Bold Predictions: Week Two
Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. This column will present four bold predictions each week of the NFL regular season. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and that could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, advanced metrics, coaching changes, and other information. With this in mind here are four bold predictions for Week 2.
1. Josh Allen Finishes as the top Fantasy QB
Josh Allen’s performance in the Bills epic comeback win against the New York Jets had many positives and negatives. He completed 24 of 37 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and turned 10 rushing attempts into 38 yards and one touchdown. Allen also had two fumbles, but it was the manner in which the Bills rallied after three quarters on inefficiency is what has caught everyone’s attention. The team’s comeback began with a 43-yard field goal followed by two touchdown drives. Allen’s ability to throw the deep ball and his rushing ability was on full display against a Jets defense that appeared to have a stranglehold on the Bills offense. He would have finished just inside the fantasy top-10 without the turnovers and fumbles.
QB Josh Allen: “No one on our team flinched when we were down at halftime. This isn’t how we want to win every week, but this is the definition of a team effort.” #BUFvsNYJ #GoBills pic.twitter.com/u4MJnunXlf
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 8, 2019
The Bills offensive line struggled to protect Allen finishing the game with the fourth-lowest protection rate (69%) according to our advanced metrics. He only completed 33.3 percent of his passes when under pressure. Allen only had five pass attempts of 20 yards or more due to the protection issues. One of those was to John Brown who beat one on one coverage downfield to reel in a 38-yard touchdown with less than three minutes to play.
The Bills face the New York Giants in Week 2. It would be prudent for the Buffalo offense to start the game by attacking the Giants defense with the vertical passing game. This is a defense that was eviscerated by Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott to the tune of 405 passing yards. Allen will have an opportunity to display his passing and rushing ability against the Giants defense. His receivers finished Week 1 with the seventh-highest average target separation (2.11 yards). The Cowboys finished 18th in this advanced metric with 1.5 yards. Allen can be viewed as a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
2. Matt Breida Finishes as a top-five Fantasy RB in PPR Formats
Matt Breida finished Week 1 with 15 rushing attempts for 37 yards in the San Francisco 49ers Week 1 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He ranked in the top-10 last season at his position in yards per touch, breakaway runs, and breakaway run rate. Breida is also very good as a receiver out of the backfield finishing with 31 targets, 27 receptions, and no drops. Once Tevin Coleman was ruled out with a high ankle sprain Breida led the 49ers backfield. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo also struggled. He missed several open receivers downfield and threw a terrible interception that was returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo completed 18 of 27 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown. The 49ers face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.
The Bengals defensive line performed very well against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. The unit sacked QB Russell Wilson four times and all four of their starting defensive linemen graded out above average or higher according to Pro Football Focus. The Bengals secondary can be exploited and the 49ers offensive line graded out very highly according to PFF in pass protection. The 49ers run blocking is an area of opportunity, but Breida’s ability as a receiver out of the backfield will be leaned upon more in this matchup. The San Francisco wide receivers struggled to create separation on their targets from Garppolo. The average at the WR position was at 1.6 yards according to our advanced metrics. Marquise Goodwin and Richie James were below that average while Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne were above. The 49ers would be wise to try to get Breida in space given how weak the Bengals linebackers and cornerbacks are. Over a late-season four-game stretch last season, he caught 14 of 16 targets for 162 receiving yards and a touchdown. The offense should run through Breida and tight end George Kittle. This would allow Garoppolo to build confidence and build on his low true passer rating (70). This QB rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes.
3. Tyrell Williams Finishes as a top-five Fantasy Wide Receiver in PPR Formats
Tyrell Williams caught six of seven targets for 105 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The spotlight was on him as the Oakland Raiders’ new No. 1 receiver and Williams delivered. He led the team in air yards and finished with a 100 percent true catch rate. This metric divides total receptions by total catchable targets. Williams also averaged an impressive five yards per pass route and 3.21 fantasy points per target.
Those rostering Tyrell Williams have to be feeling pretty good right now considering where they drafted him. He finished in the top-15 in both Fantasy Points per Target and Yards per Target over the last 2 seasons. @FantasyDataNFL @TheAthleticFS pic.twitter.com/OT6EjIdqEr
— Moody (@EricNMoody) September 7, 2019
The Raiders face the Chiefs on Sunday in a matchup with a 53 point total. Kansas City’s defense is still a liability. This unit struggled against rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew after Nick Foles left the game with an injury. Oakland is expected to trail in a high number of games this season which bodes well for Williams’ outlook in Week 2 and beyond.
4. Mike Gesicki Finishes as a top-five Fantasy Tight End in PPR Formats
Gesicki caught two of six targets for 31 yards against the Baltimore Ravens. His 23 pass routes run was more than Travis Kelce (21) and George Kittle (20). The Dolphins are using Gesicki more as a receiver and not as a blocker. The second-year tight end struggled with drops and inaccurate passes from QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. Gesicki is the most athletically gifted tight end on the roster. The light bulb will come on sooner rather than later for him. The Patriots are heavy favorites Sunday when they visit a Dolphins team who were humiliated by the Ravens. The loss was so demeaning that reports surfaced that multiple veteran players requested for trades. Gesicki will continue to be heavily targeted as the Dolphins play from behind. Did you know the total has gone over in 15 of the Dolphins last 21 home games?
Do you agree or disagree with these bold predictions? Let me know what you think on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
