DFS Golf Picks
Take in the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Farmers Insurance Open, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Farmers Insurance Open
Recap from The American Express: It was an exciting finish to last week’s tournament as there were several players tied for 2nd place and within striking distance of Hudson Swafford late on Sunday afternoon, so it was looking like there was a high probability we would see a playoff, but Swafford made a clutch eagle late to seal the deal. Congrats to Hudson on his third PGA Tour win and his second at The American Express!
Preview for the Farmers Insurance Open: This event has been around for quite some time on the PGA Tour dating back to 1952 when Ted Kroll won the first edition, then called the San Diego Open, by three strokes over Jimmy Demaret to win the top prize of $2,000. This tournament has been held at Torrey Pines Golf Course since 1968, and it has been named the Farmers Insurance Open since 2010. This event features two courses, the South Course and the North Course, players play each of the courses on Wednesday and Thursday, and the golfers who make the cut play the South Course on both Friday and Saturday – be sure to have your DFS lineups ready to go for Wednesday morning, one day earlier than normal. The record at this event is held by Tiger Woods who shot a -22 in 1999 to win by two strokes over Billy Ray Brown, and -22 was also shot by George Burns in 1987. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open over the past five years include Patrick Reed in 2021, Marc Leishman in 2020, Justin Rose in 2019, Jason Day in 2018, and Jon Rahm in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $8.4M, the winner collects $1.512M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The South Course is a lengthy 7,765 yards and the North Course is 7,258 yards, both are par 72’s, and feature a combination of bentgrass (North Course) and poa annua (South Course) greens. The winning score here over the past ten years is -6 to -21, so the weather and course setup really determines how challenging the tracks are but don’t expect a birdie fest like previous weeks have been on the PGA Tour. Some core key stats to focus on this week, in order, including driving distance, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: around the green.
The field: We again have a full field of 156 players competing this week, and there will be a cut line to deal with after round 2 on Thursday where the top 65 golfers plus ties move on to play rounds 3 and 4. The field is fairly strong this week with players including Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, and other talented golfers also. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B+.
Three questions I have about the Farmers Insurance Open this week:
1. Lean on experience? Whenever there are events that feature two or three different courses, I tend to like selecting players who have previous experience from years past. This week will be no different for me, plus there are some players who have outstanding results at Torrey Pines, so I like the future prospects for those golfers.
2. Go with long hitters? The South Course is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour, and it’s no wonder that the top key stat for this week is driving distance. Since the South Course will be played three times this week, I’ll be after players who hit a long ball and have shorter irons heading into greens.
3. Will last week’s players be tired this week? What I mean with my question is will golfers who competed last week from Thursday to Sunday be a bit sluggish on Wednesday morning when round 1 begins – one day sooner than most week’s events? I don’t believe it will make a difference for most players, especially since there isn’t much travel involved between tournament sites. Don’t overthink variables like this one, for example, since they can’t be quantified and players are so head-strong and athletic these days that we got to give them the benefit of the doubt that they are ready to compete hard in any tournament they commit to.
Lineup construction strategy this week: It’s another big field this week but the talent far exceeds last week’s field, so it’s tempting to go with a stars and scrubs mindset to roll with two or three studs from the top, but you always want 6/6 lineups for all 4 rounds, so you might want to go with a hybrid approach to have talent throughout your core lineups. Look at how projected ownership is stacking up on Tuesday and find quality pivot plays if you want to avoid super-high owned players, and leave a few hundred dollars on the table to increase your odds of having unique lineups in the large GPPs.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K) – He has been very dominant at Torrey Pines over the years including winning the 2021 U.S. Open, he won here in his first look in 2017, had a runner-up two years ago, and has four top 4’s over the last five years. He had a bit of a hiccup last week “only” finishing T14, but I think he used the event more as a “rust remover” for this week, and he is a top ten monster almost every time he plays including six top 9’s in his last eight starts. The top-ranked player in the world should see more success at Torrey Pines this week, and he’s worth his high price tag. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7, 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T5, 2018 – T29, and 2017 – Won.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – Thomas will be making his Farmers debut this week and I fully expect that he will keep his heater going. He has five top 5’s in his last seven events played – just keeps ball-striking like a champ, has been solid around the greens, and his putting has been half-decent for a while now too. He’s overdue to win and he will lock one in sooner rather than later. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – He doesn’t play a ton these days but when he does he makes it count with two straight top 7’s including a T5 in his most recent start at the Tournament of Champions where he gained an insane 8.16 strokes ball-striking and lost 3.74 strokes with his putter, but still had that top 5 despite a cold flat stick. He has six top 11’s in his last nine starts, and even though he hasn’t had immense success at Torrey Pines just yet, he did have a T24 in 2015 and I think he improves on that result this week. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut and 2017 – Cut.
The $9K Range
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – He just keeps pressing for his first PGA Tour win and I think it’s coming at some point this year. He’s coming off a T6 last week where he gained 5.23 strokes ball-striking, and once he figures out his putter then he will be regularly in contention to win tournaments. He has four top 14’s in his last eight starts, and if he can build off of the success he had here a year ago, he could be hoisting the trophy come Sunday evening. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7 and 2018 – Cut.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – I love me some Sam Burns even though he faltered in his most recent start at the Tournament of Champions where only his short game looked good, but prior to that he was pure fire with six top 8’s in seven starts including his win at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he gained a ridiculous 14.45 strokes ball-striking. He won twice last year between May and October, and with his talent and complete game, he should be in the mix to win multiple times again this year. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18, 2020 – T49, 2019 – T40, and 2018 – Cut.
Marc Leishman (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – I’m not usually a Leishman type of DFS player, but he won here two years ago, and he has four other top 9’s here since 2010 including two T2’s. He has gained strokes ball-striking in six of his last eight starts, his putter has been solid over his last six starts including gaining over 7 strokes in two different events, and he seems like a sound option this week given his recent form, past results, and salary number. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T43, 2018 – T8, and 2017 – T20.
The $8K Range
Patrick Reed (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – The defending champ from last year relies heavily on his putter and wedges to get the job done, but I’ve accepted that fact and I’m good with Reed’s golfing identity as he’s a proven vet. He has two top 3’s in his last six starts, and while he likely won’t go back-to-back with a win this week, he has a solid history at Torrey Pines with three straight top 13’s and he has finished no worse than T39 since 2013 with one withdraw mixed in. He makes for an interesting player to include in your hybrid and balanced DFS lineups this week. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won, 2020 – T6, 2019 – T13, and 2018 – T23.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Palmer went through a tough stretch of play last season, but he’s getting his act together again now with three straight top 27’s including a T12 two weeks ago at the Sony Open, and he’s doing it the right way through solid ball-striking. He has an outstanding record at this venue with two T2’s in the last four years and he has finished no worse than T21. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T2, 2020 – T21, 2019 – T13, and 2018 – T2.
Max Homa (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – The Cali-native won just five starts ago at the Fortinet Championship where he gained strokes across the board including 7.81 on ball-striking and 6.92 with his short game. Homa won twice last year and both wins came in his native State, so he seems to step it up a notch while in California. He started his Farmers career poorly with three straight missed cuts, but had a T9 two years ago and a T18 last year, so he seems to have figured this place out and that should continue this week. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18, 2020 – T9, and 2017 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Justin Rose (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He isn’t the player he once was, but Rose is still putting together swell-looking golf cards, and has been playing quite well over his last six starts with three top 12’s and finishing no worse than T57. He missed the cut here in his most recent look at Torrey Pines in 2020, but he won three years ago, and had top 8’s in the previous two years, as well. I wouldn’t expect a huge finish for him this week but I think he will finish inside the top 30 and offers good upside for a top 10 result. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Won, 2018 – T8, and 2017 – T4.
Luke List (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – List has been really playing excellent golf over his last five starts with three top 11’s, and his ball-striking is leading the way. He has finished no lower than T40 here over the last four years and has two top 12’s including a T10 last year where he gained 7.60 strokes ball-striking. I like his mid-tier value, he hits a long ball which is a big positive on the South Course, and converging trends suggest he will fair quite well this week. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T10, 2020 – T36, 2019 – T40, 2018 – T12, and 2017 – Cut.
Cam Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Show me courses where distance matters but accuracy doesn’t too much and I’ll tell you about my admiration for Cam Davis. He won last July for the first time on the PGA Tour at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit and while he hasn’t been as good since, he did have a T10 at the Tournament of Champions in a stacked field and followed that up with a T27 at the Sony Open. He has finished anywhere from T32 to T58 here over the last four years, and I think he will fall somewhere in that same range again this week, but could absolutely crack the top 30 and offer great value to his DFS investors. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T32, 2020 – T36, 2019 – T57, and 2018 – T58.
The $6K Range
Joseph Bramlett (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – I don’t really like the $6K range too much this week, so it’s certainly a top-heavy field, but I don’t mind a few players in it including Bramlett who won the Korn Ferry Tour last September and has two top 33’s in his last two starts thanks to sharp ball-striking where he’s gained at least 6.40 strokes in both tournaments. He finished T18 here a year ago and got it done via solid ball-striking and putting, my two favorite ingredients for success on the PGA Tour. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18 and 2020 – T45.
Vincent Whaley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – I’m looking for consistent cut makers in the $6K range this week, and they are quite honestly few and far between, but Whaley is a bright spot thanks to 7 consecutive tournaments where he’s played the weekend and he has three top 17’s mixed in there. He hasn’t played weekend golf at this event just yet in two starts, but I think he breaks through this week and extends his cuts make streak to eight. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2020 – Cut.
Adam Svensson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Svensson is a player to watch on the PGA Tour as he has a tight approach game and putts fairly well too. He finished T7 two starts ago at the Sony Open thanks to gaining 6.13 on approach and 3.79 with his putter, and while he wasn’t as sharp last week, he still finished T49. He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, and while I don’t think the Canadian is ready to win just yet on the PGA Tour, he’s worth tracking and using in DFS lineups when you need a low-cost player who has promise. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T35.
