Ryan Pickard’s “Pick-Six” 2024 Breakout Candidates
Albert Einstein once described insanity as drafting Kyle Pitts over and over and expecting different results. Luckily for me, as a Canadian, the only state I live in is denial. Breaking down stats, metrics, and opportunities is what I have done to help you draft breakout players with the highest upside. Note that there are no rookies on this list. I wanted to unearth players that your league mates and best ball drafters may step over. Let’s get into my “Pick-Six” players.
1. Zamir White, LV
In the final stretch of the 2023 NFL season, White brute-forced his will onto opposing defenses. During his four-game start, he averaged 21 carries, 99.25 yards, and 4.7 yards per carry against the Chiefs, Colts, Chargers, and Broncos. This man is also a farmer in his free time, and I am projecting him to make some hay this season. The Raiders could have gone after a bigger-named RB than Alexander Mattison in the open market or drafted a replacement, but they didn’t, for a good reason. New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy came from the Bears, who were second in rushing play percentage at 48.68%. White also carried the ball 0.8 yards further per play than the league-leading rusher Josh Jacobs, who left the Raiders to chase the cheese in Green Bay. HC Antonio Pierce loves a bell cow back and has said White is built right and looks strong. Don’t forget that White is a winner as well. He helped the Georgia Bulldogs in their undefeated season, going 15-0 and winning a national championship while averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scoring 11 touchdowns. His teammates say he is a violent runner. Kyle Brandt better get a scepter ready for an angry run award.
2. Will Levis, TEN
The Titans were odd to watch last season, as nothing seemed to click for them. Hiring HC Brian Callahan should be an immediate remedy, along with adding their first-round pick, OL JC Latham. Last year, they also used a first-round pick on OL Peter Skoronski. Bill Callahan, the father of the HC, has 22 years of strictly offensive line coaching in his 46 years of coaching experience and was hired by the Titans this year. Levis looks like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Commando, with all these weapons at his disposal. WR trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd. These three experienced veterans still have the juice and can mentor Levis. The RB room is nothing to slouch at, with Tony Pollard coming off a back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing season and Tyjae Spears, who received a lot of praise after last year’s campaign behind Derrick Henry. TE Chigoziem Okonkwo is a name you can’t say three times fast. His stats have improved over the last two years, and he has breakout potential with the surrounding cast to benefit him. Levis must be considered a solid streamer or second QB on your roster. He may not win your league with the most fantasy points, but he can win you the weeks you need him.
3. Pat Freiermuth, PIT
This pick didn’t come lightly. Arthur Smith is the new OC, and there is one thing that gives me hope. Despite Russell Wilson targeting TEs 13.5% in his career, Smith is the counterweight. When he was the HC of the Falcons, he was consistent with being 7-10 all three seasons and targeting his tight ends 32.95% of passing attempts. It’s too bad that Kyle Pitts never saw any of those, am I right? If Wilson loses the starting role, Justin Fields nearly double Wilson’s targeted attempts to a TE with 24.5%. WR Diontae Johnson was traded to the Panthers, and the remaining receiving core is being juggled to see who’s who. Freiermuth averages 9.9 yards a catch and has also suffered from poor QB play. Given what we’ve seen and the opportunities to come, he will be a top-12 TE at the minimum this season.
4. Khalil Shakir, BUF
The Bills drafting WR Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round sets the tone for upgrading the position. Both QB Josh Allen and Shakir will benefit from this. Knowing that Diggs left the table-breaking city, so did all his targets, and they must go somewhere. When targeted at least 4 times a game, Shakir averaged 75 receiving yards. The coaching staff has already stated they are easing Coleman into the offense. This is more good news for Shakir since he has two years of chemistry with Allen. WR Curtis Samuel will help stretch the field, but he will be more of a WR2/3 role. When the playoffs came for the Bills last year, Shakir scored in both games. I don’t read too much into that, but it shows confidence from his QB. A stat you really need to see is his ability to catch. When targeted, he makes the grab 86% of the time. This is the best catch rate for a first or second-year wide receiver in the last 10 years.
5. Chase Brown, CIN
This is another player on the list where they are stepping into a vacated role. RB Zack Moss was brought in, which will scare some people away from Brown. Do not be afraid; follow my guiding torch as I tell you a story. Zaccheus Malik Moss has played in 53 games, and only in three games has he gone over 100 rushing yards. Brown was efficient on the ground with a 4.1 YPC and 11.1 YPR. He is also taking the majority of first-team reps in training camp. With a 4.3 40-yard dash time and a breakaway rate of 9.1%, he trailed only De’Von Achane. Joe Mixon was targeted the 13th most in the NFL last season for RBs. Putting these together for Brown is a dangerous concoction of speed and elusiveness.
6. Jameson Williams, DET
QB Jared Goff has averaged 4,506 passing yards in his last two seasons with the Dan Campbell-led Detroit Lions. WR Josh Reynolds was the #2, but he is gone now. Williams has had two rough years starting in the NFL and has missed a lot of time. Now, the deep-ball threat is ready to let loose. Averaging 15.8 AirYD/TGT, he led the Lions and has another major advantage this year. The Lions are playing 14 games in a dome. Free of weather concerns, every game can be a track meet for the speedster. St. Brown and LaPorta will still get theirs but do not be afraid when you have Goff throwing that much yardage around. This is a +1,000-yard season with a high chance of 10+ total touchdowns, as we have seen Williams involved in the run game.
