Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Pull in data and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the 3M Open, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The 3M Open
Recap from last week: It was a thrilling week last week in Britain for the Open Championship with Collin Morikawa winning in his first look at the tournament – a massive congratulations to the young phenom who now has two major wins in just 8 career starts, wow! The course played easier than I expected and the weather wasn’t too bad at all compared to previous years, so players overall were able to score quite well, for the most part, none better than Morikawa’s -15 though. We won’t see another major tournament until The Masters next April, but at least the playoffs are just around the corner.
Preview for the 3M Open: The PGA Tour heads back “over the pond” from England to land in Blaine, Minnesota, for just the third edition of the 3M Open. The field is sort of what you might expect after a major championship, especially one that was held outside of North America, but I’m still excited to see how the likes of Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, and many others do this week. The tournament record is held by Matthew Wolff when he won two years ago in his rookie season – a single stroke over Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau, with a final score of -21. Winners here over the past five years include Michael Thompson in 2020 and Matthew Wolff in 2019.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $6.6M, the winner receives $1.188M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Twin Cities is 7,431 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at the 3M Open since 2019 ranges from -19 to -21, so you can expect the champ from this week to have a score that’s something similar – around -20 or so. Some of the core key stats to include in your custom models this week are birdie or better percentage, strokes gained: off-the-tee, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: putting, and driving distance.
The field: It’s always tough to come off of a major tournament because the following week usually sees a field that looks quite weak, and this week is no different. The good news is that there are some superstars and stars in the field, so there’s still some talent at the top and decent depth down the line to a certain extent. The Olympics tournament is next week as well, so that’s a negative with several excellent golfers gearing up for that competition in Japan. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C.
Three questions I have about the 3M Open this week:
How will the players who played last week in England do this week? – I’m always a bit bearish on players who are returning from competition overseas from the week prior – I think that some of them will do great this week, while others might not be all there mentally and underachieve.
Which players are the most motivated to do well? – Let’s be honest, this field is sub-par, and that can result in great golfers playing down to their competition. A player like Oosthuizen is playing amazing right now, but he’s used to playing in big tournaments mostly, so will golfers of his ilk mail it in this week? We will find out soon.
Will players on the playoff bubble bring their A-games? – The top 125 make it into the playoffs and we are just a month away from the three tournament spectacle. I’m looking at players on the bubble who are competing this week – guys including Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Brice Garnett, Bo Hoag, Cameron Percy, and others who are sitting around that elusive 125 mark, and wondering who’s looking to climb up with very few opportunities left before the first leg – THE NORTHERN TRUST is here before we know it.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We again have a full field of 156 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties will advance to the weekend rounds on Saturday and Sunday. I’m very much looking to go in the hybrid build direction this week as the top-ranked players in the field don’t have a huge amount of appeal to me, outside of Oosthuizen. Take a look at projected ownership on Wednesday, leave a few hundred dollars on the table, especially if you’re playing in the big GPPs this week, and don’t be afraid to go against the grain a bit either as it’s wide open for who will do well with a fairly new course to many of the players, a bunch of golfers are coming back from England so they could feel time zone fatigue, and I think a $7K player could win this week just as easily as a $10K+ one.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Louis Oosthuizen (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – If I had to pick one golfer to win this week, I would go with Oosthuizen as he has been electric since his 2nd at the Zurich Classic with two T2’s, he had a T3 last week at the Open Championship, a T8 at the Valspar Championship, and a T18 at the Memorial Tournament. He keeps gaining strokes in every stat category or almost everyone every single week, and it’s just a matter of time before he wins again. The only knock against him is that he could be a tad burnt out from the Open Championship last week, but that’s not really a legit reason to be off of him this week. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K) – He’s coming off a T8 last week which is tied for his best finish since winning The Masters last November, and he now has four straight top 25’s. Every part of his game is looking good again, we are just waiting until it’s all looking great again like when he was blowing everyone away from late last Summer until earlier this year. He withdrew at this tournament last year citing a sore back, so he could be extra motivated this year to finish strong, and he’s likely looking down at his competition and fired up to win again as we get closer to the playoffs in just a month from now. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Withdraw.
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – It was a tough call between Finau and Reed, but I went with Finau as he’s coming off a T15 last week at the Open Championship and he had a top 3 here a year ago. There’s no shot link data from last week so I can’t really say how Tony locked up his top 15, but I’m guessing his stats would look pretty good. He has had an up and down season, but I think he will go on another heater now the rest of the way and is a threat to win this week. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T3 and 2019 – T23.
The $9K Range
Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Wolff went through some mental health issues not too long ago, but he seems to be in a better headspace now after hearing him speak recently. He’s immensely talented and when he’s rolling, he can catch fire as well as any other player on the PGA Tour. He has the best history of any player at this event over the two years it has been on the schedule, and his recent T15 at the U.S. Open tells me that he can start dominating again at any time now and I don’t want to miss out. He has the tournament record at this venue – that should give him a lot of confidence coming into this week, plus he should be well-rested after taking the past few weeks off. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T12 and 2019 – Won.
Sergio Garcia (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Garcia went through a horrible stretch of play where he missed four straight cut lines, but he’s getting his mojo back again as he has three straight top 20’s – one came at the U.S. Open last month and another came last week at the Open Championship. He’s excellent off-the-tee, is a great ball-striker, and the short game is slowly starting to come back to where it needs to be for Sergio to have success. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Robert Macintyre (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – I liked him last week and he came through with a T8 at the Open Championship. He has made six straight cut lines on the PGA Tour including a T9 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event, and he had a T12 at The Masters in April. His price may seem a tad high this week, but it’s certainly warranted with his strong recent play, he’s a safe pick to make the cut line almost every week, and has good upside, as well. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $8K Range
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – McNealy is on a nice little stretch right now with four straight top 30’s including a T18 in his most recent start at the John Deere Classic, and aside from his shaky around the green play, is quite statistically sound right now. He was in contention to win at Pebble Beach and finished T4 at the RBC Heritage in April, so he seems like a fairly solid pick and flashes upside from time to time. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – After two straight T3’s at the Byron Nelson and the Charles Schwab Challenge, Kizzire missed three consecutive cuts, but has bounced back since with a T25 and a T11 in his most recent start at the John Deere Classic. He has six top 11’s this season so he can certainly pop at any given time, and that’s what I’m looking for from players every week. I also like that he has two decent finishes at this tournament, and I think we will see his best finish to date this week. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T46 and 2019 – T34.
Luke List (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – List has had a bit of a rocky season, but he’s in his best mini-stretch of the campaign with a T4 at the John Deere Classic and he’s coming off a T5 at the Barbasol Championship last week – both have less than average quality fields, yes, but he’s gaining strokes like crazy right now, and is in another weak field this week so I think he could keep it rolling once more. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T32 and 2019 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Hank the tank! He arrives in Minnesota with a T5, a T4, and a T8 over his past three tournaments played, and before that he had two top 17’s in four starts – he has now made seven straight cut lines and shows no signs of slowing down. His stat lines look very juicy aside from his average off-the-tee play – I’m going to keep riding him while he’s hot and I think you would be wise to do so also. He has good course history as well, and he’s in his best form ever – he’s likely my favorite DFS player this week with all factors considered. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T26 and 2019 – T34.
Troy Merritt (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – The Iowa-native had been playing some mighty fine golf before missing the cut last week at the Open Championship and at the John Deere Classic with three top 7’s in six starts including his playoff loss at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I think he should be ready to get back on the horse again this week – I don’t really like that he relies heavily on his short game play, but it works for him quite often and he did have a top 10 here two years ago, so he knows his way around this track just fine. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T7.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Vegas has three top 11’s in his last five starts including a runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship just over a month ago, and he has a good combination of cut-making and popping off. His off-the-tee, approach, and ball-striking have really been working for him since early May, and any gains in putting usually results in a strong finish. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Roger Sloan (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – The scrubs this week aren’t too pretty folks, but I tried to find you some value down low starting with Sloan. He has only missed one cut line in his last seven starts, and has three top 34’s during this span including a T21 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three weeks ago. His stats are pretty average in most categories but he did gain 6.5 strokes with his strong approach play last week, and is often a solid around the green player. He had a T15 here two years ago, and I can see him doing something similar this week if his irons remain hot. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T15.
Kevin Tway (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Tway is on a good little heater by his standards with three straight top 26’s including a T14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this month. He has lost strokes with his approach play twice over his last three outings, but the rest of the categories are positive, so he’s playing a well-rounded style of game which I can always get behind. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Cameron Percy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Choosing a third player in this range was a bit challenging, but I went with Percy who has made four cut lines in a row, has been inside the top 42 in three straight, and had a T11 at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. I’m big on approach play, and he has only lost strokes once over his last eight starts and has gained at least 3 strokes three times during this stretch. I think he’s a decent bet to make the cut again this week, and wouldn’t be a bad player to add to your stars and scrubs lineups. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s Open Championship
The 10K+ Range
- Jon Rahm – T3
- Brooks Koepka – T6
- Xander Schauffele – T26
The $9K Range
- Collin Morikawa – Won
- Jordan Spieth – 2nd
- Louis Oosthuizen – T3
The $8K Range
- Scottie Scheffler – T8
- Patrick Cantlay – Cut
- Patrick Reed – Cut
The $7K Range
- Matthew Fitzpatrick – T26
- Harris English – T46
- Shane Lowry – T12
The $6K Range
- Johannes Veerman – T46
- Stewart Cink – Cut
- Lucas Herbert – Cut
