PPR Fantasy Draft Advice: Don't Over Draft Running Backs
Fantasy Draft Day Tips
Running back is a thin position due to a lack of "bell-cow" backs. As a result, Fantasy team managers need to prioritize them to avoid being left without. Still, they also need to be careful not to become a victim of the draft day dilemma referred to by Fantasy Experts as "Position Scarcity." Position Scarcity drafting is when a Fantasy manager selects a lesser player than an alternative because he is an impactful one at a thinner position. It most commonly happens in Fantasy baseball at Catcher and Fantasy football at Tight End, but with the running back position is becoming more and more of a committee situation in the NFL and less and less impactful so it can happen at RB too. It occurs most often early in drafts when the options are still intriguing, but not elite. Derrick Henry could be considered a Position Scarcity play, but I have him ranked as an elite Tier #1 RB. He is a great runner who has proven to be able to manage a significant workload between the tackles, but he is almost non-existent in the passing game. He isn't a guarantee to be on the field on obvious passing downs or third down and in PPR formats, it limits his ceiling compared to other runners who catch 30-40 passes or the elite ones who can catch 50+. The balance we are trying to find here is, don't get left high and dry at the RB position but don't draft a mediocre running back instead of a high-quality wide receiver or even a tight end too early in drafts. This is the balance, and monitoring ADP's can help.
Using ADP in Tiering and Draft Day Strategy
Tiering is a common draft strategy. It's when Fantasy Experts draw a line behind a better player and in front of a lesser one as if to say, "this guy does not belong with them." Tiering is a way for Fantasy managers to swerve back and forth between positions when deciding who to draft and when. It's a way for Fantasy managers to navigate the delicate balance between smart drafting and over drafting. Fantasy managers don't want to overpay for lesser production (that is "Position Scarcity" drafting) but they also don't want to punt a position and be reliant on the waiver wire to hopefully save their season. If a tier of players is running out it is a smart strategy to select one at that position before they're all gone and the "next tier" begins. The assumption behind tiering is that there is a meaningful difference in the quality of the last player from a previous tier and the best player in the next one. Applying a player's ADP to this strategy will help Fantasy managers maximize value while limiting over drafting. Once a tier ends, don't reach for the best of the next out of fear. Move on to the best value, which might be at another position.
Running Back Tiers
There are five elite, tier #1 running backs, ending at the #5 ranked RB Dalvin Cook, who has an ADP of #5.9 according to Fantasydata.com. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is being drafted like one of the elite with an ADP of #6, but he isn't. (I will address him later.) The second tier starts with the #7 ranked Derrick Henry with an ADP of #7.5 and is followed by Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders (ADP #9.4) and Austin Ekeler (ADP #11.4). An argument can be made that Kenyan Drake deserves to be in the Top tier of running backs, justifies a Top 10 pick and is a solid value at #13.7 and many if not most analysts consider Derrick Henry an elite back, but I disagree. Drake does have the potential to be one of the five best overall players in all of Fantasy in 2020 and Henry was in 2019. Drake flashed great things in limited games for the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 and if that Drake arrives in 2020 he will be a great draft day value, but it's a reach based on his career history In my view. Henry, I expect regression and I don't like that he is nonexistent in the passing game. Drake has burned Fantasy managers for years and has struggled to be even an RB2 for the majority of his career. The same goes for Joe Mixon. Both have the ceiling to justify their current ADP and the history that should have Fantasy managers hesitant to take that plunge. One intriguing player that deserves serious consideration for a Tier #1 designation is Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, who is currently being drafted as the 8th best RB with an ADP of #9.4 and who I consider the Top of the second tier. There is uncertainty there, which is why I ranked him as a Tier #2, but there is upside too, and that's why I can see elevating him. It's also an example of the running back situation league-wide right now. The tiers aren't clearly defined if you look at it from their ADP's. There isn't much separation from what might be considered the end of one tier and the start of another.
According to Fantasydata.com's PPR ADP rankings, there isn't a big dropoff at the RB position anywhere in current drafts. Every three or four picks from #1.1 with Carolina Panther Christian McCaffrey all the way to as late as pick #118.1 (Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys) someone is selecting a running back. Fantasy managers don't see a significant difference anywhere if ADP is an indicator. Current draft ADP's suggest that the worst option in one tier isn't really much less valuable than the best of the next, or better put, drafters don't see tiers at all.
Here is where, and who, the worst overdrafts based on current ADP's in the 2020 Fantasy football draft season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP #6 - RB Rank: #6
Early in the draft season, Odell Beckham Jr was being selected outside the Top 75. That fever-induced insanity hasn't subsided as much as transitioned from OBJ (currently an ADP of #35) to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had an ADP as high as #4 and is currently the sixth-ranked RB with an ADP of #6 as I write this today. I had it all written. My best tag line of the year; "Edwards-Helaire is more likely to be the fourth-highest scoring Fantasy player on the Kansas City Chiefs than he is to be the fourth highest in all of Fantasy football." He isn't going to be the 6th highest scorer on the Chiefs in 2020 unless they kick a historical number of field goals and the defense is a turnover creating machine, but you get my point. There are always a few crazy things during draft season, especially in ADP's, and CEH's ADP tops the 2020 list and may be the craziest ADP I have ever seen in over three decades of playing Fantasy football.
The skillset is explosive and there is always an irrational amorous for the shiny new toy, but CEH has questions about how many carries he can handle between the tackles and where the touches and targets are going to come from as part of an offense with the best quarterback in football (Pat Mahomes), one of the best wide receivers (Tyreek Hill) and one of the two best pass-catching tight ends (Travis Kelce) in the game. David Johnson and Devin Singletary are being selected #28-#46. That's the neighborhood CEH deserves to be considered and he doesn't become a "value" until pick #50 as the 25th, 26th or 27th drafted running back.
Here is a comp for CEH. in 2019, Austin Ekeler finished ninth overall in total Fantasy scoring in PPR formats with 132 rushing attempts, 108 passing targets, 92 receptions, and 11 total touchdowns. At 5'8" there are questions as to whether CEH can be a bell cow, three-down running back and as a rookie, in his first NFL season, those questions have to be magnified. Austin Ekeler is 5"10', he has never toted the rock more than 132 times, and there remain questions about whether he can manage a 180+ carry workload. 2019's Ekeler is a best-case scenario for CEH's prime years and it's a bar I don't see any chance Edwards-Helaire reaches in his rookie campaign on a loaded offensive roster like the Chiefs. I don't think he becomes the next Ekeler in any season in his entire career, but certainly not in his rookie season. Edwards-Helaire is more likely to be the sixth-best rookie running back than the sixth-best overall Fantasy player in 2020. It's borderline impossible for him to justify his ADP. He won't, but if he were to fall somewhere in the neighborhood of Todd Gurley II at an ADP of #29.8 then I would seriously look at him as a legitimate option. With that ADP as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2, he becomes a strong value with upside to dream on. If CEH is the first Chief drafted then he was the most over-drafted Chief, and NFL player, in 2020.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
ADP #7.5 - RB Rank: #7
Henry is as safe a selection as you're going to find in the 2020 draft - when drafted at the proper time. 225-250 carries, 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns is as close to a lock as you're going to find, but to pick a running back in the Top five I want more than just security. I want ceiling and Henry doesn't have it. I don't want regression - which Henry has plenty of likely coming in 2020. He is non-existent in the passing game (18 receptions on 24 targets in 2019) and it took 303 rushing attempts to score 294 Fantasy points in 2019 - fourth-best at the running back position. 303 is an absurd number of carries in today's game and it's hard to see how Henry doesn't regress by 25-50 carries and as much as 250 fewer rushing yards or more in 2020. Especially when you consider the Titans financial investment in Ryan Tannehill. I love my players to be reliable and safe, but I demand more from a top five pick.
I would draft Henry after Austin Ekeler (ADP #11.4 - 9th ranked RB) and before James Conner (ADP #22.4 - 15th ranked RB) and Chris Carson (ADP #25.7 - 16th ranked RB). I project 1,250 yards rushing, 150 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns. He is being selected 15-20 picks too early. That's a lot for a first-round pick, especially with his lack of ceiling and the likelihood of regression from his 2019 breakout season. I would love to have shares of Derrick Henry as my RB2, but not at #7 overall. It's a big overdraft.
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
ADP #38.4 - RB Rank #22
I have long been a Gordon defender, mostly because he has proven to be money in the Red Zone (47 touchdowns in his last 53 games played), but the weak yards per carry average (4.0 for his career and only one season above 4.0 in five years as an NFL running back) and change in circumstances have finally thrown me off the wagon. I wasn't a big believer in Austin Ekeler as more than a change-of-pace playmaker and that helped Gordon's stature with me, but in Denver with Phillip Lindsay as his committee partner, I see a respectable but limited, less than exceptional 2020 for Gordon.
Lindsay is far more explosive than Gordon and should be far more than a handcuff. He could be their #1 between the 20's while Gordon is their 1C and goal-line vulture. I don't mind having shares of Gordon, but he should be selected in the 50's and not the 30's and after better running backs like Mark Ingram II, Rams rookie Cam Akers and even Marlon Mack, who is in a battle for touches in Indianapolis not unlike Gordon in Denver. His ADP isn't a disgrace like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but it's an overpay - especially if rumors about his trouble acclimating to the Mile High air is more than camp chatter and is a legitimate thing. That would turn him from an overpay into a potential bust.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
ADP #47.5 - RB Rank #25
Never done it before, and the year he finally did it, 2019, it wasn't ALL that great. 772 rushing yards, non-existent in the passing game (14 receptions), and only eight rushing touchdowns in 16 games played. He profiles as a running back that Fantasy managers snag in the late teens -rounds not picks - hoping he plays his way into a Flex rather than an RB2 that managers select as an RB they must-start.
San Francisco does love to run the ball. They ranked second to only the Baltimore Ravens in rushing attempts in 2019 with 498, but that alone doesn't make me draft a player that I fully plan to start every single week. The 49ers run the ball A LOT, but they have A LOT of guys to do it. They had like 19 running backs on the roster before pushing a few off the depth chart in trades. They still have Tevin Coleman, and Jerick Mckinnon to battle for touches, and Mostert isn't a legitimate option in the passing game, limiting just how often he will touch the ball and limiting how high his ceiling is. In order to select Mostert in the Top 50 Fantasy managers have to believe that 2019 was an indication of a breakout in 2020. At 28 1/2 years old after his first 16 game season, I'm not seeing how that's the case. He is what he is, and that isn't a 1,000-yard rusher or full-time RB. He's a late-round luxury, not a Top 50 pick. Overdraft.
Honorable Mentions
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
ADP #16.3 - RB Rank #13
I like Chub if Kareem Hunt wasn't in the picture, I would probably have him as an under draft rather than an honorably mentioned, but not overly aggressive, overpay. His touches and target share dropped after Hunt came off suspension in 2019, and with a full season ahead, Hunt is going to battle at least, and steal at most, a share of what should be Chubb's production. I don't see Hunt becoming the #1 or even an equal to Chubb, but Hunt had only 43 rushing attempts in eight games in 2019. Is it difficult to see 80-120 rushes and 60 targets for Hunt in 2020? If Odell Beckham Jr. is to have a comeback season and Austin Hooper was added for more than just photo ops and blocking, someone has to lose touches and targets and Chubb's 298 carries looks like the place to redistribute the wealth. And, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that Hunt turns back into his Kansas City Chief's glory and becomes an equal partner, if not the better RB1 for the Browns. As I said, I don't think that happens, but it isn't the boldest take or outside the realm of realistic possibility.
There aren't many running backs that I would select instead of Chubb at his ADP. I would just rather not pay such a lofty price for a player I have concerns about. That's why he is an honorable mention here. He is being ranked at his own position properly, but he has an ADP higher than I like. Strategically, I would look to acquire a high-end wide receiver like Deandre Hopkins or Julio Jones, or maybe reach a little for Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce at their ADP's and acquire a running back like Chris Carson (ADP #26.1) or Todd Gurley II (ADP #29.5) or a steal of a value, Cam Akers (ADP #51.2) to fill my RB needs later.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP #13 - RB Rank #11
I have been burned by Mixon's ability and disappointing seasons for years. He has been a keeper, even though I didn't want him to be, on my limited keeper league teams and with how thin the RB position can be he has repeatedly been a tough player to pass up for Fantasy managers who missed on one of the top guys and who don't want to be stuck with the running back options that are drafted after him. Fantasy managers have easily passed on ho-hum RBs like Jordan Howard when they were Top 25 options in the past because they lack ceiling or explosive ability, but Mixon doesn't. He has explosive ability, and he is part of a legitimate offensive roster even if the talent hasn't transitioned into points or production. Like Chubb, I don't think I would rank Mixon that differently than drafters are consistently ranking him. Still, I don't feel comfortable selecting him instead of more reliable contributors at other positions even though they are deeper, like QB or WR. If position scarcity is a concern, it's a better strategy to draft Tight End than Mixon this high for those Fantasy managers. Again, like Chubb, an honorable mention not because he is being drafted ahead of better players at his own position but because he is being selected too high considering the risks and the concerns associated with a player that repeatedly disappoints Fantasy managers.
Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio