Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Before you jump into this article’s insights to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2020 BMW Championship, I encourage you to check out FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to elevate the builds for your daily fantasy lineups. All the best this week!
Last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST was a tough PGA DFS week for many users as the likes of DeChambeau, Morikawa, Day, Finau, and other elite players missed the cut – sending many lineups into the toilet. Huge congrats though to Dustin Johnson who won with authority shooting a -30 and winning the tournament by a whopping 11 strokes over Harris English. He seems to be gunning to win the FedEx Cup and lock up the $15M in winnings. The PGA Tour heads from Boston, MA, to land in Olympia, IL, for this year’s edition of the BMW Championship. The top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings get the honor of playing in this tournament, and the top 30 at the conclusion of the event move on to play East Lake next week in the Tour Championship. The past five winners at this tourney include last year’s winner Justin Thomas, 2018 saw Keegan Bradley win, Marc Leishman was the best that 2017 had to offer, Dustin Johnson won for his second time in 2016, and Jason Day was victorious in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The purse is set at $9.5M for this year’s tournament with the winner getting $1.71M in prize money and earning himself a whopping 1,500 FedEx Cup points, triple the usual amount of 500 in non-playoff and major events.
Course and key stats: This year’s tournament will be played at Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) for the first time – the track is a lengthy 7,366 yards, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass with some poa annua. Some of the key stats to focus on this week are Total Strokes Gained (over last 8-12 rounds), Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Birdies or Better Gained.
The field: We have a loaded field featuring the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to again be an A. There is of course no cut line this week so your golfers will all play four rounds unless they withdraw or are disqualified for some reason.
Notable storylines: Players will need to be inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings at the conclusion of this tournament in order to qualify for next week’s Tour Championship. Whatever player is number one in the FedEx Cup standings heading into next week will start their opening round at -10 which is a two-shot lead over the 2nd place golfer. Bryson DeChambeau won on this course five years ago for the US Amateur tournament, and Jim Furyk also won on this course back in 2003 when the U.S. Open was held at this same venue but of course, he isn’t here this week – just some food for thought.
Betting strategy this week: With no cut line to worry about this week, you can take on more risk for your lineups and play it more like you would for a WGC event. Also, keep in mind that it will be more difficult to build unique lineups with the smaller field, so by taking players with lower projected ownership (especially lower-cost players), you will give your lineups more of a chance to be original.
Best of luck for locking up some contest wins this week – here are my 15 picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well. Note: Past year’s results below stem from past year’s BMW Championship events, just keep in mind that the course wasn’t Olympia Fields so you can’t really go on course history at all this week.
The $10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K) – Johnson is getting hot at just the right time of year and is poised to win the FedEx Cup for the first time in his sensational career. He now has two wins over his past six starts and a runner up which came at the PGA Championship. If he plays similar to last week (hello 5 eagles!), then the rest of the field likely doesn’t have a chance to beat him. He was T57 in last year’s BMW Championship, T24 in 2018, T33 in 2017, he won in 2016, and was T5 in 2015.
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – Last week’s long course wasn’t supposed to set up well for Simpson but he still went out and finished T6 anyways. He has two wins on the season, 9 top 10’s, and finished 3rd two starts ago. His BMW Championship finishes over the past 5 years in order include T24, T6, T9, and he was T64 in 2015 – he didn’t get to play in 2016.
The $9K Range
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Hot, scorching, sizzling, whatever word you want to use to describe Berger is fine with me. He has a win and 7 top 9’s over his last 9 events including a 3rd last week. He hasn’t played a BMW Championship since 2017 when he finished T33, he was T10 in 2016 and earned runner up honors in 2015 in his first appearance. Next to DJ, he’s my favorite play this week.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Scheffler has really found his game over his last four starts going T22, T15, T4, and T4. He shot an outstanding 59 in round 2 last week which put him in contention before having a subpar weekend. He arrives at the BMW Championship as a rookie in the event, but his confidence should be sky-high at the moment.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Morikawa won the PGA Championship and lots of people were betting on him to win again last week but instead he looked lost and missed the cut. He still does have two wins over his past five starts and I think he should rebound just fine this week. He was T48 last year in his BMW Championship debut, and I foresee a much higher finish this week.
The $8K Range
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – English just keeps playing great golf and his best came last week when he finished runner up to DJ. He has so many finishes in the teens and low 20’s over the past few months and also has 6 top 10’s as well, making him an incredible value play this week. He last made it to the BMW Championship in 2016 when he finished T47 and he was T19 in 2015 – his best finish at the event.
Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – I was expecting big things from Wolff last week after his T4 at the PGA Championship, but he settled for a T44. He’s a rookie this week but should be motivated to have a big finish as he’s only 3 spots out of a spot in the Tour Championship next week.
Louis Oosthuizen (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Oosthuizen is picking it up late in the season as over his past three starts he has a T6, a T33, and was T13 last week. He was T11 at this event last year, T58 in 2018, T63 in 2017, and T17 in 2016. He’s a fairly good bet to finish top 20 this week, so for his price that’s not too shabby.
The $7K Range
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Palmer has played some of his best golf of the season recently having a runner up, a T8 (which came last week), and a T15 over his past four starts. He had a T43 last year, a T65 in 2018, a T4 in 2016, and a T23 in 2015.
Jason Kokrak (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Kokrak has been an afterthought for me for most of the season but over his past two starts he has a T15 and a T13, and this week sets up pretty well for the bomber as well. He was T19 a year ago and in 2018, and locked up T17 in 2016.
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Noren has really played well since late July with a T3, a T8, a T9, and a T22 over his past four starts. He has only played in the BMW Championship once, that came in 2018 when he finished T24, and I expect another top 25 this week.
The $6K Range
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Harman played quite well last week to earn himself a T11 thanks to his 64 in the final round. He was 68th two years ago, T40 three years ago, T14 four years ago, and five years ago he was T53. I don’t really like the $6K range too much this week, but don’t mind Harman and the two others below.
Brendan Steele (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Steele has three top 10’s this season, has finished no worse than T53 over his past six events, and does have a T6 during that span. He was 64th two years ago, T44 in 2017, T64 in 2016, and T13 half a decade ago.
Dylan Frittelli (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – The supreme ball-striker didn’t show off his talent last week and missed the cut. However, his previous four starts prior he finished anywhere from T18 to T33 so he certainly has the game to produce good results. He was T52 a year ago and will be making his 2nd start at the BMW Championship this week.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s THE NORTHERN TRUST
The $10K+ Range
- Bryson DeChambeau – Missed the cut
- Dustin Johnson – Won the tournament
- Collin Morikawa – Missed the cut
The $9K Range
- Xander Schauffele – T25
- Jason Day – Missed the cut
- Patrick Reed – T49
The $8K Range
- Daniel Berger – 3rd
- Paul Casey – T49
- Tony Finau – Missed the cut
The $7K Range
- Billy Horschel – Missed the cut
- Matthew Wolff – T44
- Harris English – 2nd
The $6K Range
- Denny McCarthy – T49
- Mark Hubbard – T29
- Henrik Norlander – Missed the cut
