Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Forecast 2020

Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy

With Derrius Guice released, Antonio Gibson’s stock rises. Gibson is an exciting rookie with several questions surrounding his fantasy forecast in 2020 redraft leagues. How will he be used in Washington? What about his college prospect profile? What about the new coaching staff and offensive coordinator? Gibson is an exciting and explosive player that will compete for touches with Adrian Peterson and a few other running backs. We’ll dive into all those questions and more as we consider Antonio Gibson’s fantasy forecast in 2020.

Gibson’s College to NFL Journey

First, let’s briefly discuss Antonio Gibson’s journey from a junior college to the University of Memphis to the Washington Football Team. Coming out of East Central Community College in Georgia, Gibson was a wide receiver prospect that eventually enrolled at Memphis. At East Central Community College, he totaled 43 rush attempts, 249 rushing yards, and three touchdowns. Gibson also added 50 receptions, 871 receiving yards, and 13 receiving touchdowns. 

In 2018 as a junior at Memphis, Gibson barely received any touches and logged six catches, 99 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. For context, it was a crowded running back room. The top three running backs at Memphis that season – Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor Jr., and Tony Pollard, all of which are on NFL rosters. At Memphis, those three running backs produced over 4,500 scrimmage yards in 2018. That is unreal. In 2019, Gibson finished second on the team in receiving yards and third in total scrimmage yards. 

As a senior, he recorded 38 receptions, 735 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns with 33 carries, 369 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. Gibson averaged 19.3 yards per reception and 15.5 yards per touch with 12 total touchdowns on 71 touches. The Washington Football team drafted him in the third round, and with Derrius Guice released, Gibson’s stock rises.

College Prospect Profile

Gibson is listed at 6-foot and 228 pounds with a 30.9 BMI (68th percentile), meaning he projects to be productive and durable. When looking at his college prospect profile, his 11.2 yards per carry (99th percentile) and 12.7% target share (88th percentile) jump off the page. Gibson showed breakaway speed with a 4.39 40-yard dash (98th percentile) and a 122.8-speed score (99th percentile). Speed Score is a metric on Player Profiler that takes into account their weight and 40-yard dash time. The speed score metric comes from Bill Barnwell and it is one of the better predictors of running back success when taking into account their size and speed.

On the flip side, the concerns include a low 17.4% college dominator rating (24th percentile) and a 118.5 burst score (48th percentile). Given the touches and overall production relative to the total team yards and touchdowns he accounted for at Memphis, it’s not surprising to see the low college dominator rating. However, Gibson demonstrated efficiency and explosiveness with limited touches. In college, Gibson displayed jaw-dropping highlights for an RB/WR. Now he’s battling for running back touches on the Washington Football Team, but Gibson is arguably the most exciting player in this backfield. We expect there will be bumps along the way as he will need to learn pass protection and all the roles of an NFL running back.

With Guice Released, Now What?

With Derrius Guice released, Gibson moved up the depth chart behind Adrian Peterson. However, Gibson expects to compete with Bryce Love and Peyton Barber. JP Finlay of NBC Sports believes Love will be the number two running back in Washington since he received the first-team snaps during practice on Wednesday. Gibson demonstrated explosiveness in college and thankfully offensive coordinator Scott Turner adjusts his game plan to fit his players’ strengths. Even though Gibson may not have a clearly defined role, there are reasons to be excited about his potential.

With Peterson out Bryce Love gets first work with 1st team offense. His role as second back seems quite real

— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) August 19, 2020

Offensive Coordinator – Scott Turner

Last season with Jay Gruden as head coach and Bill Callahan as offensive coordinator, the offense was brutal. There was little creativity, and they often went run, run, pass. Last season, the team ranked 30th with an average point differential of over seven points or a -7.07 game script. Typically when teams play from behind, the team chucks the ball around. However, last season they finished 28th in pass attempts per game and 31st in rush attempts per game. With Ron Rivera as head coach and Scott Turner as offensive coordinator, there’s room for hope for the entire offense. Last season, Rivera and Turner coached together with Turner as the quarterback’s coach and interim offensive coordinator. Let’s look at why we should be excited about Turner as their offensive coordinator.

A Bleacher Report article discussed what to expect from Scott Turner’s offense. It looked at his coaching history while noting the main theme – he designs his offense around his personnel. A reminder that Scott’s dad, Norv Turner, held the Panthers offensive coordinator job until December 2019. With the Panthers, Turner often developed game plans to fit his player’s strengths. Take last season as an example where he drew up plays for D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. Turner adjusted game plans for his struggling quarterbacks in Will Grier and Kyle Allen with intermediate passes for Moore and touches out of the backfield for Samuel. 

Curtis Samuel Type Role?

Although it’s a small sample, Samuel received nine out of his 19 carries with Turner as offensive coordinator from weeks 14-17. Last year, Samuel also ranked 9th in air yards but struggled with efficiency due to awful quarterback play. Although they’re different players, remember that Samuel played running back at Ohio State. They used Samuel in a dual-threat role in the rushing and receiving game with over 2,500 total yards split evenly in his college career. Furthermore, there are similarities in Samuel and Gibson’s prospect profile in terms of the 40-yard dash and speed scores. After the Senior Bowl, Turner raved about Gibson and looked forward to developing plays for Gibson. This further cements the narrative that Turner designs the game plan around his player’s strengths, and understands that Gibson’s an exciting weapon. 

Player Comparisons 

Let’s look at player comparisons based on similar prospect profiles in the areas of speed scores, 40-yard dash, and college target share. For the college target share metric, we focused on players with a double-digit target share. A reminder that speed score is one of the better predictors of running back success, so we’re sorting this table by speed score. 

The closest comparisons in terms of all three categories – Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. The college rushing production is the main difference between Gibson and those two running backs. However, those player comparisons are fascinating. The other players on this list fit the three parameters, and most are exciting playmakers outside of Ballage and Prosise to a degree. At Notre Dame, Prosise transitioned from wide receiver to running back and then played running back in the NFL. However, Prosise has often been injured although similar in size to Gibson. Since we’re talking about speed scores and prospect profiles – check out Gibson’s playmaking ability.

Memphis WR/RB Antonio Gibson (@AntonioGibson14) Highlights

Gibson is an elite playmaker. He can add immediate help in the pass, run & return game. He truly is a special player #GoTigersGo

Full Video 🎥: https://t.co/TwBQSrFvpf pic.twitter.com/1ydOmYMsWf

— JustBombsProductions (@JBP_Official) January 24, 2020

Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Forecast

For 2020 redraft leagues, Gibson’s an exciting player with his prospect profile and explosiveness. Add in the fact that their offensive coordinator plans to scheme game plans around the strengths of his players, meaning stock up for all offensive weapons especially Gibson. However, the concerns surrounding Gibson include limited college production and potential growing pains in learning other responsibilities of an NFL running back.

On Fantasy Football Calculator, Gibson’s 83.1 ADP makes him the 36th running back drafted. Obviously with Guice released, his ADP continues to rise. Overall, I’m buying into the narrative that Turner will design plays for Gibson and he will have a unique role in this offense. I’d expect Gibson to be used in creative ways and potentially used in a Curtis Samuel role with the game-breaking speed. A creative offensive mind paired with an explosive playmaker leads to potential fantasy goodness.