The improvised PGA Tour schedule (post-break) finally sees its first major change. This week was originally supposed to be the John Deere Classic in Silvis, IL. Changes were made as the tournament was officially canceled in late May as the host was unable to go through with the tournament. Looking to fill that slot in a hurry, Muirfield Village GC, home of the Memorial, stepped up to play host this week the first (and most likely last) edition of the Workday Charity Open. This will be back to back weeks in which Muirfield Village GC hosts a PGA event, as the Memorial will be played next week. There will be a few slight changes from this week to next, but it’s safe to say that the course will be more difficult a week from now once they let the rough grow out. It’s rare that we have a situation like this on the PGA Tour schedule, but given the way 2020 has gone, it should come as no surprise.
Though there is a different tournament name, it is safe to refer to course history from the Memorial and consider Patrick Cantlay the defending champion. The PGA Tour’s site has no course history or past results if you go directly to the Workday Charity Open’s home page. It just features the field, a modified version of the course (no yardage), and tee times. Since I’m treating this at the Memorial, here are some stats that I will be focusing on this week:
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach the Green
- Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
- Sand Saves (SS%)
- Proximity from 175-200 yards
Recent winners and other golfers who had success here fared extremely well in the five stat categories above. Last year’s winner, Patrick Cantlay, finished 5th in SG: Approach, T3 in P4 Efficiency (450-500 yards), T11 in GIR, T6 in SS%, and 2nd in Proximity from 175-200. The top four finishers from last year’s Memorial were inside the top eight in SG: Approach, and T13 or better in P4 Efficiency (450-500 yards). These five stats show consistency in success at Muirfield Village GC and should be weighed heavily when building your DraftKings roster.
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Justin Thomas ($11,100)
We’re going to start with the only player priced above $11,000 on DraftKings this week. Justin Thomas took last week off at the Rocket Mortgage Classic following his missed cut at the Travelers Championship. Prior to that missed cut, Thomas had turned in back to back top-10 finishes in his first two appearances following the COVID break. He’s had an up and down course history at Muirfield Village GC, where he is 3/6 lifetime. Thomas missed the cut here last year but had back to back top-10 finishes before that (T8/T4). He ranks inside the PGA Tour’s top-10 in both SG: Approach, and SS% this season. Look for Thomas to bounce back from his missed cut at the Workday Charity Open.
Collin Morikawa ($9,200)
Another golfer who let DFS owners down at the Travelers Championship is Collin Morikawa. Before his missed cut two weeks ago, Morikawa was automatic. He made 24 consecutive cuts worldwide to start his professional career. He finished second in the first event back from break, losing in a playoff to Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Morikawa has never played at Muirfield Village GC as he will be making his debut this week. We have seen first-timers have success here so there is nothing to worry about there. When looking at the key stats, Morikawa currently ranks third in SG: Approach and T13 in Proximity form 175-200. Over the past 36 rounds, he is the top-ranked golfer in the field when plugging these stats into my custom model. Beginning your DraftKings lineup with Thomas and Morikawa leaves you with an average of $7,425 for your remaining four spots.
Adam Hadwin ($8,200)
Since returning from the break, Adam Hadwin is 3/3 and coming off of his best finish of the calendar year (T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic). Hadwin has played at Muirfield Village GC in each of the past five years, missing just one cut in that span (2017). His T11 finish back in 2016 is his best at the Memorial to date but will look to improve that this year. Hadwin checks the boxes on a majority of the key stats, ranking second on the PGA Tour in SS%, T8 in P4 Efficiency (450-500), and 10th in GIR. He’s riding hot into a course that he knows well.
Also Consider: Gary Woodland ($8,300) has made four straight cuts at Muirfield with two top-25 finishes. Ranks inside the top-10 in both SG: Approach (10th) and GIR (8th).
Bud Cauley ($7,100)
We last saw Bud Cauley at the Travelers Championship, where he withdrew following his Thursday round of 69 (-1). Denny McCarthy tested positive for COVID-19 that next morning and Cauley withdrew and took an additional week off as a precaution (though he tested negative). When running my custom model with the five key stats above over the past 36 rounds, Cauley ranks third in the entire field. This season he is fourth in SS%, and 27th in SG: Approach. He has missed just one cut in five attempts lifetime at the Memorial with his best finish coming last year (T9). Priced at just $7,100 on DraftKings, Cauley brings the key stats, and the type of course history we’re looking for in an affordable range.
Also Consider Emiliano Grillo ($7,200), who has also had tons of success at Muirfield. He is 4/4 with three finishes T23 or better. Third on tour this season in GIR and T13 in SG: Approach.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,800)
PGA Tour rookie, Matthew NeSmith will be making his debut at Muirfield Village GC this week. Some may recognize his name, as it sat near the top of the RBC Heritage’s leaderboard for a majority of the first two rounds. NeSmith went into the weekend in a tie for sixth place before falling behind the field with a 73 on Saturday. He missed the cut at the Travelers Championship but was 2/2 off of the break. NeSmith ranks inside the PGA Tour’s top-25 in both SG: Approach (22nd) and GIR (19th). When running my custom model with all five stat categories over the past 36 rounds, NeSmith came in just behind Morikawa as the second-ranked player in the field. He provides nice salary relief giving you the ability to roster two golfers near the top of the board.
Also Consider: Russell Knox ($6,600) has to bounce back eventually. He’s missed seven straight cuts dating back to February and is priced as such. Knox has played well at Muirfield over the years, making the cut in each of the past five years. Even with his struggles this season, Knox still ranks inside the top-40 in SG: Approach, GIR, and P4 Efficiency (450-500). Consider Knox as a flier in GPP’s this week on DraftKings.
