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Fantasy Baseball Breakdown
With all the discussions and data about the offense being down, Ty France says to turn down for what. When looking at full-season data from the past few seasons, the batting average, plus runs and home runs per plate appearances, remain down to begin the 2022 season. However, the early barrel rate aligns closer to 2020 and 2021.
We know the offenses start slow in April, partly due to weather and conditions. That’s the case again in 2022, with a dip in home runs and runs per plate appearance, plus batting average.
Don’t panic if your fantasy team is off to a slow start on offense. Hopefully, fantasy managers can patch together hot streaks like the ones by France and Francisco Lindor. Or even Owen Miller, Seiya Suzuki, and Steven Kwan from earlier in the season. This week, we’ll break down France’s hot start, Lindor’s bounce-back season, and Marcus Stroman’s early struggles.
Hot Players
Ty France (1B/2B – SEA)
After coming off a productive 2021 season of 18 home runs, over 150 runs plus RBI, and a .291 batting average, Ty France looks to build upon that in 2022. France, the co-AL Player of the Week with Miguel Cabrera, is off to a solid start with five home runs and a .368 batting average. The guy can hit with a .364 BABIP sustained by a 30% LD%. We’ll see if that sticks since France traded those line drives for flyballs early on.
With that increased LD%, France dropped the Pull% to 35% and started using an all fields approach versus the career 40.2% Pull%. France typically displays quality plate discipline, and that’s the case again in 2022 with a 94.8% Z-Contact% and 82.4% Contact% with a swinging-strike rate in the single digits (8.8%). Although France hardly struggled with strikeouts, the gradual plate discipline improvements contributed to the drop in strikeout rate at 11.4% versus a career rate of 18.5%. That also helped boost the walk rate (8.9%) and OBP (.443).
Interestingly, France doesn’t pop in the hard-hit metrics with a 6.8% Barrel% and 4.9% Barrel/PA in 2021. That’s nearly identical in 2022 with a boost due to the recent surge, evidenced by the 8.3% Barrel% and 6.3% Barrel/PA. Even the 417% hard-hit rate increased from the career rate of 38.5%. However, France possesses above-average raw power, evidenced by the 111.1 mph maximum exit velocity (79th-percentile) in 2021. France should compile 20+ home runs with the regular playing time.
Takeaways
Ty France provides that rare corner and middle infield eligibility, plus a quality batting average. In 2022, the league average BA is .231, that’s down from the .244 BA in 2021. France has a career batting average of .287 in over 1,000 plate appearances. Monitor France’s LD%, but the plate discipline and counting stats via batting in the two-hole should make fantasy managers quite happy. Furthermore, the expected stats on Baseball Savant back up the early hot surge with a .380 xBA (100th-percentile), .648 xSLG (95th-percentile), and .459 xwOBA (99th-percentile).
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)
After an NFBC ADP of 19 in 2021, Francisco Lindor‘s ADP dropped to 54 in the final two weeks of draft season. In 2021, Lindor endured a Grade 2 oblique strain that derailed his typical production. Outside of 2020, Lindor never had a batting average below .273 since 2017. Then Lindor’s batting average dropped to .230 with 20 home runs and ten stolen bases.
Lindor’s strikeout rate boomed to a career-high (18.3%), yet the walk rate also reached 11.1% – also a career-high. So far in 2022, Lindor has an 11.8% walk rate and a 14.1% strikeout rate. Lindor’s five home runs and three stolen bases in 85 plate appearances are half of what he produced in 2020 in 266 plate appearances.
Lindor’s 48.4% Pull% in 2022 remains a career-high, and the 38.7% FB% sits near his career average of 36.6%. After a dip in Z-Contact% and Contact%, Lindor’s plate discipline looks back to normal with a 92.4% Z-Contact% and 85.2% Contact%.
One minor concern involves the exit velocities, but it’s early, and Lindor never smashed in the hard-hit metrics. Interestingly, Lindor’s 35.5% hard-hit rate is below his career rate of 38.6%. However, the 8.1% Barrel% and 5.9% Barrel/PA sit above the career averages of a 6.7% Barrel% and 5.1% Barrel/PA.
Takeaways
Assuming health, Lindor should once again compile 20+ home runs and 15 stolen bases, which he provided for three straight seasons (2017-2019). Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso surround Lindor in the heart of the Mets lineup. Hopefully, fantasy managers pounced on the ADP dip because the early returns look positive as one of the steadier bats. Don’t sell high on Lindor since he’s not overperforming, but rather, positive regression towards his career norms.
Cold Players
Marcus Stroman (SP – CHC)
How can one not love Marcus Stroman? Although Stroman doesn’t fit the typically starting pitcher build, he typically provided workhorse type numbers with an average of over 192 innings in four out of five seasons (2016-2021). It’s safe to say Marcus Stroman is off to a rough start with an ERA just south of seven (6.98).
Stroman ran into some misfortune with a 49.1% LOB% and 1.86 HR/9 compared to a career strand rate of 72% and 0.85 HR/9. Throughout Stroman’s career, he never averaged more than 0.93 HR/9 back in 2016. Those metrics should regress, meaning better ratios moving forward.
What else affected Stroman’s early struggles? In 2022, the sinker isn’t garnering the same results with a 1.8% swinging-strike rate and 7.1% Whiff%. It’s a small sample, but even the .261 BA, .435 SLG, and .376 wOBA in 2022 look out of whack.
Meanwhile, the sinker elicited a swinging-strike rate of 6.2% and 17.2% Whiff% in 2021 with a .294 BA, .426 SLG, and .337 wOBA. Although sinkers don’t typically result in whiffs, Stroman’s sinker typically boasted a double-digit Whiff%. In the Statcast era, Stroman’s sinker averages a .296 BA, .426 SLG, and .344 wOBA.
Outside of the sinker results, the movement profiles remain similar, particularly on the sinker and slider. There’s a bit of variation from 2021, but the only notable change in the small sample includes the slider breaking almost two inches more in 2022.
Stroman’s Arsenal
Like the sinker, Marcus Stroman’s slider, changeup, cutter, and four-seam aren’t generating the same swing and miss ability in 2022. The swinging-strike rate on the slider (8.8%) is nearly half of the 2021 numbers (16.7%).
The same trend applies to the changeup, cutter, and four-seamer, with the swinging-strike rate and chase rate down in 2022. It’s early, and there’s a chance it’s partly due to the shortened spring training as that messed with a player’s typical off-season routine.
On Tuesday, Stroman posted a quality start against the Braves as his best start of 2022. Over the previous two starts, Stroman allowed 12 combined earned runs, three total in the two other outings. The slider and cutter performed well with a 42% CSW% on the breaker, plus a 31% CSW% on the cut fastball. Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction for Stroman.
Takeaways
It’s hard to quantify, but Marcus Stroman is a gamer that competes. Stroman’s LOB% and home run should regress, especially with home runs and run-scoring down to begin the season. Assuming Stroman’s pitch results also improve closer to the career averages, it presents a buy-low opportunity if there’s panic early on. Do you believe Stroman’s stuff will or won’t regress towards the career norms? I’d lean towards Stroman’s stuff moving closer to the career averages.
