trends suggest that Drake just isn't that special. The volume creates a respectable floor and he is the Cardinals leading toucher in the red zone, but Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and occasionally even Chase Edmonds do vulture some of those opportunities. Some players are buy lows while others are buy bads. Drake is in the cushy zone in between them both, making him a tough call for Fantasy Team Managers. Managers shouldn't dump him at a discount while others shouldn't chase him hoping for a second-half explosion like we saw in 2019. Drake should stand pat in all leagues. Solid, but less than an exciting floor with a limited ceiling. He is what we should have thought he was. A low-end RB2 rather than a high-end Top 15 pick.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Kansas City Chiefs RB vs. Buffalo Bills
A lot like Kenyan Drake and trending in the opposite direction in comparison to Todd Gurley, CEH is receiving a lot of "buy-low" buzz after five weeks. Edwards-Helaire ranks seventh in rushing attempts and fourth in passing targets amongst running backs. That should be a good thing. Especially for a player with his explosive skill set. The problem is he has had one good game and it was on National Television on opening night against the lowly Texans. CEH has one touchdown, one 100 yard rushing game, one 50+ yard receiving game and he has shown that he is ineffective in the red zone and struggles on rushing downs between the tackles. If those struggles weren't discouraging enough, there are rumors that Le'Veon Bell wants to be a Chief. It's easy to convince yourself that there is upside here and that Edwards-Helaire is a buy-low, but that's delusional. His role has grown in the passing game while his efficiency and production in the run game has declined. The Chiefs aren't game-planning to get CEH the ball and he isn't showing the explosive big-play ability that we saw against the Texans on opening night and that's not surprising for me. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are the Chiefs best playmakers and it isn't a close call. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a good running back and his current status shows that. He ranks in the Top 15 at his position as a rookie. If expectations weren't so high that would be reason for celebration rather than disappointment, but he was drafted sixth overall and with an ADP like that, Fantasy Team Managers expected more. The only thing that has been bad about his season is in relation to expectations. Otherwise, he is having a very good year. An Offensive Rookie of the Year type year.
Pass-Catching RBs
In deep leagues or leagues with quirky scoring systems there are always a few players that offer a skillset that can exploit the quirks in those scoring systems or provide some value as a Flex. Here are a few running backs that aren't must-roster options but who are doing specific things that are noteworthy.
J.D. McKissic: Washington Football Team RB
McKissic is 5th in passing targets amongst running backs while being rostered in 6% of Yahoo leagues. He has zero touchdowns and is non-existent in the running attack, but with Antonio Gibson, a rookie, as the biggest obstacle for touches, McKissic is at least worth checking in on from time to time.
Chase Edmonds: Arizona Cardinals RB
Edmonds is 11th in passing targets amongst running backs while being rostered in only 65% of Yahoo leagues. He is the same player as McKissic only better, with tougher competition for touches and targets due to Kenyan Drake and Kyler Murray in the red zone. But, he has some playmaking ability and I wouldn't be totally shocked if he received more touches and targets as the season moved along. The Cardinals know what Kenyan Drake is and Edmonds, in limited doses, in many ways, is the better RB.
Nyheim Hines: Indianapolis Colts RB
Another running back comparable to McKissic and Edmonds with tougher competition than McKissic and a better path to touches and targets than Edmonds. I like the skill set but the production and the opportunities haven't been there. I keep a vigilant eye on him but it is nothing more than that. He shouldn't be rostered or used in DFS unless the opportunities take a leap in volume.
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Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio