Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
On baseball Twitter, many have discussed the idea of batted balls not flying as far or falling short of the wall, even though the exit velocities remain high. Last week, I looked at the early hitting stats per plate appearances versus previous seasons. This week, I looked into barrel data via Baseball Savant, including exit velocity, average distance, SLG, xSLG, wOBA, and xwOBA on barrels. Although the barrel rates and exit velocities remain up, the average barrel distance, SLG, and wOBA remain down compared to past seasons.
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Each week, we sort the FanGraphs leaderboards in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and more to identify which players warrant a look at what’s going on with the underlying metrics. With our first hitter, we have a screaming hot first baseman fueled by BABIP yet hitting the ball hard. Then we have one of the swaggiest young players in the game, plus a starting pitcher due to climb, who already tossed six scoreless earlier this week.
Two Hot Hitters
Eric Hosmer (1B – SD)
Eric Hosmer accumulates plate appearances with an average of over 630 in ten seasons, not including 2020 and 2022. With a career BABIP of .316, Hosmer’s .426 BABIP will regress. Hosmer’s BABIP boosted the .382 batting average early on versus a career .279 batting average.
However, it’s positive to see Hosmer’s walk rate increase (10.6%) with a drop in strikeout rate (14.1%). If these numbers remained similar across the season, Hosmer would post career bests in both categories. With that change in plate discipline, let’s look a little deeper.
Interestingly, Hosmer’s chase rate increased to 36.5%, nearly three percent above his career rates. Hosmer makes above-average contact, evidenced by the 91.6% Z-Contact% and 82.3% Contact% in 2022 that align with the career norms.
I expected the lower chase rates to translate into more walks, but the other notable plate discipline metrics include a 72.8% O-Contact% and 8.3% SwStr%. In early 2022, Hosmer is making more contact outside and in the zone with the swinging-strike rate aligning with the improved strikeout rate.
Hosmer’s Batted Ball Data
We know the narrative – if Eric Hosmer would just hit fewer ground balls. Well, guess what – Hosmer is hitting even more ground balls in 2022 with 59.4%. With about a month’s worth of data, Hosmer traded flyballs for ground balls. Meanwhile, the early 20.3% LD% remains near his career rate of 19.9%.
However, like many other hitters early on, Hosmer’s pull rate jumped to 45.3%. Hosmer boasts a 34.1% Pull% with an all fields approach typically throughout his career. Outside of 2020, we have to go back to 2016 to find a Pull% for Hosmer above 33%. The increased pull rate indicates Hosmer is selling out for power, although the flyball rates haven’t followed.
Hosmer typically rocks an above-average hard-hit rate over the past few seasons, with more of the same in 2022 at 45.3%. However, Hosmer’s early 6.3% Barrel% and 4.7% Barrel/PA rank below the career averages of a 7.2% Barrel% and 5.2% Barrel/PA. That’s not too surprising given the heavy groundball rate to begin 2022. With the high pull rates, let’s also look at the wOBA versus the shift.
- 2022: .483 wOBA vs. Shift
- 2021: .241 wOBA vs. Shift
- 2020: .223 wOBA vs. Shift
- 2019: .374 wOBA vs. Shift
It’s early, but I expected Hosmer’s wOBA versus the shift to be better in the past seasons with a lower pull rate. We’ll see if those numbers regress, which likely will happen. However, Hosmer’s .445 wOBA without the shift looks like an outlier, with a previous season-high of .373, not including 2020.
Hosmer’s 94 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 62) compares similarly to 2021 with a 95.3 mph (No. 31), yet identical to 2019 at 94.1 mph (No. 49). It’s a small sample, but Hosmer is crushing breaking pitches with a .500 BA, 1.000 SLG, and .663 wOBA through 22 plate appearances. Hosmer never had a slugging percentage above .381 (2017) and wOBA north of .292 (2017). Against breaking pitches, Hosmer has a .207 BA, .306 SLG, and .244 wOBA throughout his career.
Takeaways
The Padres need Eric Hosmer’s bat in the lineup with Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Jurickson Profar headlining their current team. Even though Hosmer’s BABIP and batting average will regress, fantasy managers should continue to ride the hot streak, especially in 15-team leagues. Unfortunately, Hosmer likely has little trade value in redraft or dynasty formats as a boring accumulator. There’s value in boring accumulators, but Hosmer’s profile looks nearly identical besides the increased pull rate. Monitor the pull rate and success versus breaking pitches moving forward.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B/SS – MIA)
In 2021, Jazz Chisholm crushed in the first month of the season with four home runs and nine stolen bases, plus a .311 batting average. Chisholm smashed the ball with an 18.4% Barrel%, but the .422 BABIP boosted the batting average.
Then in late April 2021, Chisholm suffered a hamstring injury that landed him on the injured list. From May 16 and beyond, Chisholm hit 14 home runs with 14 stolen bases in 22 attempts, plus a .236 batting average. Chisholm’s double-digit walk rate in the first month dipped to under 6% from May 16. The barrel rate also tanked to 6.9% as he dealt with other injuries throughout the 2021 season.
Chisholm started batting in the bottom third of the lineup in seven of the first eight games to begin 2022. Then Chisholm moved the leadoff spot since. Chisholm has started the season hot, with four home runs and four swipes with a .313 batting average boosted by a .370 BABIP.
Chisholm’s Plate Discipline
The strikeout and walk rates for Jazz Chisholm look identical, but he lowered his chase rate to 25.3%. Although the overall Swing% of 45.6% remains similar, the Z-Swing% increased by over 6% in 2022. Chisholm’s contact rates aren’t as high as 2021, with a 78.3% Z-Contact% and 70.9% Contact% versus 81.9% Z-Contact% and 73% Contact% in 2021. It’s positive that he’s chasing less but concerned about the below-average contact rates.
Chisholm’s Batted Ball Profile
Thankfully, the contact quality is loud with a 14% Barrel% and 9.3% Barrel/PA. Even Chisholm’s 50% hard-hit rate jumped eight percent from 2021. Amongst hitters with 25 batted ball events, Chisholms rocks a 95.5 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 77) in 2022, up from 94.7 mph (No. 39) in 2021.
That aligns with Chisholm’s increased LD% to 24.5%, up from 20.4% in 2021. Chisholm traded the 48.6% GB% for line drives and flyballs in 2022 with the 40.8% GB% and 34.7% FB% this season. The pull rate also jumped nearly 18% from 2021 to 58% in 2022. We love the decreased ground ball in favor of more line drives and flyballs, especially with the loud contact. Chisholm has performed well against the shift with a .444 wOBA compared to a .287 wOBA in 2021.
Takeaways
Jazz Chisholm displays the tools to compile 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases with a reasonable batting average. If Chisholm’s higher line drive rate sticks, that would help boost the batting average, though the contact rates concern us. Stats and metrics aside, Chisholm remains one of the most exciting young players to watch with swag. As long as Chisholm stays healthy, there’s massive upside moving forward. Buy high on Chisholm if you’re a believer.
Cold Starting Pitcher
Steven Matz (SP – STL)
Steven Matz experienced some run struggles with the Mets, evidenced by the 1.71 HR/9 and 18.9% HR/FB% from 2017 to 2020. Then in 2021, Matz lowered his HR/9 to 1.08 with a near career-best 12.3% HR/FB% playing with the Blue Jays. When Matz landed with the Cardinals for 2022, it seemed like a perfect match given the pitcher-friendly home park.
On the surface, Steven Matz looks like a cold starting pitcher with a 6.11 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 17.2 innings before Monday’s start, which then dropped to a 4.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The 26% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate, plus a BABIP of .400 and a 68.5% LOB% should mean better ratios and results incoming. Matz’s 12.1% SwStr% aligns with the increased strikeout rate, though the SwStr% may regress to the career norm of 9.4%.
Matz’s Arsenal & Results
Steven Matz typically relies on the sinker (48.9%), changeup (27.2%), curveball (19.6%), and slider (4.3%). That’s similar to the usage in 2021, with the sinker at 51.9%, changeup at 23.4%, curveball at 16.6%, and slider at 8.1%.
Against righties, Matz reduces the slider usage to rely on the three primary pitches. The early pitch mix against righties looks similar to the overall season usage, with the sinker generating the most whiffs with a 29.5% Whiff%.
Meanwhile, against lefties, Matz swaps the curveball usage for the changeup. The curveball is filthy against same-handed hitters with a 53.8% Whiff% and .225 wOBA allowed, though it’s an early small sample in 2022.
Interestingly, the sinker’s SwStr% of 11.1% is much higher than the career averages. That makes sense with the O-Swing% and lowered contact rates. It’s early, but the zone rates on the curve and slider increased while giving up similar amounts of contact. Unfortunately, the sinker has gotten crushed early on with a .389 BA, .444 SLG, and .390 wOBA. Meanwhile, the chase rates on the changeup and curveball remain significantly above the career norms early in 2022.
Matz’s changeup added over an inch of drop and typically possessed above-average vertical movement each year. Unsurprisingly, hitters are chasing the offspeed pitch more early in 2022.
Meanwhile, the curveball possesses an above-average horizontal break with just under one more inch in 2022 versus 2021. The curveball swinging-strike rate improved, plus Matz has thrown it in the zone more. That’ll be something to monitor if the Zone% remains up, plus the swing and miss results.
Takeaways
On Monday, Steven Matz threw six scoreless innings against the Royals. Matz allowed four hits and zero walks with four strikeouts. The overall 20% Whiff% and 23% CSW% aren’t mind-blowing, but Matz took advantage of a weaker matchup since the Royals hitters rank in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS.
If anyone’s panicking at the ERA and WHIP for Steven Matz, don’t. The underlying skills indicate better results moving forward on several fronts, including the BABIP, LOB%, K-BB%, swinging-strike rate, and the movement profiles. Toss out some buy-low offers for Matz for a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, plus the career 15.3% K-BB%, yet limited upside.
