Free MLB Picks Today: Friday, May 10th
Friday’s full slate of games starts with a matchup between the Astros and Tigers at 6:40 PM, followed by the Cubs facing the Pirates in an NL Central showdown. Another good one to watch is an NL East matchup between the Braves and Mets in New York. The Reds and Giants face off in San Francisco to close out the late.
- Thursday Recap: I went 4-3 on Thursday, 4-1 with picks, and 0-2 on Overs/Unders.
Moneyline Plays
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Reds (+134) – Giants (-161) | O/U 7.5
Friday night’s matchup between the Reds and Giants will take place at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The first pitch is set for 10:15 PM ET. The over/under line for the game is 7.5 runs, and the Giants are the favorite at -161. NBCS is carrying the game.
San Francisco is 17-22 overall and trails the Dodgers by nine games in the NL West. The Reds are 16-21 and are six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Cincinnati is looking to snap an eight-game losing streak, while the Giants are 3-7 over their last ten games.
Michael Conforto has been swinging a hot bat for the Giants, going 9/26 in his last seven games with two homers. For the season, he is hitting .275 with seven homers. Elly De La Cruz has been one of the top hitters for the Reds, as he is batting .264 with eight homers and 20 RBIs.
Andrew Abbott is 1-4 this year with a 3.32 ERA and is coming off a rough outing vs. the Orioles. Logan Webb is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and has a 0.86 ERA at home. Overall, he is averaging 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings.
Cincinnati Reds ML +134
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Braves (-153) – Mets (+127) | O/U 8.0
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, and he has a league-leading 12 homers and 38 RBIs. Over his last five games, he is 5/18 with three homers. Overall, he is hitting .315 and has an OBP of .396. The Braves are 4th in scoring, and they will face Jose Quintana today, who is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.20. He is coming off a start where he gave up 8 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.
Charlie Morton will be on the mound for the Braves, and he is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.50. He is coming off a no-decision vs. the Dodgers, where he gave up two earned runs in six innings. The Mets are 14th in scoring and are led by Brandon Nimmo, who has an OBP of .377 and is hitting .229 overall. He has three homers over his last ten games and is hitting .270.
First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET, and the Braves are the favorite at -153. The over/under line is at 8 runs. Overall, the Braves are 22-12 and are two games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Mets are 18-18 and are seven games back. The Braves are 13-4 at home and 9-8 on the road. The Mets are 9-10 at home and 9-8 on the road.
New York Mets ML +127
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees (-141) – Rays (+119) | O/U 8.5
On Friday, the Yankees and Rays are set to face off in an AL East matchup at 6:50 PM ET. The Yankees are 25-14, and the Rays are 19-19. The Yankees are sending Clarke Schmidt to the mound, and he is 3-1 this season with a 3.50 ERA. As for the Rays, they are going with Taj Bradley, who was 5-8 last season and had a 5.59 ERA.
New York is 2nd in the AL East and trail the Orioles by a half-game. They are 6-7 in divisional games and 12-8 on the road. The Rays are 3-4 in the division and 13-10 at home. So far, the Yankees are 18-10 as the favorite and 7-4 as the underdog. As for the Rays, they are 14-15 as the favorite and 5-4 as the underdog.
So far, the Yankees are 3rd in homers and hitting .249 as a team. They are also 3rd in scoring and are averaging 5.2 runs per game on the road. Juan Soto is hitting .333 with 33 RBIs, and Aaron Judge is 10/22 in his last six games. As for the Rays, they are 20th in scoring and are hitting .244 as a team. Isaac Paredes is hitting .393 over his last eight games, and Harold Ramirez is 11/25 in his last eight games.
Tampa Bay Rays ML +119
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Diamondbacks (+117) – Orioles (-141) | O/U 8.5
Arizona is sending Brandon Pfaadt to the mound today, and he is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA. In his last outing, he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. Overall, he has a WHIP of 1.20 and opponents are hitting .262 off him. On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Cole Irvin, who is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA. He is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run and went 6 1/3 innings.
As for the offenses, Arizona is 6th in batting average and are scoring 5 runs per game. Baltimore is the top home run hitting team in the league and are 2nd in scoring at 5.2 runs per game. The Orioles are led by Gunnar Henderson, who is 10th in the league with 25 RBIs. Arizona’s Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have both gone deep seven times this year.
Overall, the Orioles are 24-12 and are in 1st place in the AL East, while the Diamondbacks are 18-20 and trail the Dodgers by 7.5 games. Baltimore is the favorite at -141, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. First pitch is set for 7:05 PM from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +117
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cubs (+113) – Pirates (-135) | O/U 7.5
The Cubs and Pirates are set to face off in an NL Central matchup at 6:40 PM ET on Friday. This one is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, where the forecast calls for light rain and temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Chicago comes in with a record of 22-16, while the Pirates are 17-21. Jared Jones will start for the Pirates, and he is up against Javier Assad for the Cubs. Pittsburgh is at -135 on the moneyline compared to the Cubs at +113. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Chicago is on the road today, taking on the Pirates with an overall record of 22-16, which has them 2nd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by just a half-game, and they are 2-1 in division games this year. The Cubs lost the final two games of their series vs. the Padres, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games. At home, the Cubs have gone 13-6 this year, and they are just under .500 at 9-10 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 10-5, and they are 12-11 as the underdog this year. Chicago’s overall series record is 6-4-2 heading into today’s game.
Pittsburgh is 17-21 overall, and they are 5.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Pirates lost the final two games of their series vs. the Angels and are just 3-7 across their last ten games. So far, they are 2-2 in divisional games.
Christopher Morel has been one of the league’s top power threats this season, as his eight home runs are the best mark on the team and 5th in the league. However, he is batting just .211 for the season and has gone 7/33 in his last 10 games. Michael Busch has been a solid run producer for the Cubs, as his 19 RBIs are the 2nd best mark on the team, and he is also 2nd on the team with seven homers. Over his last 10 games, Nico Hoerner has gone 10/40 with a home run and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting .273. Patrick Wisdom has gone 4/14 in his last six games, and Cody Bellinger has gone 3/8 in his last two games.
So far this season, the Pirates offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 3.5 runs per game. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 2.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .220, which is 21st in the league, and their isolated power of .109 is the worst in the league. Oneil Cruz and Edward Olivares come into the game on three-game hitting streaks. Cruz has gone 9/31 in his last nine games with two homers and seven RBIs, while Olivares has gone 4/23 in his last seven games. Bryan Reynolds is the team’s top hitter this season, batting .240 with four homers and 17 RBIs.
Right-hander Javier Assad is getting the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Pirates on the road. He has made seven starts this season and has a record of 3-0 with an ERA of 1.66. Opposing batters are hitting .203 off Assad this season. One of his best outings came on May 5th vs. the Brewers, where he pitched six scoreless innings and got the win. Assad has made two quality starts this year, averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has allowed a total of two homers.
Jared Jones has made seven starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 2.63. So far, he has made four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Against the Rockies on May 4th, Jones went seven innings, giving up just one hit, and finished with 10 strikeouts. Jones’ ERA at home is 1.5, compared to 3.61 on the road. Overall, he has allowed seven home runs. Jones is averaging just 1.1 walks per nine innings compared to 11.41 strikeouts.
Chicago Cubs ML +113
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Guardians (-114) – White Sox (-106) | O/U 7.5
Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Guardians are the favorites on the moneyline at -114 heading into Friday’s game vs. the White Sox. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs, with the first pitch set for 7:40 PM ET. NBC Sports is carrying the TV rights for this AL Central matchup.
So far, the Guardians are 24-14, and they hold a 1.5-game lead over the Twins in the AL Central. Cleveland is 6-3 in divisional games this season. The White Sox are just 10-28 and are 14 games behind the Guardians. Chicago is 3-18 vs. the AL Central this season.
Josh Naylor has been swinging a hot bat for the Guardians, going 7/22 in his last seven games with three homers. Overall, he is 3rd in the league with 10 homers and is 6th in the league with 29 RBIs. As a team, the Guardians are 8th in homers and are averaging 4.8 runs per game.
Carlos Carrasco is 2-2 this season and is coming off a start where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. So far, he has an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.62. Opposing batters are hitting .272 off Carrasco this year.
Garrett Crochet is 2-4 this year and has an ERA of 5.31. He has made eight starts and has three quality starts. Crochet’s ERA at home is 4.01, compared to 9.34 on the road. He is coming off a start where he went six innings and gave up just one earned run.
Cleveland Guardians ML -114
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Twins (-101) – Blue Jays (-119) | O/U 7.5
Friday night’s matchup between the Twins and Blue Jays is set for 7:07 PM from Rogers Centre in Toronto. Minnesota comes in with a record of 22-15, while the Blue Jays are 17-20. Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins, and he is facing off against Yusei Kikuchi for the Blue Jays.
Max Kepler has been red hot for the Twins, batting .480 over his last seven games, including two home runs. Ryan Jeffers has also been swinging the bat well, going 7/21 in his last six games, including three homers. Jeffers comes into the game with a team-leading eight home runs and 29 RBIs, which is 6th in the league. Edouard Julien is 2nd on the team in homers but is batting just .205 for the season.
Twins starter Joe Ryan comes into the game with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.54. He has made five quality starts this year, averaging 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings. Ryan has made a total of seven starts and has a WHIP of 1.01. The last time he took the mound, Ryan gave up three earned runs in six innings of work and took the loss. He gave up a homer in that outing. Opponents are batting .220 off Ryan this season.
As the Blue Jays get set to host the Twins, they want to improve on their 4-6 record over their last 10 games. At home, the Blue Jays are 8-7 compared to 9-13 on the road. So far, they have dropped two straight at home.
Looking at the Twins, they are currently third in the AL Central, and the Blue Jays are in last place in the AL East. Minnesota is 22-15 overall heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Blue Jays. The Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 in divisional games.
Justin Turner, Daulton Varsho, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all tied for the team lead with 16 RBIs. Varsho has been the team’s top power threat so far, as he is 7th in the league with six homers. Guerrero Jr. has a homer in his last five games and is hitting .333 over his last five games.
Friday’s game has an over/under line of 7.5 runs, and the Twins are the slight favorite on the moneyline at -101. Minnesota is 10-1 this year as the road favorite. Overall, the Twins are 6-4-2 in series play and have won five straight series. Toronto is 5th in the AL East, trailing the Orioles by 7.5 games. Overall, they are 17-20 and have gone 5-5 against other teams in the AL East.
Toronto Blue Jays ML -119
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Royals (-123) – Angels (+104) | O/U 8.5
Griffin Canning is 1-4 this season and has an ERA of 6.69. He is facing a Royals lineup that is 6th in homers and is led by Salvador Perez, who is hitting .328 with eight homers and 32 RBIs. Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .318 and has 20 RBIs, which is 4th in the league. Witt Jr. is 6/17 in his last five games with seven runs scored. Vinnie Pasquantino is 8/18 with nine RBIs in his last five games.
Overall, the Royals are 23-16 and trail the Guardians by 1.5 games in the AL Central. They are 8-5 against other teams in the division. The Angels are 14-24 overall and are 4th in the AL West, trailing the Rangers by 7.5 games. They are 4-12 at home and 10-12 on the road.
The first pitch is set for 9:38 PM from Angel Stadium of Anaheim. The Royals are -123 on the moneyline, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. The Angels are +104. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, and he is looking to make it three straight wins to start the year. So far, he has a win over the Orioles and Blue Jays and has yet to give up an earned run this season.
The Angels offense is 19th in scoring at 4.2 runs per game and are 8th in homers. Mike Trout has 10 homers but is hitting just .220. Taylor Ward is hitting .265 and has seven homers. Kevin Pillar is 4/13 with two homers in his last five games. Anthony Rendon is hitting .220 and is on a four-game hitting streak. Luis Rengifo has a seven-game hitting streak going.
Kansas City Royals ML -123
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Astros (-135) – Tigers (+114) | O/U 8.5
The Astros are the betting favorite, with moneyline odds of -135, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Detroit comes into this one with a record of 19-18, while the Astros are 13-24. The Tigers are 4.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead, and the Astros are 8 games behind the Rangers for the division lead.
Casey Mize is starting for the Tigers and has an overall record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.98. He is coming off a rough outing vs. the Yankees and is facing an Astros team that is 3rd in batting average this season. The Tigers offense is 21st in scoring and is hitting just .227 as a team. Riley Greene has nine homers for the Tigers, and he is 4th in the league in that category.
Overall, the Astros are 16th in scoring and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. They are also the top strikeout team in the league and have a team on-base percentage of .324, which is 5th in the league. Houston’s team OPS is 6th in the league.
As the underdog, the Tigers are 10-11 this year and 9-7 when favored. Houston is just 10-19 when favored and 3-10 as the favorite on the road. The Astros are 6-12 on the road this season. Detroit is 8-9 at home and has won two straight at home. The Tigers are 10-6 in divisional games, and the Astros are 5-5 in divisional games.
Houston Astros ML -135
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Cardinals (+116) – Brewers (-138) | O/U 8.0
Heading into Friday’s game, the Cardinals are 15-22, while the Brewers are 22-15 and lead the NL Central by a half-game over the Cubs. The over/under line is sitting at 8 runs, and the Brewers are -138 on the moneyline. Looking at the Cardinals, they are +116. St. Louis is 0-4 vs. division opponents this year and trail the Brewers by 7.0 games in the NL Central.
St. Louis is sending Lance Lynn to the mound, and he is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA. He has yet to take a loss this year and has a WHIP of 1.40. Lynn is coming off a start where he allowed four earned runs in five innings of work. As for the Brewers, they are turning to Robert Gasser, who is making his debut this year.
St. Louis is 29th in scoring, averaging 3.4 runs per game. They are also 22nd in batting average at .217. Nolan Arenado has been one of the few bright spots, going 8/22 with seven RBIs over his last six games. For the season, he is hitting .286 with 20 RBIs. Brendan Donovan has four homers but is hitting just .217.
As for the Brewers, they are 7th in scoring and have the 5th best team batting average. William Contreras is hitting .340 for the season and is 7/19 over his last five games. He also leads the team with 30 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins leads the team with eight homers, and Willy Adames is 2nd with seven.
Milwaukee Brewers ML -138
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Athletics (+123) – Mariners (-148) | O/U 7.5
Friday night’s Athletics vs. Mariners game is set to start at 9:40 PM ET and can be seen on NSPCA. The Mariners are the favorite at -148, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. The game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Paul Blackburn is on the mound for the Athletics, and he is 3-1 this season with a 3.00 ERA. Blackburn has a 1.51 ERA at home and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in seven innings. Overall, opponents are hitting .208 off Blackburn this season. As for the Mariners, they will be sending Bryan Woo to the mound, who is 4-5 with a 4.21 ERA this season. He will be looking to bounce back from his last outing in which he gave up six earned runs in four innings.
Overall, the Athletics are 18-21 this season and are 3rd in the AL West, four games behind the Rangers. Seattle is 20-18 and 1.5 games behind the Rangers. Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. On the other side, the Athletics are 20th in batting average but have the third most home runs in the league.
Seattle Mariners ML -148
Over Under Plays
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Dodgers (-174) – Padres (+144) | O/U 8.0
Michael King will be starting for the Padres today, and he is 3-3 this year with a 4.29 ERA. King’s WHIP for the season is 1.41, and he will be facing a Dodgers lineup that is led by Shohei Ohtani, who is 11/26 (.423) with four homers over his last seven games. For the season, Ohtani is hitting .355, which is the best mark on the team.
Los Angeles is the favorite on the moneyline at -174, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. The Dodgers are 26-13 overall and have won seven straight games. On the other hand, the Padres are 20-20 this season and are 6.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
San Diego’s offense is led by Jurickson Profar, who is hitting .400 over his last nine games with three homers. For the season, he is hitting .328 with 27 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Overall, the Padres are 7-4-2 in series matchups and have won three straight series overall.
Right-hander Tyler Glasnow is starting for the Dodgers today and is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA. In his last outing, he went seven innings and gave up two earned runs. Overall, opponents are hitting .173 off Glasnow this year. His ERA on the road is 1.70 compared to 3.87 at home. The Dodgers are the top-scoring offense in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game.
Over 8 Runs -105
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies (-203) – Marlins (+170) | O/U 7.5
Coming into Friday’s game, the Phillies are 26-12, which is good for 1st place in the NL East. They are 2 games ahead of the Braves and 3-3 against divisional opponents. The Phillies are 26-12 overall and are 15-7 at home and 11-5 on the road. The Marlins are 10-29 and are 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East.
Philadelphia is the heavy favorite on the moneyline at -203, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. The Phillies have been one of the league’s top offenses this year, averaging 5 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. Miami is 25th in scoring at 3.7 runs per game. Miami’s team OPS of .620 is 27th in the league.
Friday’s pitching matchup is Ranger Suárez for the Phillies vs. Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. Suárez is 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and has six quality starts. Rogers is 0-5 with an ERA of 6.15. In his last outing, he gave up eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. So far, he has given up at least one homer in three straight starts.
Two of the Phillies top hitters are Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber, who are 3rd and 12th in RBIs. Over his last eight games, Bryce Harper is 8/25 with three homers and 10 RBIs. Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz is 11/37 in his last 10 games and has three homers in that stretch. He is also 5th in the league with eight homers this year.
Over 7.5 Runs -111
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies
Rangers (-191) – Rockies (+158) | O/U 10.0
Jon Gray will be facing his former team, the Rockies, today, and he has an ERA of 2.50 this season. So far, he is 1-1 and has made seven starts. Gray is coming off a no-decision in his last outing, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs. He will be facing an offense that is 24th in scoring, averaging 3.7 runs per game.
As for the Rockies, they are 9-28 overall and are 16 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They are 5-9 in divisional games and have yet to win a series, coming in at 0-11-1. Colorado is 6-12 at home and 3-16 on the road. The Rangers are 22-17 and lead the AL West by 1.5 games over the Mariners. They are 8-9 in divisional games and have gone 12-8 on the road.
On the moneyline, the Rangers are -191 and the over/under line is sitting at 10 runs. Texas is the 3rd best hitting team in the league and are scoring 5.1 runs per game. Marcus Semien has been hot for the Rangers, going 11/25 with two homers and six RBIs in his last five games. For the season, he is hitting .286 with seven homers. Adolis Garcia is 5th in the league with eight homers and is hitting .268.
Colorado’s top run producer is Ryan McMahon, who is 15th in the league with 20 RBIs and is hitting .292. He is also 1st on the team with five homers. Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia are 2nd on the team with four homers each, but Toglia is hitting just .106 this season. Doyle is 3/19 in his last five games.
Under 10 Runs -113
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox
Nationals (+169) – Red Sox (-203) | O/U 8.5
Washington will send Patrick Corbin to the mound, and he is 0-3 this year with an ERA of 6.45. Corbin has only turned in one quality start this year and has a WHIP of 1.80. He will be facing a Red Sox offense that is 8th in the league in batting average and is led by Tyler O’Neill, who has nine homers this year.
The Red Sox are the favorite on the moneyline at -203, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Boston is 19-18 overall, while Washington is 18-18. The Red Sox are 5.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East, and they are 0-3 in divisional games this year.
Washington’s offense is 18th in the league in scoring, and they are hitting .231 as a team. The Nationals’ top two home run hitters are CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. Garcia Jr. is hitting .429 over his last six games, and Eddie Rosario is 6/16 with two homers in his last four games.
Friday’s starting pitching matchup will feature Tanner Houck for the Red Sox, and he is 3-3 with an ERA of 1.99. Over his last three outings, he has only given up one earned run in each game. Houck’s WHIP is .97, and he has a better ERA on the road compared to at home. He will be facing a Washington offense that is 14th in home runs this year.
Over 8.5 Runs -115
