Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Before you leverage this article’s insights to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2020 PGA Championship, I invite you to check out FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to enhance the builds for your daily fantasy lineups. All the best this week!
Since PGA Tour golf has returned from its break, many DFS users have had a challenging time putting together winning lineups and for good reason, as the variance has been very high from player to player. Last week’s WGC – FedEx St.Jude Invitational was much the same with many talented players struggling. Congrats though to Justin Thomas for winning the event with a score of -13. This week we turn our attention to the very first major of the season. It was supposed to be The Masters as per usual back in April but plans had to change, so we will see the first one of 2020 four months later than expected, and roughly 3 months later than the PGA Championship was originally slated to be. Nobody is complaining though as a major golf championship will immediately put any golf or fantasy sports fan in a good mood. The PGA Tour is in San Francisco, California, for the 102nd edition of the PGA Championship. The past five winners of this elite tournament from 2015 to 2019 include Brooks Koepka who’s won it the last two years, Justin Thomas was your 2017 champ, 2016 saw Jimmy Walker hoist the trophy, and Jason Day took the top honor in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The purse is set at $11M for this year’s tournament with the winner getting just under $2M in prize money and earning himself 600 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: This event will be played for the first time ever at the TPC Harding Park course in San Francisco, CA – the track is 7,234 yards, is a par 70, and the greens consist of bentgrass. Some of the key stats to focus on this week are Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards and Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards.
The field: We again have a world-class field on tap for this week with most of the best players competing. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+ as it’s top and bottom-heavy with loads of talent throughout, and we would expect nothing less at a major event. The field is full at 156 golfers this week for this prestigious event, and the top 65 players plus ties will make the cut to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
Notable storylines: Brooks Koepka will look to become the first back to back to back winner of the event since the 1920s, Jordan Spieth will look to complete the career grand slam (winning all four major tournaments), and Tiger Woods is after his 5th career PGA Championship victory.
Betting strategy this week: We typically see top-ranked golfers win majors and I would think that trend will continue this year. To win a big GPP you will most likely need the winning golfer on your lineups so you may want to deploy a stars and scrubs approach and start with the world’s best talent. If you want to try to have as many 6 golfer lineups as possible playing all four rounds then a more balanced mindset should increase your odds of accomplishing that goal, so staying in the $7K to $9K range is ideal. If you have a few lineups to play around with then do a combination of both to hedge your bets and hope for a profitable week. Note: Getting all 6 golfers into the weekend has proved to be most difficult since the restart with typically only 3-5% of lineups experiencing that reality, so no lineup is actually “safe” anymore.
Best of luck for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well.
The $10K+ Range
Bryson DeChambeau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – DeChambeau hasn’t wowed us over his past two starts, but prior to those he had 7 straight top 8’s including a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He can absolutely destroy a golf ball and a golf course on any given week. He has missed the cut at the PGA Championship the past two years and was T33 in 2017. Don’t let his poor results at this tournament discourage you though as he’s one of the best players in the world now and that won’t change anytime soon.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K, FanDuel – $11.6K) – Thomas has now won three times on the PGA Tour this season after last week’s WGC victory and is certainly a favorite to win this year’s PGA Championship which would be his 2nd major event win – his first came in 2017 when he won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC. He has 9 top 10’s in 14 starts this season, is elite throughout his entire golf bag, and poised to win more majors throughout his career. He was T6 in 2018, won in 2017, T18 in 2015, and has never missed a cut at this event.
Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K, FanDuel – $11.4K) – Koepka is the PGA Championship’s two-time defending champion and is coming in hot from last week as he finished T2 at the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational. He’s had a mediocre season by his standards, but he lives for major tournaments and we should see his A-game shine through this week in San Fran.
The $9K Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K, FanDuel – $10.9K) – Simpson is so solid throughout his game and I love using him for all types of events. He has two wins on the season, 7 top 10’s, and is coming off a T12 last week. He was T29 last year, T19 in 2018, 2017 he collected a T33, a T13 in 2016, and was T54 in 2015. He won the 2012 US Open and could still add another major win one of these years – perhaps this year.
Tiger Woods (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K, FanDuel – $11.2K) – Woods is a 4-time winner at PGA Championship events and although he likely won’t win number 5 this week, I do like him to have a nice finish. Tiger already has a win this season and has finished top 10 twice in his limited four starts this campaign. He finished runner up in 2018 and was cut twice over the past five years, but his game is in decent shape this season and he should see a top 30 this week I would think.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K, FanDuel $11K) – Cantlay has yet to miss a cut this season, has three top 10’s, and his worst finish is a T40 so he’s consistent and reliable. He was T3 last year, T27 in 2018, and secured a T33 in 2017. He’s an excellent ball striker which is key at this tree-lined and tight fairway course.
The $8K Range
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – Morikawa has a win this season by winning the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village, has 5 top 10’s, and 10 top 25’s over 17 tournaments. This will be his first PGA Championship played but does have major experience as he was T35 last year at the US Open. The young stud is poised for stardom in the not too distant future.
Jason Day (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K, FanDuel – $9.9K) – Remember this guy?! Day has really started to heat up over his last three starts by earning a T7, a T4, and a T6 last week. His game is in great shape and his back is holding up, so he looks like a decent start this week. He took home a T23 last year, a T19 in 2018, 2017 saw him have a T9, he was runner up in 2016, and he was victorious in 2015 at the PGA Championship – his sole career major win.
The $7K Range
Gary Woodland (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – Last year’s US Open champ has had a decent season for the most part with 6 top 10’s in 14 starts and has only missed the cut twice. He finished T8 last year, was T6 in 2018, 2017 saw him in the T22 spot, and he was a cut in 2016.
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K, FanDuel – $9.3K) – English has 5 top 10’s on the season, 10 top 25’s, and has only missed two cuts in 15 tournaments played. He last played this event in 2016 when he was T60 and was T48 in 2015 over the past 5 years. I believe he will outperform his salary numbers this week and is a great depth pickup for your lineups.
Adam Scott (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K, FanDuel – $10K) – We haven’t seen Scott since he missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March but he does have two wins between the PGA Tour and the European Tour this season. The 2013 Masters’ champ doesn’t play a ton but when he does he usually makes an impact and for under $8K on DK I really like the potential he brings to the table this week.
The $6K Range
Joel Dahmen (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8K) – I’m not super keen on the $6K range this week for a major event but do like Dahmen as he’s 16 for 19 this season with 9 top 25’s. He was T71 last year in his PGA Championship debut.
Lucas Glover (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – Glover screwed my top lineup in his last start at the 3M Open but prior to that missed cut he had finished anywhere from T21 to T38 in his previous five starts. He has made two-thirds of his cutlines on the season and I expect him to rebound nicely this week to make the cut and has upside for a top 40 finish.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8K) – Palmer is playing some solid golf at the moment, proof comes in the form of a runner up finish at The Memorial two starts ago and he was T15 last week. He has 4 top 10’s and 9 top 25’s in 15 starts this season.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s WGC – FedEx St.Jude Invitational
The $10K+ Range
- Bryson DeChambeau – T30
- Justin Thomas – Won the tournament
- Rory McIlroy – T47
The $9K Range
- Webb Simpson – T12
- Tyrrell Hatton – T69
- Tony Finau – T65
The $8K Range
- Patrick Reed – T47
- Gary Woodland – T57
- Billy Horschel – T25
The $7K Range
- Matthew Wolff – T49
- Marc Leishman – T52
- Ian Poulter – T69
The $6K Range
- Brendon Todd – T15
- Kevin Streelman – T35
- Ryan Palmer – T15
