Early Bestball Drafts Mean Early Bestball Values
If you’ve never played in an NFL bestball league, April may seem like an extremely early time to draft a fantasy football team. Of course, if you’re a bestball junky like myself, you’ve probably drafted in a number of leagues already. For the uninitiated, bestball leagues consist of drafting a large roster (18 or more players depending on what site you use). The highest-scoring players each week are automatically the starters of record for your lineup, which on Draft.com consists of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX (WR/RB/TE), with .5 PPR scoring and 18 total players per roster.
There are no trades, no roster management, no waivers, nothing to do but pay the league fee, draft your team and compete for a Top-3 payout. The most common entry fee is $10, and the most common league size is 12 teams, but there are a number of leagues available with both higher and lower entry fees and smaller league sizes. The low entry fees encourage entering a large number of leagues throughout the NFL offseason.
Drafting earlier in the offseason can have its downsides, like overdrafting or underdrafting free agent players whose value can skyrocket when they sign with an NFL team, or drafting players who experience season-ending injuries before the season even begins. It can also have a lot of upside if you familiarize yourself with the player pool, and identify players whose average draft position (ADP) doesn’t line up with their expected production.
From the bestball drafts I’ve completed so far, I’ve identified ten players who I think are values at their current ADP, many of whom could see their value rise as the offseason rolls on.
Nick Chubb – ADP 18th Overall/Pick 2.06
RB, Cleveland Browns
On February 11th, 2019, the Browns signed running back Kareem Hunt, and many fantasy speculators across the land wept uncontrollably while moving Nick Chubb down their rankings. This was an overreaction, even before the length of Hunt’s suspension was known. Nick Chubb finished the 2018 season as the RB15, which seems unimpressive until one recalls that he didn’t get over three carries in a single game before Week 7.
Chubb’s underlying numbers paint a beautiful picture for 2019. He finished 2018 as PFF’s highest graded running back with an overall grade of 87.5. Chubb avoided 49 tackles combined as a runner and a receiver, earning him a 103.3 elusive rating was also number one among all running backs with at least 100 attempts. He also has the gift of having been drafted by current GM John Dorsey, so he doesn’t face the threat of the ax that apparently just about every Browns player drafted before 2018 does.
The naysayers will point to the addition of Kareem Hunt as a reason to fade Chubb in 2019, but Hunt will be suspended for the first half of the season, and given a full offseason and eight games as the starter, the bet here is that Hunt will serve as the 1B to Chubb’s 1A even when he does return. Chubb also faced a stacked box of 8+ defenders on 34.38% of his carries, the 4th-most of any running back per NFL Next Gen Stats. With the addition of Odell Beckham to the Browns’ receiving corps, it’s likely that that percentage decreases significantly in 2019. The likely impending trade of Duke Johnson leaves 61 targets vacated, and Chubb should be the beneficiary of a decent portion of those, meaning an increase from his 28 receiving targets in 2018.
If you end up with a pick outside the top six in your bestball drafts, you’re likely to miss out on the top six running backs, who are currently Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Melvin Gordon by ADP. With Chubb’s ADP at around 2.07, the opportunity is there at Pick 1.07/8/9 to draft one of the top two wide receivers (DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams) with your first round pick, and still end up with an RB who could easily finish top-six in scoring. Alternatively, a draft start of James Conner/Nick Chubb or Le’Veon Bell/Nick Chubb allows you to target elite target-hog wide receivers in rounds 3 and 4, after which that shallow pool dries up quickly. Grab some Chubb now before his ADP rises.
A.J. Green – ADP 37nd Overall/Pick 4.01
WR, Cincinnati Bengals
A.J. Green played through a groin injury in the early part of the 2018 season, before suffering a toe injury in Week 8 that knocked him out of the following three games. Green returned for the Bengals’ Week 13 matchup against the Broncos, only to re-injure the same toe badly enough to require surgery. As a result, he finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in receiving yardage, disappointing fantasy investors enough to relegate him to the early fourth round of bestball drafts.
Injuries also limited Green to just 10 games in 2016, making him a poor fantasy investment in two of his past four seasons. The two seasons in which Green didn’t miss any games both resulted in Top-10 overall wide receiver scoring in fantasy, and it’s not as if his efficiency declined in his unhealthy seasons. His 2.40 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) in 2015 (via @PFF) was the 7th-highest mark among wide receivers. His 2.86 YPRR in ten games in 2016 was 2nd-best. His 2.09 YPRR in 2017 was the 10th best mark among wide receivers, and is 2.39 YPRR in nine games in 2018 was tied for eighth-best. Consistently landing in the Top-10 in YPRR is no insignificant achievement, as it is one of PFF’s most predictive metrics.
The emergence of Tyler Boyd in his 2018 sophomore season is another plus for Green’s prospects, as teams should be less inclined to devote extra coverage to Green. New head coach Zac Taylor presents a certain amount of unknown, but it’s hard not to see a coaching change in Cincinnati as a net-positive for Green’s prospects in 2019. Finally, while wide receiver touchdowns can have a wide variance season-to-season, Green has scored 8-plus touchdowns in each of his past four healthy seasons. He’s an established red zone weapon for Andy Dalton, and his 15 targets inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in just nine games in 2018 put him on pace for 27 over a full season.
Robert Woods – ADP 47th Overall/Pick 4.11
WR, Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods was the overall WR10 last season in .5 PPR leagues. He was the 13th-most frequently targeted wide receiver with 130 targets, and PFF credited him with only 2 drops, the fifth-fewest among all wide receivers with at least 100 targets. His YPRR of 2.05 was 14th among that same group.
In fact, Woods and Brandin Cooks ended up with similar numbers in a number of areas. Cooks had a YPRR figure of 2.07 to Woods’ 2.05, 1,204 yards to Woods’ 1,219, 117 targets to Woods’ 130, and Cooks had the 4th-lowest drop rate among 100-target wide receivers to Woods’ 5th-lowest. A notable difference between the two was that Woods spent 55% of his snaps lined up in the slot, while Cooks lined up there only 28% of the time. Woods saw a significant increase in his slot usage, up from 31% of his snaps in 2017, likely partially due to the fact that Cooper Kupp’s injury vacated a boatload of slot snaps. While Kupp could re-occupy the primary slot role in 2019 (he spent 59% of his snaps there in 2017), Woods should still see plenty of time in the slot.
When choosing between receivers with similar overall output, give me the guy who spends more time inside every time. He’s likely to see more favorable matchups with an opposing team’s third-best corner in addition to one-on-one matchups against linebackers. Cooks is currently being drafted at 42nd overall, or 4.07, so Woods is also the cheaper option, if ever-so-slightly. He’s a potential WR1, or at worst an extremely high-end WR2 available at the end of the fourth round. That’s value.
Derrius Guice – ADP 48th Overall/Pick 4.12
RB, Washington Redskins
Derrius Guice didn’t have much of an opportunity to establish his value in 2018, tearing his ACL during the Redskins’ Preseason Week 1 game on a 34-yard run that was nullified by a penalty. The one silver lining of Guice’s injury was its timing, giving him a full year to recover before the 2019 season begins.
Guice’s college performance was impressive by a number of different metrics. Defenders failed to tackle him on first contact on 37.1% of his runs, 13th among draft-eligible running backs via PFF. His athletic measurables at the combine didn’t disappoint, as he posted an 80th-percentile 4.49 40-yard dash at 5’11” and 224 pounds, which translates to a 91st-percentile 110.2-speed score via playerprofiler.com. He wasn’t heavily used in the passing game at LSU, but he was extremely productive when targeted, dropping only three of his 40 targets over three seasons. A number of sharp draft analysts had Guice as the number two running back in the 2018 draft class behind Saquon Barkley.
Adrian Peterson performed quite well in Guice’s stead last season, but the most likely 2019 outcome is that Guice and his second-round draft capital will receive a majority of team carries, with 34-year-old Peterson will mixing on early downs. With Guice’s ADP currently sitting at the end up the 4th round, he offers notable value to those with early-round picks. Starting with one of the top few running backs on the board, focusing on wide receiver at the 2/3 turn, and then taking Guice in the fourth has significant potential to net you two RB1s and two WR1s to start your team.
Tyler Lockett – ADP 73rd Overall/Pick 7.01
WR, Seattle Seahawks
While Lockett’s target volume didn’t increase, his efficiency improved dramatically. Via PFF, his YPPR went from a 74th-best 1.15 mark in 2017 to a 2.10 mark in 2018, which tied with Adam Thielen for 18th-best. Lockett went from catching just 26.7% of his 15 targets traveling 20 yards or more in the air in 2017, tied for 55th among 80 qualifying wide receivers, to catching 77.8% of his deep targets, tied with Michael Thomas for number one among wide receivers. Lockett didn’t have a single drop on deep targets, catching every one of them categorized by PFF as catchable. With Baldwin already having undergone offseason knee and shoulder surgeries at 31, and with a sports hernia surgery looking likely, it’s entirely credible to expect Lockett to assume an even larger share of team targets in 2019.
At an ADP of 73 overall, Lockett is being picked in an ADP range that includes wide receivers that have either never put together a Top-15 season (Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore, Corey Davis, Dante Pettis) or haven’t done so in 4 years (Alshon Jeffery). It’s also worth noting that Locket spent 50% of his snaps lined up in the slot last season, catching 89.7% of his targets there, a figure that led all wide receivers with at least 100 snaps. His brand of positional versatility should help assuage concerns about opposing secondaries with elite cornerbacks removing him from the equation. This is one player I expect to have many shares of this offseason.
Read more about Tyler Lockett’s 2019 Fantasy season here.
Mike Davis – ADP 93rd Overall/Pick 8.09
RB, Chicago Bears
Mike Davis was a valuable fantasy contributor in 2018, finishing the season as the RB37 in .5 PPR scoring formats, functioning as Seattle’s number two running back behind Chris Carson, while sharing that duty at times with Rashaad Penny. Davis will see a change in scenery after signing with the Chicago Bears in free agency, and joins a backfield that currently offers very little competition for rushing attempts outside of Tarik Cohen.
Mike Davis leaves what was a very favorable offense in terms of rushing volume in Seattle. The Seahawks rushed on a league-high 55.6% of their offensive plays, while the Bears rushed on the sixth-most 47.8% of their plays. The Bears offensive line represents an upgrade, earning PFF’s 14th-ranked run blocking grade at 59.4, while the Seahawks unit graded out to 55.6, ranking them 20th. Davis will almost certainly see a sizeable increase from the 138 snaps he saw with the Seahawks. By comparison, Jordan Howard, who Davis is ostensibly replacing in Chicago, had 297 snaps in 2018.
Davis is being selected by ADP as the RB46, well below his actual RB37 performance in 2018, when almost every aspect of his move to Chicago represents an improvement for his prospects in 2019. The Bears don’t have a first or second-round pick in the 2019 NFL draft, so the team adding a running back who brings with him early-round draft capital that would put Davis’ starting snaps at risk seems somewhat unlikely. In the eighth round of your draft, you could do a lot worse than a potential starting running back who should easily outscore his ADP.
Austin Ekeler – ADP 104th Overall/Pick 9.08
RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Current ADP rankings show that 40 running backs are being drafted before Austin Ekeler, despite the fact that Ekeler was the RB24 in 2018. Ekeler’s usage took a sizable leap forward in his second season; his snaps nearly tripled from 50 to 135, and his targets nearly doubled from 31 to 56.
Ekeler’s increase in snap volume came with some legitimate efficiency. He earned PFF’s sixth-highest overall grade in 2018 among 61 running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts. He was also notably efficient as a receiver, and his 2.15 YPRR was the third-best mark out of 50 running backs with at least 25 targets. Part of Ekeler’s devaluation is due to his role as the 1b to Melvin Gordon’s 1a, but he’s priced as a backup as opposed to a weekly contributor whose value would skyrocket with a Gordon injury. Gordon did miss Weeks 13-15 last season with an injury, but Ekeler missed time with an injury of his own that cost him Weeks 15 and 16, so his 2018 stats only represent two games as the primary starter with Gordon absent.
Ekeler gave his owners seven different weeks with double-digit fantasy point output, which almost no running backs being drafted in his ADP range can claim. In fact, only one running back within 12 picks overall before Ekeler’s ADP and 24 picks after can match that many “spike” games, and that’s Matt Breida, who is currently sharing a backfield with Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. Ekeler is an ideal Zero-RB candidate, and ultimately a valuable member of any bestball team regardless of draft strategy in the early rounds.
Ben Roethlisberger – ADP 119 Overall/Pick 10.11
QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Detractors point to the Steelers’ free agency losses to justify Roethlisberger’s depressed fantasy value, but the numbers suggest otherwise. In 2017, Le’Veon Bell was targeted 103 times and caught 85 passes for 655 yards and two touchdowns. Taking over for Bell in 2018, James Conner was targeted 67 times for 497 yards and one touchdown in 13 games to Bell’s 15 games played. The two backs had nearly identical efficiency in those respective seasons, Bell with 1.32 YPRR and Conner with 1.31 YPRR. Losing a wide receiver of Antonio Brown’s caliber is a legitimate concern, but due to Pittsburgh’s impressive track record at drafting wide receivers, they have an ascendant young player ready to step into the WR1 role in JuJu Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 1,426 yards to Brown’s 1,297 with an equal target share (161 targets to Brown’s 164) and higher efficiency at 2.08 YPRR to Brown’s mark of 1.94. Filling the number two wide receiver role remains an unknown after James Washington did little in his rookie season to cement that role, but given the apparent depth of this year’s wide receiver draft class along with the Steelers’ draft aptitude, they’re as good a bet as any team to select an instant contributor.
Nothing supports Roethlisberger’s case more than his guaranteed volume. The Steelers passed on a league-high 66.6% of their plays, while the Steeler’s offensive line earned PFF’s second-best pass blocking grade at 87.6. Roethlisberger had a clean pocket on 75.9% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league, and 29 of his 34 touchdowns were thrown from those un-pressured dropbacks. Given my preference to wait until at least the 10th round before drafting a quarterback, Roethlisberger represents the perfect target to fill your bestball QB1 role.
Delanie Walker – ADP 145 Overall/Pick 13.01
TE, Tennessee Titans
Delanie Walker missed almost the entire 2018 season after dislocating and fracturing his ankle in the season opener, and he’s not exactly a spring chicken at 34 years old. That’s reflected in his current ADP, as he’s being drafted as the TE17, behind several tight ends who are purely projections to put together their first fantasy TE1 season. Some increase in ADP is understandable given the severity of Walker’s injury along with his age, but his current price reeks of over-correction.
I suppose it’s easy to forget that in 2017 at age 33, Walker finished as the TE6 with 807 yards on 111 targets. He finished as the TE5 the year before, and the TE4 the year before that, and the TE8 the year before that. In 2017, his most recent season, Walker’s 1.83 YPRR was tied for 7th among qualifying tight ends. His 137.5 fantasy points was the equivalent of the WR32, just ahead of Robert Woods. The WR32 by ADP in early Draft.com ADP is Dante Pettis, who’s being drafted at 79th overall, or pick 7.07. While it’s a projection to assume Walker matches or exceeds his 2018 numbers, he’d still be priced about four full rounds below his value even with a decent drop-off from those numbers.
Marcus Mariota has been the starting quarterback for the Titans since 2015. Here are his top two targeted players on offense for each year of his career so far:
- 2015: Delanie Walker (133 targets) and Harry Douglas (72 targets)
- 2016: Rishard Matthews (108 targets) and Delanie Walker (103 targets)
- 2017: Delanie Walker (111 targets) and Rishard Matthews (87 targets)
- 2018: Corey Davis (112 targets) and Dion Lewis (67 targets)
In his one season without Walker on the field, Mariota targeted a running back with the second-most frequency, which doesn’t indicate that Walker’s target share will be usurped by anyone currently on the roster. With Walker expected to be recovered and ready in time for practice in May, it’s extremely unlikely that his ADP remains in its current range for long.
Mohamed Sanu – ADP 163 Overall/Pick 14.07
WR, Atlanta Falcons
It can be difficult to look at the Atlanta Falcons wide receiver corps and not get distracted by the outside duo of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Mohamed Sanu often ends up as the forgotten man somewhat, despite his 2018 finish as the WR31. While most teams’ number three receiver may not garner enough volume to have much fantasy value, the Atlanta Falcons are not most teams. They called a passing play on 63.7% of their offensive plays, the third-most often of any team. Sanu had the second-most snaps running a route on the team in 2018 with 565, just behind Jones’ 572, via PFF.
Sanu spends the majority of his time lined up in the slot (75.6% of his snaps last season), and what he lacks in touchdown upside, he makes up for with volume. He’s never scored more than five times in a season, but he’s averaged about six targets and 50 yards per game over the past three seasons. Sanu’s 1.48 YPRR tied him with Marvin Jones as the 52nd-ranked wide receiver in that metric, which is a higher mark than the four receivers being selected in the 12 picks before his ADP, or the five receivers being chosen in the 12 picks after.
Sanu had six different weekly fantasy finishes as a top 36 receiver in 2018, which means he finished as a starter in most bestball leagues for those games. He finished 3 of those 6 games among the top 24 wide receivers in fantasy scoring. That may not seem terribly impressive, but Sanu is priced as the WR62 in the 14th round. Targeting players with the highest potential ceiling for bestball leagues is a smart play, but ignoring the need to include shares of high-floor options is a mistake. Barring injury, Sanu is a near-certainty as the quintessential high-floor later-round wide receiver.
