Five Must-Have Pitchers For 2022
The MLB player pool is massive, and it’s hard to find an edge with so much information and analysis available. For the past few months, I’ve spent hours researching hundreds of players to identify those must-have players. We focused on five must-have pitchers for the upcoming season for this article. Let’s examine the reasons for optimism and concern to explain why we must roster these players for fantasy baseball leagues.
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Sandy Alcantara (P – MIA)
In two 15-team leagues, Sandy Alcantara landed on my teams in the third round as my SP2. If fantasy managers don’t draft starting pitchers early (like me), then Alcantara serves as an SP1. In 2019 and 2021, Alcantara averaged over 200 innings pitched with 403 total. Sometimes, when starting pitchers have career-best seasons, we find the BABIP and LOB% look unsustainable. However, that’s not the case with Alcantara, evidenced by the .270 BABIP compared to a career of .271. Plus, a 72.4% LOB% in 2021 with a career rate of 73%.
Alcantara’s Arsenal
Alcantara’s four primary pitches improved or bested the career rates, on top of the pitch mix change. He increased the slider usage and dropped the sinker usage. Furthermore, Alcantara nearly doubled the changeup usage in 2021 to 23.5%. The slider elicited an 18.2% swinging-strike rate versus a career rate of 15.3%.
Meanwhile, the changeup swinging-strike rate remained high at 16.3%. However, the four-seamer boasted a double-digit swinging-strike rate (11.2%) for the first time, not including the small 2017 sample of 8.1 innings. Alcantara’s top pitches in the sinker, slider, changeup, and four-seamer had a wOBA under .295. Outside of the slider, the other three possess above-average movement.
Alcantara’s 2022 Outlook
Some folks may hesitate whether Alcantara’s 2021 season with the improved 18% K-BB% will sustain or dip closer to the career 12.6% K-BB%. Early in drafts, especially 15-team leagues, we’re looking for safety and stability. Thankfully, Alcantara provides that, plus the arsenal and stuff to maintain a healthy strikeout rate. It’s a bonus to grab Alcantara as an SP2 but a perfect option as a fantasy ace as my top must-have starting pitcher in 2022.
Sonny Gray (P – MIN)
Before the trade to the Twins, Sonny Gray ended up on two of my teams, like Sandy Alcantara. Gray serves well as an SP3 or SP4 in 15-team leagues. Since joining the Reds, Gray reached career bests in strikeout rates with 29% in 2019, 30.6% in 2020, and 27% in 2021. As expected, Gray’s K-BB% also increased to 19.4% (2019), 19.6% (2020), and 18.3% (2021) versus a career rate of 14.5%.
Gray’s Arsenal
Although Sonny Gray’s sinker and four-seam velocity dropped about one-half mph, the breaking pitches remain the best pitches. Gray’s curve boasts an 11.4% swinging-strike rate with the slider at 16.8%. Unsurprisingly, the breaking pitches possess above-average drop and break, and they should continue to elicit whiffs and weak contact. That aligns with the .379 SLG and .284 wOBA on the curve, plus a .288 SLG and .235 wOBA with the slider. A groundball pitcher with quality stuff is someone to target, which is the case with Gray.
Gray’s 2022 Outlook
Thankfully, Gray is leaving a hitter-friendly park since the Reds home park rank third in wOBA (1.05) and second in home run park factor (1.21). Meanwhile, the Twins home ballpark ranked 17th in wOBA (1.00) and 21st (0.94) in home run park factors per EV Analytics. As a groundball-heavy pitcher with a career GB% of 52.3%, Gray’s 1.26 HR/9 should regress closer to the career rate of 0.90. With an NFBC ADP around pick 175, target Gray as an SP3 or SP4 in 15-team leagues.
Jordan Montgomery (P – NYY)
One of my favorite starting pitchers last year in Jordan Montgomery remains a favorite in 2022. Unfortunately, the fantasy community has increased interest in Montgomery, meaning major FOMO. In 2021, Montgomery threw 157.1 innings with a 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate. Like Sonny Gray, Montgomery serves as an SP3 or SP4 in 15-team leagues with relative safety and upside.
Montgomery’s Arsenal
Although Montgomery doesn’t have a dominant fastball, he uses a balanced arsenal with five pitches thrown at a double-digit rate. Montgomery’s curveball and changeup elicited a swinging-strike rate over 20% in 2021, paired with a silly .233 wOBA on the changeup and .217 wOBA on the curve. Overall, the arsenal isn’t overpowering, but Montgomery effectively commands and uses all of his pitches.
Montgomery’s 2022 Outlook
Last season, Jordan Montgomery’s ADP sat around pick 230. Over the past few weeks in Draft Champions Leagues, Montgomery’s ADP hovers at pick 190. Target Montgomery as an SP3 or SP4 in 15-team leagues, and put him on your radar around pick 150.
Jesús Luzardo (P – MIA)
Sometimes pitch mix changes don’t immediately turn into positive results. That’s the case with Jesús Luzardo after his trade to Miami last season. In 2021 with Oakland, Luzardo relied on the fastball. Then Luzardo lowered the fastball usage and increased the slider with Miami.
Unfortunately, positive results didn’t follow. However, the Marlins showed the ability to develop changes for Sandy Alcantara and Pablo López. Although López already had an effective changeup, the usage, effectiveness, and movement remained strong. Trevor Rogers, who broke out in 2021, also qualifies in that group of improved changeups.
Luzardo’s 2022 Outlook
I’ve pounded the table for Jesús Luzardo as a breakout pitcher candidate in January, and of course, Luzardo lands as one of my must-have pitchers for 2022. Luzardo’s ADP keeps rising, especially with the velocity bump in spring training.
Pardon? pic.twitter.com/X1H82SmeZX
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 22, 2022
Although it’s a small sample, Luzardo’s velocity raises eyebrows for folks, but let’s also monitor the slider and changeup effectiveness during the season. If you haven’t bought into Luzardo, there’s still time to roster Luzardo as one of my top must-have and breakout pitchers for 2022. Mitch Keller qualifies too, but I recently wrote about him as a late-round sleeper pitcher.
Corey Kluber (P – TB)
While Jesús Luzardo presents the upside and potential we haven’t seen consistently, Corey Kluber presents the boring stability, assuming health. Unfortunately, Kluber dealt with injuries the past few seasons and far from the 200 innings consistency from 2014 to 2018.
Before Kluber’s shoulder injury, he pitched well for the Yankees with a 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate in 53.1 innings, including Kluber’s first career no-hitter. Even Kluber’s 13.1% swinging-strike rate pre-injury and season-long 12.5% in 2021 aligned with the career averages.
Although Kluber doesn’t blow hitters away with velocity, which aligns with the ERA and FIP increase, we can toss out the 2019 and 2020 seasons due to injuries. That said, Kluber typically relies more on the non-fastballs.
Kluber’s horizontal movement on the curve and cutter remained above-average in 2021, like in previous seasons. That should allow Kluber to continue avoiding hard contact. In the small sample of 2021, Kluber’s breaking pitch elicited a 17% swinging-strike rate, with the cutter at 13.7%. It’s a dip from the career averages, evidenced by the career swinging-strike rate of 17.2% on the cutter and 22.5% on the slider. However, both pitches remained effective.
Kluber’s 2022 Outlook
The Rays can frustrate fantasy managers with playing time, but they know what they’re doing with pitching. In 2021, the Rays ranked fourth in team wOBA at .293 with the fourth-most negative Run-Value. With ERA, WHIP, and CSW%, the Rays remain atop the team ranks in 2021.
Unfortunately, Shane Baz underwent elbow surgery that will delay his start to 2022. Before Baz’s injury, he, Shane McClanahan, and Luis Patiño go ahead of Corey Kluber. Sure, the trio presents more upside than Kluber, but don’t sleep on Kluber as a must-have pitcher in 2022.
