DFS Golf Picks
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Absorb information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions, and examine FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your daily fantasy lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last month: We haven’t seen any PGA Tour golf since last year (really though, it was just a month ago), so many lovers of golf are excited to see the 2020-2021 season resume this week in Kapalua, Hawaii. The Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico was the most recent tournament we saw played, with Viktor Hovland winning by a single stroke over Aaron Wise – so congrats to Hovland and his wonderful smiles 🙂
Preview for the Sentry Tournament of Champions: All of the winners from last year in 2020 qualify to compete in this highly coveted tournament, plus the top 30 golfers from last season’s FedEx Cup standings also get an invite – a new addition to 2021’s tournament during pandemic play. This event has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1953 and is traditionally played as the first tournament each calendar year. The past five winners of the Tournament of Champions include: 2020 – Justin Thomas, 2019 – Xander Schauffele, 2018 – Dustin Johnson, 2017 – Justin Thomas, and 2016 – Jordan Spieth.
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $6.7M, the winner receives $1.34M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Since 1999, the Tournament of Champions has been played at the Kapalua Resort – Plantation Course – the track is a very rare par 73 (the only one on the PGA Tour, in fact), is a lengthy 7,596 yards, and the greens consist of bermudagrass. This is one of the easiest courses that the pros play every year and that’s very evident in the scoring as the winning score is often in the -20s – the tournament record is a whopping -31 by Ernie Els in 2003. Some of the key stats to examine this week are Stokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Bogeys Avoided, and Strokes Gained: Par 5s.
The field: The field is of course extremely small this week since only tournament winners from last season are eligible to play plus the players in the TOUR Championship. This year will see a record high 42 players tee it up and play all 4 rounds barring an unexpected withdraw or a disqualification. On a scale ranging from A to D, the field strength is an A with many of the world’s best players teeing it up.
Notable storylines: No golfer has won back to back tournaments here since Geoff Ogilvy did it in 2009 and 2010 – Xander Schauffele won in 2019 and was runner up last year after he and Reed lost to Thomas in a playoff. Defending champ, Thomas, together with his dad, won the PNC Championship a few weeks ago mid last month. 8 of the top 10 golfers in the world rankings are teeing it up this week in Hawaii, just McIlroy (4th) and Hatton (10th) decided not to play.
Betting strategy this week: This tournament typically features the smallest field of any we see on the PGA Tour, so you can really load up any way you want as all your lineups are pretty much guaranteed to earn 432 holes worth of fantasy points. There will be tons of duplicate lineups this week though, so it’s recommended that you leave at minimum $500-$1,000 on the table to have a chance at building unique lineups and winning a 1st place prize outright. Look at the projected lowest owned golfers this week and sprinkle them into your lineups to increase your chances of building unique configurations.
All the best for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – There hasn’t been any golfer better in the world over the past half-year or so than Dustin Johnson. He has 4 wins in his last 11 starts including the Masters and the TOUR Championship, he has three runner-up finishes in his past 7 starts, and he has finished no worse than T6 over that same time frame. Wow, just wow! He has also won this event twice and appears to be the obvious choice to win this year too. My only question is has he been resting since his huge Masters’ win or has he been putting in the time and effort to kick off 2021 in a strong way? My bet is the latter – expect to see DJ at or near the top of the leaderboard all week long. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T7, 2019 – T4, 2018 – Won, 2017 – T6, and 2016 – T10.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Thomas loves playing this tournament and the results have been nothing short of spectacular as he has won here twice in the last four years. His putting has been surprisingly strong so far this season and if this trend continues he should go on to win multiple times this year once again. So far this season he has a runner-up finish, a 4th (at the Masters), a T8, and two T12’s. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 -3rd, 2018 – T22, 2017 – Won, and 2016 – T21.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – Schauffele was on a heater last Fall when he went runner-up, T5, runner up. He has since cooled off a bit with back to back T17’s at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and the Masters, but he tends to play his best in smaller field events. Case in point, he won here two years ago and was runner up last year plus he has won other non-cut tournaments as well. If the warm Hawaiian breezes are blowing his way again this year, and I believe they will be, then expect another top 3 finish with the potential to win his second Tournament of Champions. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T2, 2019 – Won, and 2018 – T22.
The $9K Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – Simpson is almost always money in the bank for every tournament – he comes to play every time he tees it up. He won twice last season at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the RBC Heritage, he has four top 10’s in his last 8 starts, and I could go on and on with his accomplishments but I think you get the idea. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T8.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – Cantlay had a win two starts ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and is coming off a T17 at the Masters. He doesn’t tend to play a ton these days but when he does he makes his starts count with consistently high finishes and with wins sprinkled in. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T4, and 2018 – T15.
The $8K Range
Cameron Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Smith is flying high into Hawaii coming off the impressive runner-up finish at the Masters and he was T4 two starts ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. He’s also the defending champion for next week’s Sony Open, so he has good vibes from the country’s island state. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2018 – T17.
Joaquin Niemann (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Niemann is such a talented, young player who seems poised to have a very successful long-term career. He has 5 top 23’s over his past 6 starts, one of which was a T6 at THE CJ CUP – an elite tournament. He won the Greenbrier last season with a low score of -21 and had 4 top 10’s in total. He’s a rookie this week but should still finish top 20 at the very least.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Ancer has all of the tools and skills to win on the PGA Tour and that could very well come this year. Most recently, he has back-to-back top 13’s including a T13 at the Masters, was T4 at the Shriners last season, and also had two runner-up finishes last campaign as well. Much like Niemann, Ancer is also a rookie this week but I believe he will also finish top 20 and is a decent long shot to win.
The $7K Range
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – The Texan is coming off a T4 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, he had 11 top 25’s last season in 19 starts and 5 of those were top 10’s including a solo runner up finish at the Memorial Tournament. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T17.
Cameron Champ (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Champ won the Safeway Open last season and the long-bomber will likely see more wins in the years to come to add to that win and his victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2018. His most recent two starts include a T8 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and a T19 at the Masters’ thanks to two rounds where he shot 68’s. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T14 and 2019 – T11.
Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – Ortiz won for his first time two starts ago at the Vivint Houston Open, and followed that up with a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in his home country of Mexico. The 29-year-old has broken through on the PGA Tour and his best seasons are still likely to come.
The $6K Range
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – It’s sort of slim pickings in the $6K range so I will do my best to keep my builds mostly to the $7K range and above but I don’t mind Griffin as a value play. Not that it counts really, but he and Hughes (below) combined to finish runner up at the QBE Shootout last month, more than half of his finishes last season were top 25’s including 4 top 10’s, and he was victorious at the Houston Open. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T13.
MacKenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Hughes already has two top 7’s this season and he qualified to play this week by getting scorching hot late last season with three top 14’s in the three playoff events. Tournament of Champions finishes over the past five years: 2017 – 25th.
Robert Streb (Salary: DraftKings – $6.0K) – The final spot from the $6K range was a bit challenging for me but I decided to go with Streb who’s coming off the win at The RSM Classic back in late November – his 2nd win on the PGA Tour. He last competed here six years ago and finished T8, so he does have some successful experience on this track.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from the last PGA Tour event, the Mayakoba Golf Classic
The $10K+ Range
- Justin Thomas – T12
- Daniel Berger – T23
- Brooks Koepka – Cut
The $9K Range
- Corey Conners – T17
- Will Zalatoris – T52
- Abraham Ancer – T12
The $8K Range
- Sebastian Munoz – Cut
- Brian Harman – T30
- Patton Kizzire – T32
The $7K Range
- Peter Malnati – Cut
- Harold Varner III – 71
- Denny McCarthy – Cut
The $6K Range
- Hank Lebioda – T38
- Adam Schenk – Cut
- Tom Hoge – T3
