Seeing John Deere Green: Top 2024 JDC DFS Plays
Last week was a rough one, not just for me, but for many in the DFS/Betting Golf scene. The tournament didn’t play like the typical birdie fest, and the course proved to be more challenging than expected. Nevertheless, this week we turn our focus to TPC Deere Run and the John Deere Classic for another interesting week of golf.
- Field: 156 Players
- Cut: Top 65 and ties
- First Tee: Thursday, July 4th
- Defending JDC Champion: Sepp Straka
TPC Deere Run is a renowned golf course located in Silvis, Illinois, and is well-known for hosting the annual John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour. This par-71 course spans 7,258 yards, offering a challenging yet picturesque setting for golfers. Designed by former PGA Tour professional D.A. Weibring, TPC Deere Run opened in 2000 and quickly gained recognition for its unique layout and strategic elements, reflecting Weibring’s deep understanding of the game. The course is set against the rolling landscape of the Rock River Valley, incorporating natural landforms and mature trees, which contribute to its stunning visual appeal and challenging play. In addition to its initial design, TPC Deere Run has undergone several enhancements to maintain its competitive edge and playability. Over the years, minor renovations have been carried out to update and refine various aspects of the course, ensuring it remains in top condition for both professional tournaments and recreational play. These updates have included improvements to the greens, bunkers, and fairways, enhancing the overall experience for golfers. TPC Deere Run continues to be celebrated not only for its challenging design but also for its commitment to preserving the natural beauty and integrity of the course. This course presents similar key stats for players as DGC last week but focuses a bit more on the specific elements I have listed below!
Driving Accuracy
The fairways are relatively wide and not too hard to hit here at TPC Deere Run. The issue is when you miss the fairway, things get difficult quick. On average, golfers lose roughly 0.5 strokes by hitting it into the 4” fescue/bluegrass mix. This rough length is roughly the same we saw at DGC, but much more punishing likely due to how thick it is. Overall, this course plays as one of the 5 hardest second-shot courses when you hit it into the rough. All this to say that hitting it in the fairway this week will be a massive helping hand.
SG: ARG/Putting
I combined these two stats this week because they are both very important. Top finishers at this tournament the past 4 years averaged 4+ strokes gained to the field when combining these stats. The runoff areas surrounding greens are typically kept shorter but seem to always confuse players. Due to elevated greens throughout the course, if an approach shot is off golfers will need their best ARG game to avoid big numbers. In the same way, avoiding 3-putts and gaining strokes putting are key because the greens are not that challenging when they are hit in regulation.
Approach
Approach is key this week for reasons similar to what I mentioned above. Most greens at TPC Deere Run are elevated. Their runoff areas tend to fall off hard and despite being mowed short, they continuously befuddle golfers. When looking at previous winners and top finishers, all tend to be good approach players. While it isn’t the most important stat for winning, it gives players a major advantage if they hit their landing zones and avoid having to chip on. Look for players with solid SG:APP to find their way to the top of the leaderboard.
Given how last week went for me, I am going to base my picks this week more off of recent form, stats, and course fit than course history. I also plan on keeping my player write ups short because a deeper analysis in this weak of a field may have been what hurt me last week! Enough talking on my end, my favorite plays are below!
$10K and Up: $10.3K – Sungjae Im
When Patrick Cantlay decided to WD from the event, a weak price range got even worse. With Jordan Spieth as the highest price golfer, our options are slim. In the end, Im seems like the best option up here. He ranks 14th in this field in putting, 15th in Good Drives, 16th in GIR, 23rd in SG:ARG, and 10th in SG:Tot. These are all key stats I am looking at this week, and for him to be that high in these categories it peaks my interest. His recent form has seen him finish top-10 in 4 of the last six events, with his only two misses being at Majors for which he didn’t really fit the course. The course fit rankings I looked at this week actually have him ranked first, this was the deciding factor in choosing him of Aaron Rai. I am expecting another solid showing this week for Sungjae that could present as his first PGA win since October 2021.
$9K Range: $9.5K – Denny McCarthy
I hate paying this price tag for Denny, but I truly believe he can get his first PGA Tour win this week. When I think of a course that fits his game, TPC Deere Run would be one of the best. HIs approach play and accuracy off the tee are both respectable and he ranks in the top half of the field for both SG:APP and Good Drives. What he truly excels at are putting (first in the field) and SG:ARG (30th in this field). His historical ARG numbers are better than he has been playing this year so his ceiling here is high. With back-to-back T6 finishes here and a course fit rank of 11 this week, I will being paying this shocking price tag for McCarthy.
$8K Range: $8.4K – Mark Hubbard
Quietly having a solid season, Hubbard has not missed a cut yet this calendar year. He is never going to be the flashy play that gets a lot of people talking, but he has proven to be a great play week after week. In his newsletter this week, Rick Gehman (Golf Analyst, CBS Sports) mentioned Hubbard has returned 2.84 points/$ of DK salary this year ranking him behind only Scottie, Xander, and Rory. None of his stats will jump off the page at you but he ranks top-50 or better in SG:P, SG:APP, Good Drives, SG:ARG, and SG:Tot. Combine his stats with his back-to-back top 15 finishes here and his top-10 rank in course fit; Hubbard seems to be a steal at this price. I will likely be overweight to the field in ownership this week for a golfer I feel could have easily been priced higher.
$7K Range: $7.5K – Neal Shipley
I’ll be honest, this feels a bit like a buy low spot on Shipley. I mean, this year he won the Low Amateur at both The Masters and US Open. Luke Clanton is $1100 more expensive and lost to Shipley at the US Open and only finished 3 strokes better than him last week. We have a small sample size for Shipley, but he has shown the ability to gain strokes on Approach and ARG. He ranks top-35 in this field for GIR and SG:ARG. He hasn’t been around long enough to qualify for the course fit rankings I use, but If he can continue to be accurate off the tee (positive to the field last 2 tournaments) Shipley should be on his way to another great finish. Given how new his is to the TOUR, I expect him to still not be overly owned despite the cheap price.
$6K Range: $6.9K – David Skinns
This pick was a tough choice between Skinns and Patton Kizzire and I actually wouldn’t be upset with either in DFS this week. I ended up using course fit rankings to make my final decision, at 35 Skinns ranked a full 50 places better than Kizzire. Again looking purely at stats, in this field Skinns ranks 14th in SG:P, 6th in SG:APP (Top 50 from 100-125/125-150), 18th in GIR, and 37th in Good Drives. His finishes in his last four events are T20-CUT-T21-T17, a very nice stretch for the Englishman. If anything worries me it’s that he can be a bit inaccurate off the tee but he has shown the ability to be accurate driving the ball. In a range filled with question marks, I will gladly back Skinns this week.
