2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational – DFS Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: This event has been around since 1966 when it was originally known as the Florida Citrus Invitational Open, but since 2007, it has been the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API). The record at this tournament is by Buddy Allin who shot a remarkable -23 in 1973 and won in style by 8 strokes. Winners of the API over the last five years include Bryson DeChambeau in 2021, Tyrrell Hatton in 2020, Francesco Molinari in 2019, Rory McIlroy in 2018, and Marc Leishman in 2017.
Get in the money with more consistency in your PGA DFS contests and other sports leagues too including the NBA, by utilizing insightful player projections.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $12M, the winner collects $2.16M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a lengthy 7,454 yards, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass and average a large 7,500 square feet. The winning score here over the last decade ranges from -4 to -19, so the weather and course setup really factor into the scores here. Some core key stats to pay attention to this week are, in order, strokes gained: approach, driving distance, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: putting.
The field: It’s an invitational this week, so we don’t have a full field but do have 120 players in action, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 on Friday will play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. We have a very strong field in place including Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and lots of other big names. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A.
Three questions I have about the Arnold Palmer Invitational:
1. Will distance prevail again? Last year’s winner is the longest hitter on the PGA Tour in Bryson DeChambeau, and distance is the second most important key stat to succeed on this course, so you can likely expect that a bomber will take the cake this week.
2. Which five players gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? The best stroke gainers over the last 24 rounds include Hideki Matsuyama – 2.07, Viktor Hovland – 1.89, Russell Henley – 1.74, Rory McIlroy – 1.69, and Tom Hoge – 1.66.
3. Does history matter here? Looking at player results from past years, it looks as though players tend to consistently finish well or not so much, so I would say to pay attention to course history more than the average week.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: With a less than full field this week and a higher percentage of players making the cut versus a 144 or 156 player field, you can get a bit more aggressive with your picks this week, so I do endorse stars and scrub configurations. As always, keep an eye on projected ownership on Wednesday, pivot to golfers who are projected to be lower owned, and leave a few hundred bucks on the table for each lineup, especially for the large GPPs!
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.4K) – He keeps putting up good finishes but hasn’t won since last June at the U.S. Open, so I would say Rahm’s due. He has five straight top 21’s thanks to outstanding ball-striking numbers, but it’s his short game that’s holding him back as he has lost strokes around the green in four straight and has lost almost 5 strokes combined over his last two starts with the flat stick. He surprisingly doesn’t have history at the API, but that doesn’t really matter too much to me as his off the tee and approach game are so very strong. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: None.
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – My favorite player this week is McIlroy as he has been unreal here with five straight top 10’s including winning four years ago in 2018, and he has finished no lower than T18 over his last eight starts including winning THE CJ CUP last October. I expect him to be highly owned this week, but it’s warranted – find pivot plays elsewhere! Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T10, 2020 – T5, 2019 – T6, 2018 – Won, and 2017 – T4.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – The kid is remarkable as has three wins in his last seven starts and he has another two more T4’s during that stretch including a T4 in Hovland’s most recent start two weeks ago at The Genesis Invitational where his putter was surprisingly very strong gaining 5.09 strokes. He has so-so finishes here over the last three years, but he’s at a whole new level now and will certainly top his best finish of T40 which came three years ago. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T49, 2020 – T42, and 2019 – T40.
The $9K Range
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – The 2020 champ is playing some excellent golf right now with three top 9’s in his last four starts on the PGA Tour, European Tour, and Asian Tour. Hatton has done very well on this track win the win, a T4 five years ago and two other top 29’s since 2017 thanks to incredible approach and short game play. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T21, 2020 – Won, 2019 – 29, 2018 – T69, and 2017 – T4.
Marc Leishman (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Leishman has three top 7’s here over the past five years including winning in 2017, and he has totally figured out the greens and his approach play is quite strong. He missed the cut here last year, but I’ll forgive him and expect much better this year. He has four top 19’s over his last six starts and is getting it down with a complete game, so that tells me his finishes are sustainable, and the Aussie should put on another good show this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T23, 2018 – T7, and 2017 – Won.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – I hope he gets his first PGA Tour win at some point as he has a ton of top 5 and top 10 finishes in his career, but just can’t get over that hump yet. He won seven starts ago on the European Tour and has four straight top 12’s including a T10 in his most recent start at the Phoenix Open where he gained 6.89 strokes ball-striking. If that isn’t enough, he has three straight top 10’s at this venue and seems like a great DFS investment this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T10, 2020 – T9, 2019 – 2nd, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T13.
The $8K Range
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – He just keeps playing superb golf and now has five top 12’s over his last six starts thanks to sound ball-striking and good short game play. With two top 6’s here over the last three years and lots of momentum coming in this week, I really like Mitchell as a mid-tier value play. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T43, 2020 – T5, and 2019 – T6.
Jason Kokrak (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Kokrak won five starts ago at the Houston Open with an outstanding ball-striking performance and putting – gaining over 8 strokes in each stat category. He has finished no lower than T45 over his last five starts and should have a good showing this week as he has finished T8 to T18 here over the last three years, and has gained strokes in both off the tee and on approach in seven straight years at the API which is just incredible. If he figures out his mediocre short game here, watch out! Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T8, 2020 – T18, 2019 – T10, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T56.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – He doesn’t play as much golf as I’d like on the PGA Tour, but when he does he’s reliable and often collects top 10’s, top 20’s, and top 30’s. Casey has six straight top 31’s including a T15 in his most recent start at The Genesis Invitational in a stacked field. He had a T10 here a year ago and a T9 six years ago thanks to great approach and around the green play. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T10 and 2017 – T41.
The $7K Range
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Bezuidenhout has two top 25’s in his last three starts, regularly makes the cut, and often has good finishes, as well. I particularly like the work he has put in at the API, especially his T7 last year – it’s because of all-world short game play. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7 and 2020 – T18.
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – He made some noise last week to finish T7 at The Honda Classic and he had a T14 two starts ago at the Phoenix Open – he gained strokes across the board in both events. With three top 15’s here in his last three appearances, he should be feeling confident to put up a fourth straight this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T8, 2019 – T15, 2018 – T13, and 2017 – Cut.
Cameron Young (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – I really enjoy seeing young talent play well, and Young is one of those players right now with two T2’s in his last nine starts and he has four straight top 26’s on the back of impressive ball-striking as he has gained at least 3.63 strokes over each of those tournaments. We have a strong field on tap this week and normally that would scare me away from the youth, but he just put up a T2 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, so I have no hesitations about him this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: None.
The $6K Range
Rickie Fowler (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – The $6K range isn’t as strong as I thought it would be, but there are some decent finds including Fowler. He hasn’t been great since his T3 at THE CJ CUP last Fall, but has made two cuts in a row and has a good record at the API with six straight cut lines made and three top 18’s in his last five showings. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T72, 2020 – T18, 2019 – T40, 2018 – T14, and 2017 – T12.
Adam Svensson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – Once he figures out his putting, he will do well as he’s a strong approach player, has played weekend rounds in five straight events and two of them were top 9’s including last week’s T9 where he was splendid off the tee, on approach, and with his short game. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: None.
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Perez has two top 9’s in his last four starts and has a half-decent record at the API with three cuts made over his last four starts here including a T17 five years ago. If you’re going top-heavy for your core lineups this week, then Perez might be a good player to use in one or more of them as the last man in. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T36, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T50, and 2017 – T17.
