5 Early Thoughts about DraftKings DFS Slate Week 1
It’s my favorite time of the year, week one of the NFL season, and the hopes of creating the million-dollar lineup. DraftKings has officially released its week one price, and all fantasy nerds like me are breaking it down and evaluating prices and value. Everyone who knows anything about DFS knows the key to winning big is finding the ONE player no one else thinks will do good and playing them. Let’s look at the week one slate and see who is priced too high, who is too chalky, and who some sleepers might be.
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Player Overpriced
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Bijan Robinson $8,000- Ok, so there is a lot of hype around Robinson coming into the new season, but as a realist, until I see him prove himself on the field in a regular season game, I am not paying that much for a rookie. Experts can say whatever they want, but that doesn’t mean he will live up to expectations. He is facing a Carolina defense that gave up 122.6 rushing yards per game last season and 4.3 yards per carry, but I stand by what I said: until he proves he is as good as what people say, I will not pay that much for speculation.
Player to Watch
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Deshaun Watson $6,000- Watson is primed to play his first full season since 2020. Kevin Stefanski has done a phenomenal job giving him weapons to throw and an O-Line to protect him. I know the offense runs through Chubb, but he can only do so much. They play their in-state rival Cincinnati, and I see Cleveland playing from behind, which will lead to Watson airing it out. I don’t think Cincy’s defense is all that good, and Watson should be able to put together a good fantasy day. I don’t think we will see much defense, and Watson has a decent price that allows you to pay up at another position.
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Jordan Love $5,000- Love is one of the most underrated QBs on the slate. His price alone makes him worth a start. If you have been following training camp, you would know how good this kid really is. He is facing a Bears secondary that is not that good, and I see Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs having breakout seasons this year. Wouldn’t it be sweet revenge if Green Bay did better than the Jets? Don’t count Love out as someone who could provide 15-20 fantasy points and give you the salary to pick up a few studs.
Player Underpriced
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Derek Carr $5,300- Carr has been a fantasy dud for several years, but he is in New Orleans now with a plethora of weapons, something he has never really had. He had Davante Adams last season in Las Vegas, but who else did he have? As a Saint, he has Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara(suspended first three games). I see Carr having the best of his career and New Orleans being serious contenders in the NFC. Facing a porous Titans secondary, I would take Carr and either Thomas or Olave.
Other underpriced I will be looking at in week one are Sam Howell ($4,900), Russell Wilson ($5,900), Jamaal Williams ($5,100), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,100), Zay Flowers ($4,000), and Michael Thomas ($5,100). These players are reasonably priced, have favorable matchups, and won’t have high ownership. There are other players you could include, but these are the ones I like heading into week one.
Player Too Chalky
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Jalen Hurts $7,800- Hurts will be one the most rostered players of week one. Everyone knows he will have a good game against a Patriots defense that isn’t as good this year as in years past. But if 65-70% of the people have him, are you really winning? Sometimes fading the chalk is the key to winning big. What if the Eagles build a big lead and decide to chew the clock by pounding the rock? Hurts won’t score well in that scenario. I will play Hurts, but he won’t be the key player I focus on.
Several players will be chalky entering week one, and a few others I will be looking to fade include Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Justin Fields ($7,700), Christian McCaffery ($8,700), Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Justin Jefferson ($8,800) and Tyreek Hill ($8,200). Fading these guys seems crazy, but again, playing who everyone else is won’t win big.
Sleeper Player
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Elijah Moore $3,800- He had a disappointing season last year with the Jets, where he got buried in the depth chart. He has a fresh start in Cleveland with a better QB than last year. His price alone makes him worth the risk, considering Amari Cooper will garner Cincy’s top DB. I think Stefanki will put Moore in the slot where he is more comfortable playing, and he will have a bounce-back season. Moore is out to prove a point, and I see him having a good debut performance in a game where his team will be forced to throw the ball.
