MLB Picks Today: Thursday Baseball Bets
Thursday features a small slate of games in the MLB, and our top money line pick of the day is to take the Guardians on the road vs. the Red Sox. A Guardians win is paying out at +106. Our second best money line bet would be to grab the Rangers in a matchup with the Tigers. The Diamondbacks and Giants matchup is our highest projected scoring game of the day to cap today’s slate off.
Moneyline Plays
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
Guardians (+106) - Red Sox (-127) | O/U 9.5
At 1:35 from Fenway Park in Boston, we have an American League matchup between the Guardians and Red Sox. Carlos Carrasco is starting for the Guardians, and he is facing off against Brennan Bernardino for the Red Sox. Heading into Thursday's game, the Guardians have a record of 12-6, while the Red Sox are 10-9.
Boston is sending Bernardino to the mound as the Red Sox are looking to move above .500 for the season. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the Red Sox are the favorite on the money line at -127. You can catch this one on NESN.
Boston picked up a 2-0 win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had just one more hit than the Guardians and struck out 11 times, but still picked up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -135 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Tanner Houck for the Red Sox and Ben Lively for the Guardians. Houck went nine innings and didn't give up a run as he picked up a win in the game. Lively also had a solid outing, going five innings and giving up just two earned runs.
Cleveland had a chance to get on the board in the 3rd inning, as they loaded the bases with no outs. However, Houck got out of the jam by striking out the next three batters. From there, the Guardians only had two more baserunners and didn't get another hit.
For the Guardians, Steven Kwan is our top projected hitter in terms of total hits, as his projection is 9th best in the league today. José Ramírez has the 4th best total hits projection on the team, but his home run projection is the best on the team and 9th in the league today. Josh Naylor is 2nd in terms of home run projections for the Guardians, while Andrés Giménez is 2nd in terms of total hits.
For the Red Sox, we have Triston Casas as our top home run candidate on the team and 5th best in the league today. Tyler O'Neill is 3rd on the team in terms of total hits today and 2nd in terms of home run projections. Masataka Yoshida has the highest total hits projection on the team.
Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Guardians are on the road to take on the Boston Red Sox. Carrasco has started three games this season and has yet to pick up a win. He has taken a loss and has two no-decisions. In his last outing, he went 4 2/3 innings and took the loss, giving up just 1 earned run.
Through his first 4 appearances of the season, Brennan Bernardino has yet to factor into a decision. He has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen and has gone 1 inning in each of those outings. His first start of the season came at home vs. the Guardians, where he went 1 inning, giving up 1 run on 1 hit. In his most recent outing, he went 1 inning, striking out 2 and giving up 2 hits.
Cleveland Guardians ML +106
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Rangers (-109) - Tigers (-110) | O/U 8.5
Thursday's matchup between the Rangers and Tigers is set to get started at 1:10 from Comerica Park in Detroit. The Rangers are sending Jack Leiter to the mound up against Kenta Maeda for the Tigers. Texas comes in with a record of 10-9, while the Tigers are just above .500 at 10-8.
As for the money line odds, the Tigers are at -110 compared to the Rangers at -109. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and you can catch this one on MLBN.
The Rangers head into today's game vs. the Tigers with a record of 10-9, good for 1st place in the AL West. Currently, they hold a half-game lead over the Angels. So far, the Rangers have been just below .500 in their series, with a record of 2-2-1.
At home, Texas has gone 5-5 this season and is just above .500 at 5-4 on the road. Texas got back on track in their most recent game vs. the Tigers, as they had dropped two straight as part of a three-game series. This season, Texas is 7-3 as the underdog, compared to 3-6 as the favorite.
Detroit's overall record currently sits at 10-8, and they are in 3rd place in the AL Central. Right now, they Tigers are two games behind the Royals for 2nd place in the division and four games behind the Guardians for the division lead. Detroit has a series record of 2-1-2 this season.
At home, the Tigers are just 4-6 this season, but they have been better on the road at 6-2. Detroit is coming off a series loss to the Rangers and, before that, won their series vs the Twins.
Our player projections for the Rangers today have Corey Seager leading the team in total hits, with his total being the 3rd best in the league today. Marcus Semien is 2nd on the team in terms of total hits, and his total is 4th in the league. Adolis García is our top projected home run hitter for the Rangers, and his total is the best in the league today. We also have Seager's home run total as the 2nd best in the league today.
For the Tigers, we have Kerry Carpenter as our top hitter today, as his hits projection is the highest on the team. His home run projection is 2nd on the team and 9th in the league today. Spencer Torkelson is our top home run hitter for the Tigers, as his home run projection is the best on the team and 8th in the league today. Riley Greene is our 2nd best hitter in terms of hits, while Gio Urshela's hits projection is the highest on the team.
For today's game against the Tigers, the Rangers will rely on Jack Leiter to set the tone. It's his debut for the season and he's looking to put together a strong start in his debut.
Kenta Maeda is on the mound for the Tigers today against the Rangers. This will be his second start of the season, and he has gone 6 innings in each of his first two outings. He took a loss in his first start, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up 3 earned runs, and then went 6 innings in his last start, allowing 2 runs.
Texas Rangers ML -109
Over Under Plays
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Diamondbacks (+144) - Giants (-170) | O/U 7.5
At 9:45 PM from Oracle Park in San Francisco, we have an NL West matchup between the Diamondbacks and Giants. Heading into Thursday's game, the Diamondbacks are 9-10 compared to the Giants at 8-11. Logan Webb will start for the Giants, while the Diamondbacks are sending Ryne Nelson to the mound.
San Francisco is the favorite in this one, with money line odds of -170, and the over/under line is 7.5 runs. NBCS is carrying this one on TV.
After taking their series opener vs the Cubs, the Diamondbacks dropped the final two games of the series. Looking at where they are in the standings, the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West, just two games behind the Dodgers. Currently, they are 9-10.
At home, the Diamondbacks have gone 7-6 this season, but on the road, they are just 2-4. Arizona is coming off a series win vs the Cubs and, so far, has a series record of 3-3.
As the Giants are set to take on the Diamondbacks today, they are in 4th place in the NL West. Currently, they are three games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. In total, the Giants have a record of 8-11.
Looking at their overall series record, the Giants are 2-3-1 this season. When playing at home, they are 3-3, and they are just below .500 at 5-8 on the road.
If you're looking for some player props for the Diamondbacks, we like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to have a good game. He's our 2nd highest projected player in terms of total hits, and we have him as the top home run threat on the Diamondbacks, with his home run projection being 8th best in the league today.
When looking at the Giants' offensive projections, we see that Jung Hoo Lee is not only projected to have the most hits on the team, but his hits projection is 2nd best in the league today. LaMonte Wade Jr. is 2nd on the team in terms of total hits, and his total hits projection is 5th best in the league. In terms of home runs, Jorge Soler has the best odds to go deep for the Giants, as his home run projection is 3rd best in the league today.
Ryne Nelson will be making his 4th start of the season for the Diamondbacks, and he is coming off a win in his last outing. He has gone 6 innings in each of his first two starts, and in his most recent start, he struck out 4 and gave up 1 earned run on 7 hits.
Logan Webb gets the start for the Giants at home against the Diamondbacks. Webb has been solid in his first two outings, going 7 innings in each start. He picked up a win in his last outing, going 7 innings and striking out 4 while giving up just 1 earned run.
Over 7.5 Runs -120
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Marlins (+128) - Cubs (-152) | O/U 7.5
Thursday night's matchup between the Marlins and Cubs is set for 7:40 from Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Cubs come in with a record of 11-7 and are sending Jameson Taillon to the mound vs. a Marlins club that is 4-15 and starting A.J. Puk.
Chicago is the favorite at -152, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. If you're looking to catch this one on TV, it is being carried by MARQ.
Miami is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 3-1 loss to the Giants, Trevor Rogers was excellent on the mound, allowing just one run while pitching into the 6th inning. They also got a big offensive performance from Bryan De La Cruz, going 2/4 with a homer.
Declan Cronin took the loss out of the bullpen for the Marlins, as Miami allowed two runs in the top of the 8th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Marlins were the slight favorite at -106 at home.
Chicago closed out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a 5-3 win on the road. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +109 on the money line. Offensively, the Cubs scored their five runs on nine hits and only hit one home run.
Jordan Wicks got the start for the Cubs but only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs. He also issued three walks and took the loss. Chicago's bullpen was excellent, though, as they didn't give up a run over the final 4 2/3 innings. Hayden Wesneski got the win out of the bullpen, and the Cubs also got a save from Michael Rucker.
Our player projections for the Marlins favor Jesús Sánchez to have a good game at the plate. He has the highest home run projection on the team and is 7th in the league in terms of home run projections today. Luis Arraez is our top projected hitter for the Marlins, as he has the highest hits projection on the team and in the league today. If you're looking for a long-shot bet, Josh Bell has the 9th highest home run projection in the league today.
When looking at the Cubs' offensive projections, Nico Hoerner is our top projected hitter in terms of total hits. Christopher Morel is our top projected home run hitter for the Cubs, and his home run projection is 8th best in the league today. Garrett Cooper has the 2nd best home run projection on the team and 9th best in the league today.
After starting the season with three straight losses, A.J. Puk and the Marlins are on the road to take on the Cubs. Puk has gone 4 2/3 innings in each of his first two starts, and he has 11 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings of work this season.
Jameson Taillon is coming off a season in which he made 29 starts and finished with an ERA of 4.84. He had a record of 8-10 and made nine quality starts. In terms of his WHIP, Taillon finished the season at 1.28, and his FIP was 4.61. When it comes to strikeouts, Taillon averaged 8.16 per nine innings and finished the season with a K/BB ratio of 3.4. For the season, Taillon allowed a total of 27 home runs.
Chicago Cubs ML -152
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Angels (+130) - Rays (-155) | O/U 8.5
Thursday's matchup between the Angels and Rays is set for 1:10 from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Los Angeles comes in with a record of 9-9, while the Rays are just above .500 at 10-9. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, and he is facing off against Griffin Canning for the Angels.
Tampa Bay is the favorite at -155, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. If you're looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by BSSUN.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Angels vs Rays series. Los Angeles went into the matchup as +102 underdogs and squeaked out a 5-4 win. The Angels had to rally late, scoring two runs in the 8th and another two in the 9th. As for the Rays, they scored one run in the 2nd and added three more in the 3rd, but didn't score another run the rest of the game.
Tampa Bay wasted a good outing from Zack Littell, as he gave up just three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Pete Fairbanks took the loss. Hunter Strickland got the win out of the bullpen for the Angels as Reid Detmers went 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run.
Amed Rosario hit the game's only home run while going 2/4 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Mike Trout did some of everything for the Angels, going 1/4 with a home run, two RBIs, and two runs scored.
For the Angels, we have Mike Trout, who has the team's highest home run projection and is 6th best in the league today. Taylor Ward is our top projected hitter in terms of total hits and has the 8th-best home run projection in the league. Logan O'Hoppe is 2nd in terms of home run projections for the Angels and 8th best in the league. Nolan Schanuel is 2nd in terms of total hits on the team.
Our model is projecting Yandy Díaz to have a strong game offensively, as he not only has the highest hits projection on the team, but his hits projection is also 8th best in the league today. If you're looking for a Rays player to hit a home run, Isaac Paredes has the best odds on the team and his home run projection is 6th best in the league today. Richie Palacios also has a good chance to go deep, as his home run projection is 2nd best on the team and 8th best in the league.
Griffin Canning will be making his 3rd start of the season today for the Angels, and it will be his first on the road. He has had a rough start to the year, as he has taken the loss in each of his first two starts. In his last outing, he gave up 6 earned runs in 4 innings of work.
Ryan Pepiot is getting the start for the Rays today at home against the Angels. He has started 3 games this season, with his most recent outing being a loss to the Giants. In that game, he went 5 innings, giving up 4 earned runs and 1 home run. In his first start of the year, he struck out 11 batters in a win over the Rockies.
Tampa Bay Rays ML -155
Matthew Davidson
Matthew is a long time fantasy football and dynasty football fan. He lives in Las Vegas and grew up rooting for the Raiders. The team moving to his hometown was very exciting news. Matthews is married and has two young boys.