10 Undervalued Deep Sleepers to Target Based on ADP

Tarik Cohen (RB) Chicago Bears, ADP 130 (RB50)

Cohen’s 2020 season came to a premature end thanks to a torn ACL, which limited Chicago’s pass-down specialist to just three games. In Cohen’s absence, David Montgomery ran the third-most pass routes of any running back, caught the sixth-most passes (54), and finished as the overall No. 4-scoring running back in PPR formats. 

Thankfully for Cohen, his torn ACL occurred early and he is expected to be fully recovered in plenty of time for Week 1. If that plays out, Cohen should reemerge as Chicago’s preferred passing-down back- a role that resulted in an annual average of 98 targets, 75 grabs, 919 scrimmage yards, and 5.5 touchdowns in his two full seasons in Matt Nagy’s offense. The addition of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields should also benefit Chicago’s offense as a whole.

Montgomery is highly unlikely to get anywhere near the targets needed to sustain RB1 numbers, especially with a healthy Cohen ready to resume his role. Even if Cohen receives just 75% of the targets he’s averaged under Nagy, he’s still a tremendous PPR value to target as an RB4/5 in the 10-12th rounds. 

Darrell Henderson (RB) Los Angeles Rams, ADP 135 (RB51)

We all remember when Cam Akers took over to wind down the 2020 season and that recency bias has caused Akers to jump up into the first round of many fantasy drafts. That’s an awfully expensive price to pay on the assumption that Sean McVay has seen the light and won’t employ more of a rotation. 

When we look at the games in which both of LA’s running backs received double-digit carries in 2020, the results are somewhat surprising.

Akers didn’t do much until November and December but averaged a healthy 14.8 PPR points in the seven games that he received 10 or more carries. Henderson also had seven such games and his numbers weren’t that off.

Henderson averaged 12.6 PPR points per contest when given double-digit totes. While not as good as Akers was down the stretch, the Rams don’t lose a lot when Henderson is in the game. McVay also seems to trust Henderson more near the goal line and Henderson was better in that area last season.

With Malcolm Brown and his five red-zone touchdown runs gone, that could be a role that Henderson acquires in 2021. Whether you’re willing to gamble that Akers can carry over that momentum and post RB1 numbers in 2021, Darrell Henderson looks like he could be quite an effective player too, and is being selected a full 10 rounds later. View Henderson as a solid sleeper with TD upside and a must-have handcuff for fantasy managers who select Akers early.

Michael Carter (RB) New York Jets, ADP 147 (RB54)

Rookie running backs often make or break a fantasy draft. Missing on a heavily-hyped early-round pick can destroy depth, but nabbing a James Robinson with a late selection can give fantasy managers a huge edge.

Carter has the potential to be one of those mid-to-late round rookie picks that pays off handsomely. Despite always splitting reps at North Carolina, Carter still put up back-to-back seasons with 1,000-plus rushing yards and had a terrific nose for the end zone. Carter also displayed terrific hands as a receiver and did not commit a fumble in either of his final two Tar Heel campaigns. 

With just fading veteran Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson ahead of him on New York’s depth chart, Carter has an excellent shot at emerging as the Jets’ top back sooner rather than later. His three-down ability paired with a new regime that wants to rebuild an entirely new, balanced offense, makes the fourth-round rookie a potential fantasy difference-maker that can be had way down in the 12th round or later of many drafts. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) Washington Football Team, ADP 191 (QB26)

One of the easiest guys in the NFL to root for, Fitzpatrick was actually having a very strong 2020 campaign before the Dolphins decided they understandably had to see what they had in Tua Tagovailoa. Fitzpatrick started Miami’s first six games and was averaging just under 20 fantasy points per contest, which would have ranked as the QB13 at the end of the season. 

While Fitzpatrick has certainly had a journeyman career, his aggressive style and leadership are a good match for what Washington wants to do, which is to take more chances downfield after being somewhat stifled by Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins a year ago. A quick look at FantasyData’s Advanced QB Metrics tells us that Fitzpatrick has the chance to thrive in that role. 

Fitzpatrick led all quarterbacks in deep ball completion rate (56.5%) and was tied for second with 4.8 air yards per attempt. Throw in an improved receiving corps with the additions of free-agent WR Curtis Samuel and third-round deep threat Dyami Brown and you have all the ingredients for an underrated passing attack and a grizzled veteran signal-caller who just might be able to post top-15 fantasy numbers this season. 

Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers, ADP 200 (QB28)

Kyle Shanahan paid an awfully steep price (3 first-round picks) to move up nine spots to nab Lance as the team’s next signal-caller. Considering Jimmy Garoppolo was already under contract and has been far from terrible, this wasn’t a pick Shanahan necessarily needed to make- nor is it one fantasy managers should take lightly. 

Back in 2012, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for a Washington team that made a similar deal, trading three first-round picks to St. Louis to select Robert Griffin III in the NFL Draft. Griffin started right away and posted top-10 fantasy numbers in Shanahan’s system. 

Lance has drawn some comparisons to a young RG3 for his running ability, but Lance has a much higher football IQ than Griffin did at Baylor and Lance is physically better suited to be a real factor in Shanahan’s run/pass option scheme. Early reports out of San Francisco indicate that Lance will be given every opportunity to unseat Garoppolo as San Francisco’s starter and if that happens, the North Dakota State rookie has legitimate QB1 potential as early as this season. 

Blake Jarwin (TE) Dallas Cowboys, ADP 207 (TE23)

Jarwin was slated to be the Cowboys’ starting tight end in 2020 before tearing his ACL in the season opener. In his absence, Dalton Schultz ran the third-most pass routes of any tight end and posted a solid 63/615/4 line on 89 targets. Those 89 looks ranked 10th in the league and Schultz ended the season as the No. 10 tight end in PPR scoring.

The vast majority of that production came without Dak Prescott in the lineup and Prescott flashed solid chemistry in 2018 and 2019, which led to Jarwin ascending the starting gig and being anointed as a sleeper prior to last season. 

With Jarwin expected to be fully recovered in time for training camp, there’s still plenty of time for the fifth-year player to rekindle that connection. While he’ll be behind a fantastic trio of wideouts and RB Ezekiel Elliott in the pecking order, Jarwin should see plenty of favorable coverage situations and could easily surpass the solid numbers Schultz contributed in 2020. 

Tyrell Williams (WR) Detroit Lions, ADP 253 (WR79)

The Lions are projected to be one of the worst teams in football in 2021 and that should lead to plenty of hollow passing production. With that in mind, it looks like the player who just might be Detroit’s No. 1 wideout is going undrafted in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. 

Tyrell Williams missed the 2020 season with a shoulder injury but has been a solid contributor throughout his career. Williams saw 119 targets in 2016 and posted top-20 fantasy numbers. After that, Williams’s production tailed off, but he still posted top-50 fantasy numbers in each of the next three campaigns. 

With Kenny Golladay in New York, the Lions don’t have a lot of competition to secure top dog status for new QB Jared Goff. Williams and Breshad Perriman should start as Detroit’s perimeter options and could both be solid best to top 90 targets. Even if Williams reverts back to his 2017-2019 form, where he averaged 66 targets, 42 receptions, 677 yards, and 5 scores, those are still solid WR4/5 numbers for a guy that is essentially free.