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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
First, let’s define sleepers and the players we’re identifying. For this article, we’re analyzing five sleeper hitters that seem to fly under the radar and thus need more love. As a starting point, we’ll use NFBC ADP over the past month beyond pick 200. These five players either have a surprisingly low ADP or have qualities that make them intriguing for fantasy baseball. I hesitate in calling these players boring, but it feels like no one’s talking about these guys. That said, let’s analyze five sleeper hitters plus an honorable mention that needs more love.
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
NFBC ADP: 260.60
The older Seager brother in Kyle Seager consistently produces year in and year out. At this point, Kyle Seager is more of a corner infielder for fantasy leagues than a guy to plug into a starting third base spot. He doesn’t provide much batting average, but he brings 20 plus home run power with a decent amount of runs plus RBI. In 2020, Seager finished with nine home runs, 35 runs, 40 RBI, and five steals with a .241 batting average. If we project 600 plate appearances, Seager was on pace for 21 home runs, 84 runs, 96 RBI, and 12 steals in 2020. Unfortunately, Seager hasn’t reached that RBI total since 2016, and that stolen base total is even more far fetched with 13 as his career-high in 2012.
Seager increased his barrel rate to 10.2% (66th percentile) and ranked in the 80th percentile with a .350 xwOBA. Although his 39.8% hard-hit rate (51st percentile) finished about average, Seager recorded his lowest strikeout rate (13.3%) and highest walk rate (12.9%) of his career. Interestingly, Seager swung less across the board with a 40.3% swing rate in 2020 compared to a 45.3% swing rate in 2019. Meanwhile, he lowered his chase rate with a 23.9% O-Swing% compared to a career 27.3% O-Swing%. All that makes sense given the drop in strikeout rate and increased walk rate.
At this point, we know what to expect from Kyle Seager, and the projections reflect that. The BAT projects Seager for 25 home runs, 72 runs, 78 RBI, and four steals with a .240 batting average. It’s odd to call Seager a sleeper hitter that needs more love, but he’s a stable force year in and year out as a corner infielder. Don’t forget about Seager with an NFBC ADP around pick 250.
Mauricio Dubon, 2B/SS/OF, San Francisco Giants
NFBC ADP: 276.72
When looking at the Giants’ projected lineup on Roster Resource, they expect to platoon half of the lineup. Fortunately, Mauricio Dubon shouldn’t platoon but rather play regularly in the infield and outfield. Unfortunately, Dubon projects to bat eighth, but maybe he works his way up the lineup. If you’re looking for a hitter that provides a healthy batting average with the potential for double-digit home runs and stolen bases, then target Dubon in drafts.
Throughout his brief career, Dubon holds a healthy 26.4% line drive rate. That bodes well for his .274 batting average since he’s known for a plus hit tool as a prospect. Dubon lowered his chase rate in 2020 with a 36.5% O-Swing% in 2020 compared to 46.2% in 2019. We don’t like that his 12.5% swinging-strike rate increased from 10% in 2019. When looking at his lowered contact rate at 76.8% in 2020 from 82.3% in 2019, it’s worrisome. However, that likely evens out over a full season. The BAT projects Dubon for ten home runs, 57 runs, 51 RBI, and 11 steals with a .250 batting average. Keep Dubon in mind later in drafts for a decent batting with the double-digit stolen base and home run potential.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 279.20
A guy that excited me heading into the 2020 season – Bryan Reynolds. In 2019, Reynolds finished with 16 home runs, 83 runs, 68 RBI, and three steals in 546 plate appearances. He slashed .314/.377/.503 with an 8.4% walk rate and 22.2% strikeout rate. The Pirates called up Reynolds in late April 2019, and he consistently contributed for the rest of the season.
However, in 2020, Reynolds struggled mightily with a triple slash of .189/.275/.357 to go along with a 10.1% walk rate and 27.4% strikeout rate. Given the slash line, it’s no surprise that his counting stats stunk with seven home runs, 24 runs, 19 RBI, and one steal in 208 plate appearances. Reynolds typically posted a high BABIP throughout the minors and 2019. He finished with a .387 BABIP in 2019 and a .231 BABIP in 2020. It makes us wonder if his BABIP evens out closer to his career numbers over a full season. I think yes, given his past track record and career 23.4% line drive rate.
Bryan Reynolds not only puts a ton of balls in play, but the quality of contact ranked highly in 2019 as well. In 2019, Reynolds boasted a 41.6% hard-hit rate (65th percentile), .367 xwOBA (81st percentile), and a 92.4 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 91) tied with Michael Brantley. It’s not worth looking at his Statcast data from 2020 since it looks awful. Even when glancing at his plate discipline, Reynolds had almost identical O-Swing% at 31.3% in 2020 and 31.1% in 2019. The same goes across the board in terms of plate discipline.
Bryan Reynolds didn’t land on the injured list in 2020 but landed on the paternity list, which likely impacted him. With that said, his ADP of 279 makes him a target of mine as a late-round outfielder. The BAT projects Reynolds for 19 home runs, 76 runs, 76 RBI, and five steals with a .268 batting average. Although the Pirates lineup as a whole isn’t looking so great, I expect a bounceback season for Reynolds as one of the five hitter sleepers that need more love.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 330.33
Okay, okay, before you roll your eyes at Joey Votto, let’s take a look at reasons for optimism. In 2020, Votto finished with 11 home runs, 32 runs, and 22 RBI with a .226 batting average in 223 plate appearances. For context, Votto totaled 12 and 15 home runs in over 600 plate appearances in 2018 and 2019. According to a Mining the News article by Jeff Zimmerman, Votto became more aggressive at the plate while making adjustments to his stance and plate approach in late August 2020. Zimmerman notes a quote from Votto on Sirius-XM radio, where Votto said he attempted to hit the ball harder. In September of 2020, Votto’s strikeout rate increased, and the counting stats doubled. Even his .328 wOBA in the first month stood out compared to a .369 wOBA in September 2020. Hopefully, those changes stick heading into 2021.
Votto’s hard-hit metrics don’t look great, but he finished 2020 with a .356 xwOBA (84th percentile) tied with his teammate Nick Castellanos. He always displayed elite on-base skills with a career 16% walk rate and a .419 OBP. The BAT projects him for 22 home runs, 92 runs, 79 RBI, and four steals with a triple slash of .260/.368/.431. We’ll note that Votto hasn’t sniffed counting stats like that since 2017, but maybe the change in stance and plate approach provides a late-career surge. It’s challenging to find hitters past pick 300 that projects for full playing time and the potential to compile a ton of counting stats. Votto is someone I’m targeting late in drafts as a corner infielder or bench depth.
Colin Moran, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 400.55
Colin Moran, the former Astros top prospect involved in the Gerrit Cole trade, was on pace for career highs across the board. In 2020, Moran totaled ten home runs, 28 runs, and 23 RBI with a .247 batting average. When we average out his plate appearances totals in 2018 and 2019, Moran would’ve averaged 24 home runs, 67 runs, and 55 RBI. Outside of his RBI total in 2019 (80), Moran could’ve smashed his career bests. It’s important to note the Pirates’ weak lineup may limit run-producing opportunities for Moran.
In 2020, Colin Moran crushed the ball with a 47.2% hard-hit rate (86th percentile), 13.4% barrel rate (87th percentile), and a 96.6 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 15) between Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna. That shows Moran’s power potential, even if it’s a small sample. All those metrics finished as career highs for Moran, so it’s safe to expect some regression baked in. With an ADP past pick 400, Moran should provide similar counting stats to Kyle Seager with a tick down across the board. The BAT projects Moran for 22 home runs, 70 runs, 79 RBI, and one steal with a .257 batting average in 627 plate appearances. Even though Roster Resource shows him as platooning against right-handed pitchers, it’s hard to imagine anyone else on their roster taking away playing time at this point. Moran’s a solid corner infielder that could have a career season in 2021.
Honorable Mention:
Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox
NFBC ADP: 405.23
The former utility specialist for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Enrique Hernandez now signed a two-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. Hernandez should start, often at second base, with the chance to play in the infield and outfield. The downside is that Roster Resource projects him to bat ninth for the Red Sox. In 2020, Hernandez totaled five home runs, 20 runs, and 20 RBI with a .230 batting average.
In part-time playing time in 2018 and 2019, Hernandez averaged 19 home runs, 62 runs, 58 RBI, and three steals in 461 plate appearances. Given a 600 plate appearance pace with those averages, in 2018 and 2019, Hernandez was on pace for 24 home runs, 80 runs, and 75 RBI. With the Dodgers depth, he never totaled more than 462 plate appearances. That said, it’s a bit of a leap of faith.
From 2018-2020, Enrique Hernandez typically displayed an above-average Z-Contact rate hovering above 87%. In 2020, he nearly recorded a career-best 43.1% hard-hit rate (71st percentile) with a 93.8 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 75) between Todd Frazier and Aaron Hicks. Although none of that screams excitement, the main reason for optimism involves potential full playing time with an ADP around 400. Fenway Park appears more favorable for hitters compared to Dodger Stadium outside of home runs.
