Fantasy Football WRs Being Drafted Too High
It’s drafting season, and everyone aims to assemble the core of a team that will take them to the promised land come late December. While some names in the fantasy landscape have more flash than others, it’s important to ensure that their play, environment, and overall fantasy value truly back up the high draft selections. Here are four receivers being drafted way too soon in 2024.
DJ Moore
ADP: WR21
DJ Moore is coming off a phenomenal season, but few teams have undergone a more major construction than the Chicago Bears. Last year, Moore set career highs in receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364), and receiving touchdowns (8) in a Chicago passing attack that heavily relied on him.
Moore’s sky-high 27.9% target share was a byproduct of earning Justin Fields’ trust and a lackluster depth situation at the position. Both of those factors have changed. Ryan Poles opted for a new option under center when he spent the no. 1 overall pick on Caleb Williams, and Williams has plenty of options compared to last year’s squad.
The Windy City welcomes six-time pro bowler Keenan Allen and the 2024 no. 9 overall pick in Rome Odunze to their weaponry. Moore is still an exceptional talent, but it’s tough to project a repeat year with so many conflicting variables.
Jameson Williams
ADP: WR48
Jameson Williams has been one of the flashier names in the fantasy world, but his production hasn’t matched what many value him at. After failing to crack the top 80 in a standard PPR format last season, Williams has somehow jumped 30 spots despite having plenty of target competition.
Last year’s WR48 in a standard PPR format was Rashid Shaheed. The Saints’ swiss army knife tallied 46 receptions for 719 yards and five receiving touchdowns. That’s nearly double the amount of output (25 receptions, 395 yards, three touchdowns) that Williams has accumulated through his first two years of NFL action combined.
Then there’s the blaring issue of target competition. Following another 1,000 yard season from Amon-Ra St. Brown, a breakout rookie campaign from tight end Sam LaPorta and a rushing attack that was utilized to chew the clock for many of Detroit’s 12 wins in 2023, can we even make the claim that the former Alabama receiver is a top-5 weapon on his own team?
A lot could change, but there isn’t enough volume for a receiver whose injury issues aren’t far in the rearview mirror.
Brandon Aiyuk
ADP: WR15
While I expect this value to drop in response to recent events, Aiyuk is an immediate wild card since requesting a trade. This isn’t to say he can’t perform at a top-15 level for the second consecutive year, but his deviation of possible results grew significantly when he declared that he may not be suiting up for the 49ers this season.
While he is fresh off of a career year with San Francisco, he was sharing the ball with an aging George Kittle (30) and Deebo Samuel (28). The possibility of him joining a younger, less efficient offense lingers, and I’d rather not toss an early pick out on someone whose future is still unknown.
Garrett Wilson
ADP: WR8
While Garrett Wilson himself has done nothing but bolster the fantasy football world’s belief in him, his environment consistently caps his fantasy potential. Subpar quarterback play hindered Wilson’s success in his rookie year, yet the Ohio St. alum still managed to break the 1,000-yard barrier in 2022.
The acquisition of a future hall-of-famer in Aaron Rodgers was supposed to change everything for the Jets, and Wilson, in 2023. That dream lasted all of a handful of plays before New York’s signal caller left the home opener with a season-ending Achilles tear.
The plan is for Rodgers, who turned 40 back in December, to suit up for 2024. That would make it the third straight year where we’ve all expected more from Wilson. This optimism now relies on a couple of aspects: Rodgers to stay healthy, Wilson and Rodgers to establish a connection despite not having many in-game reps and the incoming target competition not being a hindrance.
Mike Williams, who racked in north of 1,100 yards back in 2021, joins a receiving room that also features Rodgers’ number one receiver from 2022 in Allen Lazard.
Wilson may be building off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, but almost everything needs to go right for him to break the top 10 receivers.
All four of these receivers have shown the ability to take over games, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to let them fall instead of snatching them at an overrated ADP.
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