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10 Ten Must Have Pitchers
Put your seatbelt on and strap in for a ton of pitching analysis on ten must-have pitchers for fantasy baseball leagues. With that, I’ll discuss my draft strategy regarding starting pitchers and how that’s woven into the process. Keep in mind, this isn’t a list of starting pitchers I roster the most since each draft is a tad different, and sometimes it depends on the draft spot.
Generally, I attack starting pitchers early on and I want three starting pitchers that I feel good building that foundation upon. All these ten must-have starting pitchers end up as personal favorites of mine. Since analyzing ten starting pitchers can be quite a load, this won’t serve as a deep dive into all ten of these starters. For reference, I’m looking at starting pitchers outside of the top-20 amongst pitchers on NFBC ADP. We’re using this cutoff as a general spot to find pitchers that may serve as an SP2 or SP3 on fantasy teams.
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs
NFBC ADP: 83
Since Kyle Hendricks doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, he seemingly doesn’t receive the love he deserves. However, over the past year or so, it seems like Hendricks is receiving long-awaited recognition. He’s consistently underrated throughout his career with a 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate in 1,047.1 innings pitched. That’s the 10th best ERA from 2014 to 2020. Not that ERA is the best indicator, but it’s an elite group. No doubt one of the most consistent pitchers that understand how to pitch, sequence, and limit hard contact. Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs wrote up an article highlighting Hendricks on a deeper level and how he’s an elite starter. I love drafting Hendricks as my SP2 or preferably my SP3 in 15-team leagues.
Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
NFBC ADP: 98
From a results perspective, Zack Wheeler performed well for the Phillies with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 18.4% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate. That came with a 3.22 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. Although the strikeout rate dropped, the walk rate also dropped, and it’s safe to expect the strikeout rate to rise in 2021. Wheeler had a procedure done on his right middle fingernail in October 2020, which possibly impacted him during the 2020 season.
Interestingly, Wheeler increased his four-seamer, lowered his sinker usage, and reduced the slider usage slightly from 2019. It’s difficult to tell if that was intentional or a small sample. Wheeler’s slider resulted in a higher swinging-strike rate at 16.4% in 2020 compared to 11.7% in 2019, even though he lowered its usage. His curveball is also a sneaky whiff pitch that he only uses about ten percent of the time. The curve elicited a 16.5% swinging-strike rate, 44.7% whiff rate, and .246 wOBA allowed. If you miss out on Hendricks, then target Wheeler for slightly more strikeout upside.
Zack Greinke, SP, Houston Astros
NFBC ADP: 107
Similar to Kyle Hendricks, Zack Greinke continues to perform well and eat up a ton of innings. Greinke’s another guy with elite command and control that can place any pitch wherever he wants. In 2020, Greinke finished with his highest ERA (4.03) since 2016. However, from 2017-2019, Greinke compiled a 3.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, a 24.5% strikeout rate, and a 4.8% walk rate. Greinke should help with ratios, so if you take a Blake Snell earlier on, then pair him with Greinke. Kyle Hendricks, Zack Wheeler, and Zack Greinke fall into a similar bucket in order of preference.
Pablo Lopez, SP, Miami Marlins
NFBC ADP: 133
Although it’s a limited sample, Pablo Lopez gradually improved year over year. In 2020, Lopez pitched 57.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA (3.09 FIP), a 1.19 WHIP, a 24.6% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% walk rate. In four out of 11 games started in 2020, Lopez pitched six-plus innings and allowed two or fewer runs. Lopez should provide decent ratios with an ERA around 4.00 and a 1.25 WHIP. In Eno Sarris’ starting pitcher rankings, Pablo Lopez has above average Quality of Stuff and Command Plus metrics, meaning his arsenal and command rate as above-average. Take a look at the pinpoint control and placement of his pitches.
He’s a smart guy that pays attention to analytics and makes adjustments. On a PitcherList podcast, Lopez mentioned that and we observed him make a pitch mix change in 2020. He lowered the four-seamer and upped the changeup usage (his best pitch). Fortunately, his best pitch performed well with the increased usage and the results on the four-seamer improved as well.
Last time, I mentioned Jose Urquidy in an article – Five Starting Pitchers That Need More Love, and ideally, we can land both Lopez and Urquidy. ATC projects Lopez for 160 innings with a 3.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP to go along with an 8.40 K/9, and 2.65 BB/9. The Lopez hype continues to increase, and so be ready to pay the premium at starting pitcher. However, he’s well worth it.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 177
Tyler Mahle is one of my top breakout starting pitcher candidates. In 2020, Mahle had a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with an increased strikeout and walk rate. His strikeout rate jumped to 29.9% up from 23.2% in 2019. Meanwhile, his walk rate increased over four percent to 10.4% in 2020. Mahle struggled a bit with his walk rate in 2017 and 2018, but then lowered it in 2019 to 6.1%. We can stomach the higher walk rate assuming a higher strikeout rate. Hopefully, his walk rate doesn’t balloon up too much further. Yes, the .255 BABIP allowed stands out with a career .306 BABIP, but the 75.1% LOB% finished similar to his career 72.6% LOB%.
Let’s briefly touch on the pitch mix change. For context, Baseball Savant shows Tyler Mahle swapped out his curveball for a slider as his top secondary pitch. However, on FanGraphs, it’s listed as a cutter as Mahle’s second most used pitch in 2020. Regardless, his slider/cutter performed well and resulted in high swinging-strike and whiff rates. Mahle’s slider elicited an 18.6% swinging-strike rate, 31.4% O-Swing%, 41.5% whiff rate, and .249 wOBA. Although that’s not a high chase rate (O-Swing%), he’s missing a ton of bats with the slider/cutter. Even the four-seamer improved in 2020 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate compared to a 7.9% swinging-strike rate (2019). We’ll note that he tends to rely heavily on the four-seamer and slider that accounted for over 87% of his pitches thrown.
We’ll see if he mixes in a third pitch, but the splitter looks mediocre. However, I trust the Cincinnati Reds pitching development with Kyle Boddy as their Director of Pitching, meaning they’ll work with Mahle to help him perform to the best of his ability. Mahle could make it work given how he locates the four-seamer and slider based on the pitch arsenal locations below. We see the four-seamers up in the zone and sliders down and away to right-handed hitters.
Aaron Civale, SP, Cleveland Indians
NFBC ADP: 193
One of the most popular sleepers in Aaron Civale recorded the 6th highest innings pitched total at 74 innings amongst qualified starters in 2020. Civale finished with a 4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 22.1% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate. When compared to 2019, Civale increased his strikeout rate and lowered the walk rate. That’s a good sign even if the ERA bumped up likely due to the .333 BABIP and increase in home runs allowed. Civale had a 6.6% HR/FB in 2019 and then a 15.7% HR/FB in 2020. The 6.6% HR/FB is likely unsustainable, and I expect his 2020 HR/FB rate to drop slightly.
Similar to the Reds, I tend to trust the Indians’ pitching development since they have a track record of helping pitchers progress. Aaron Civale uses a three to four-pitch mix that he uses above or near 10%. That bodes well for a pitcher with above-average control and command. ATC Projects Civale for a 4.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, a 7.74 K/9, and 2.27 BB/9. Although the projections don’t look great for Civale, sometimes the projection systems struggle with pitchers given so many granular changes.
Monitor the sinker and curveball usage because he increased the curve usage by over 10%. Civale’s sinker struggled a bit with a .354 wOBA and a 60.4% Zone%. Meanwhile, his curve resulted in a 19.7% swinging-strike rate and .318 wOBA. Target Tyler Mahle or Aaron Civale in this ADP range. Alex Fast on PitcherList also noted Civale moved to a shortened arm path and that’s something to monitor, assuming it makes a positive impact.
Here’s a look at @AaronCivale‘s new shortened arm path as mentioned in the piece. https://t.co/6ii8J7UHiI pic.twitter.com/WWqISBG1I1
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) February 21, 2021
Jameson Taillon, SP, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 206
Now that the Pirates traded Jameson Taillon to the Yankees, what should we expect? We should note Taillon’s resiliency after undergoing Tommy John surgery twice and battling testicular cancer. Sure, it’s worrisome after a pitcher returns from their second Tommy John surgery. However, according to Lindsay Adler of The Athletic, Taillon made some mechanical adjustments to help alleviate pain in his elbow. He’s also working on utilizing his lower body more and shortening his arm path. Not that we should expect the same results, but Lucas Giolito moved to a shorter arm path as well. Hopefully, the mechanical changes, in turn, help Taillon bounceback in 2021. At least, that’s my expectation heading into the season. Around pick 200, consider Taillon based on how your roster shapes up. At this point, he could be worth the risk.
Jose Urquidy, SP, Houston Astros
NFBC ADP: 206
I wrote about Jose Urquidy a bit deeper in my previous article here, and so see the full analysis there. Urquidy limits the walks and doesn’t strike out a ton of batters. However, he’s known for his command and control with a four-pitch mix (four-seam, changeup, slider, and curveball). ATC projects Urquidy for a 4.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.80 K/9, and 2.31 BB/9. I expect Urquidy to pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA or below, help with ratios, and sneakily go deep into starts. Draft Urquidy for safety and draft Jameson Taillon for upside.
Jordan Montgomery, SP, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 230
Similar to Tyler Mahle and several starting pitchers we mentioned earlier, Jordan Montgomery is one of my top sleeper/breakout starting pitchers. Montgomery hardly pitched in 2018 and 2019 due to injuries and Tommy John surgery, but given his 2020 small sample, I believe he’s ready to breakout. On the surface, Montgomery’s results looked below average with a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. However, his 65% LOB% likely falls closer to his career 72.7% LOB%. We notice this with his 3.87 FIP and 3.65 xFIP indicating that his ERA could’ve evened out over a full season.
Montgomery uses a four-pitch mix relatively evenly (sinker, changeup, curve, and four-seamer), which bodes well because he doesn’t rely on one or two pitches for success. His changeup, curve, and four-seamer all resulted in double-digit swinging-strike rates, which we love for a starting pitcher. ATC projects Montgomery with a 4.17 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.95 K/9, and 2.75 BB/9. He’s another starter that should outperform his projections, and I believe he’s in for a breakout season in 2021.
Spencer Turnbull, SP, Detroit Tigers
NFBC ADP: 361
Apologies for the overlap here since I mentioned Spencer Turnbull last time similar to Jose Urquidy in Five Sleeper Pitchers That Need More Love. However, Turnbull is one of the later must-have starting pitchers to consider. In 2020, Turnbull recorded his best ERA with a 3.97 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 21.1% K%, and 12% BB%. The low .285 BABIP allowed and career-high 70.5% LOB% likely contributed to his success. Turnbull primarily used a three-pitch mix with his four-seamer, slider, and sinker accounting for almost 87% of his pitches. The slider is exceptionally filthy with a 39.1% O-Swing%, 19.5% swinging-strike rate, and .174 wOBA allowed. Queue up Turnbull as one a late-round starting pitcher past pick 300.
Honorable Late-Round Mentions
J.A. Happ, SP, Minnesota Twins
NFBC ADP: 378
Here’s an unexciting starting pitcher that eats up innings in J.A. Happ. Since 2015, Happ recorded an ERA of 3.65 or below in five out of the past six seasons. That’s pretty solid. Outside of 2019 when he gave up a few too many home runs, Happ proved consistent. Interestingly, Happ relies heavily on his four-seamer and sinker over 64% of the time in 2019 and 2020 but also throws his slider about 17-18% of the time. It’s a bit unusual for a starting pitcher to rely heavily on two fastballs that hover around 89-91 mph and maintain success. However, Happ commands his pitches well enough and uses his four-seamer heavily to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, he uses his changeup primarily against righties to keep them off balance. He’s a nice stabilizer that should perform as a league-average pitcher that’s difficult to find late in drafts.
Nick Pivetta, SP, Boston Red Sox
NFBC ADP: 542
I’m planting my lukewarm flag on the post, post, post-hype sleeper in Nick Pivetta. After his hopeful 2018 season with a 4.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate, the results tanked the past two seasons. Although 2018 ERA stinks, Pivetta had a 3.80 FIP and 3.42 xFIP. One of the main issues for Pivetta involves the brutal four-seamer that resulted in a .453 wOBA in 2019 and 2020.
We noticed that Pivetta also adjusted his vertical and horizontal release point, which showed that he went slightly more over the top and closer to his body. The images above and below show the changes to his vertical and horizontal release points in 2020 compared to the past three seasons.
In turn, the horizontal and vertical movement changed as well, which is something to monitor in his first few starts of 2021. If these changes translate to results, then buy back in quickly or draft him with a late-round pick as a flier. Were these mechanical changes intentional or coaching suggestions? Probably a mix of both. Kudos to Joe Drake, Tate Schlichting, and Alex Fast for helping me sort through this data on Pivetta. With Pivetta’s ADP past pick 550 since February 1st, take him with a last-round pick in 15-team leagues.
