Advanced TE Metrics: 4 Breakout Tight Ends

Have you ever wondered which tight ends to target in fantasy football drafts if you miss out on Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or George Kittle? The landscape outside of the big three is as barren as a landscape in a science fiction dystopian film. In this article, I’ll use our Advanced Metrics to tell you about four tight ends who find themselves in a perfect offensive situation to breakout in 2019. 

Ricky Seals-Jones

Ricky Seals-Jones was touted as a breakout candidate last season. The second-year TE instead finished as the TE29 in PPR formats with 70 targets, 34 receptions, 343 receiving yards, and one touchdown. No one thrived in the Arizona Cardinals putrid offense in 2018. The offense finished last in yards per game (241.6), passing yards per game (158), rushing yards per game (84), and scoring offense (14.1). The Cardinals began the season with quarterback Sam Bradford who lasted into just his third game before his poor play opened the door for 10th overall draft pick, Josh Rosen. He played in 14 games finished with a true passer rating of 66.5. This advanced metric factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Rosen played so poorly that the Cardinals decided to trade him during the offseason. The team also fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy after seven games. This was not the ideal environment to foster a breakout fantasy season. Seals-Jones’ fantasy value can only go up in 2019. 

Arizona Cardinals Ricky Seals-Jones could be x-factor #BirdGang https://t.co/UhZ87mK1Ud

— Cardinals Talk (@Cardinals_TT) August 14, 2019

Seals-Jones (15%) finished 2018 tied for fifth with Kittle in Hog Rate while only playing 59 percent of the offensive snaps. This advanced metric captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. It’s useful to identify wide receivers and tight ends with limited route trees that may have a low snap count and target share, but when they are on the field, are a focal point of the passing offense. New Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is bringing his Air Raid offense to the desert. He is known for masterminding offenses that are pass-heavy and score a high number of points. The Cardinals drafted Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray to be the starting quarterback. The team did sign aging veteran Charles Clay, but Seals-Jones is still the top tight end on the depth chart. He could double his 2018 statistical production in 2019.

Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper‘s Hog Rate of 11.5 percent last season was impressive. He played 79 percent of the offensive snaps while averaging 5.5 targets per game. The Falcons offense consisted of notable skill players who averaged a high number of targets per game including Julio Jones (10.6), Calvin Ridley (5.8), Devonta Freeman (3.5), and Tevin Coleman (2.8). Hooper’s finished 2018 as the TE8 in PPR setting career highs with 71 receptions, 660 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. The only TEs with more receptions last season were Ertz (116), Kelce (103), and Kittle (88). Hooper finished with a higher target separation (1.91) than Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle. This advanced metric measures the average yards of separation distance from the closest defender back at the moment the pass target arrives. Hooper has a knack for getting open. 

The return of Dirk Koetter bodes well for Hooper. He was the Falcons offensive coordinator from 2012 to 2014 and held the same title with the Buccaneers in 2015 before becoming their head coach. 

Hooper is the clear cut starter for the Falcons that includes backups Luke Stocker, Jaeden Graham, and Logan Paulsen. He has little competition for targets and offensive snaps. Stocker is the best blocking tight end of the group. The Falcons have struggled offensively without a blocking TE and should fill that role nicely. Hooper has improved every season and has an opportunity to have a career season in 2019. 

Darren Waller

Darren Waller quietly won the offseason. The departure of free-agent tight end Jared Cook to the New Orleans Saints opened the door for him to become the Oakland Raiders starter in 2019. The converted wide receiver out of Georgia Tech has an impressive statistical body of work that resulted in a 91st percentile college dominator rating. This metric at Player Profiler boils down to a player’s percentage of their team’s offensive production. A 35 or higher percent dominator is someone with the potential to be a team’s starter. A player that falls between 20 to 35 percent provides you with situational upside. Waller entered the NFL at 32 percent. His career has not been as stellar over the last four seasons. Waller has been placed on IR twice and suspended for PEDs twice. Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has touted him all offseason as one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL. 

#HardKnocks standout Darren Waller displayed rare speed for a tight end in limited action last season, reaching 20+ MPH on 5% of offensive plays (2 of 41 plays).

George Kittle was the only other TE to reach 20+ MPH more than once (3).

Kittle played 839 more snaps than Waller. pic.twitter.com/LcbuTJdhk8

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) August 21, 2019

Waller is currently dealing with a sprained AC joint and is not yet fully cleared. He is expected to replace Cook who finished last season with 101 targets, 68 receptions, 896 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Everyone loves an underdog story and if you’ve watched Hard Knocks Waller has been very forthcoming regarding his substance abuse. He remains a strong sleeper at TE if you miss out on the big three. We have him projected to lead the Raiders TEs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2019. 

Chris Herndon

Chris Herndon had a productive rookie season with the New York Jets finishing with 39 receptions and 502 receiving yards on a 12.1 percent target share. He only played 62 percent of the offensive snaps, but his hog rate of 11.1 percent shows that the Jets looked to use him. Herndon also finished 2018 with the second-highest true catch rate (93%) at the TE position. There is a reason for optimism in 2019 with the arrival of new head coach Adam Gase. Before his arrival, the Jets had been one of the worst teams in utilizing the TE in the passing game. Herndon has a great opportunity to build upon the chemistry he developed with QB Sam Darnold.

Chris Herndon had 39 recs for 502 yds as Jets rookie in 2018. Last time HC Adam Gase coached a TE w/ 500+ rec yds was Julius Thomas @ DEN in ’13. Since ’10 he’s never coached a 13 yds/catch TE. Gase calls Herndon “a unicorn type of player”: https://t.co/vtDf8sCHpS pic.twitter.com/2bMl5vt6fz

— Randy Lange (@rlangejets) February 28, 2019

Herndon will face a four-game suspension from the NFL following his pleading guilty to DWI after an arrest last June. He’s had a solid preseason and is expected to be a big part of the Jets offense when he returns in October. Herndon is a complete TE who can help the Jets in every facet of the game. Gase will provide him the chance to do so in 2019. Herndon is someone to target as your TE2 in deeper formats or preemptively pickup up on the waiver wire before his return.  

Conclusion

The best approach to take regarding the TE position if you miss out on Kelce, Ertz, or Kittle is to take the committee approach. You can draft two in the later rounds and start one of them based on the matchups. It is one of the most unpredictable positions in fantasy football. Use this knowledge to your advantage. Here is an example of what that would look like in a 12-team PPR fantasy draft:

• QB: Aaron Rodgers
• RB: Aaron Jones
• RB: Josh Jacobs
• WR: Julio Jones
• WR: Odell Beckham 
• TE: Austin Hooper
• Flex: Robby Anderson
• DST: New Orleans Saints
• K: Harrison Butker
• Bench: Duke Johnson
• Bench: Curtis Samuel
• Bench: Latavius Murray
• Bench: Matt Breida
• Bench: Tre’Quan Smith
• Bench: Chris Herndon
• Bench: Justice Hill