Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour remains in Florida for this week and two more weeks after as well before the Winter Florida swing concludes with the Valspar Championship. This tournament has been on the PGA Tour since 1966 when it was known as the Florida Citrus Invitational Open, but it has been the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2007. We have 120 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after Friday’s round 2 will advance to the weekend rounds.
There’s a huge $12M available to be won this week, the winner banks $2.16M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. Bay Hill Club and Lodge is 7,454 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass and average a big 7,500 square feet. The average winning score at this event over the last decade is just -13.1, so this track is challenging on an annual basis, especially two years ago when the weather was terrible and the winning score was just -4. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid on approach, hit a long ball off the tee blocks, solid from tee to green, strong off the tee, and can putt well on Bermudagrass.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week:
1. Treat this week like a major? We pretty much have a major caliber field on tap this week, so you should deploy your major betting philosophy, but also keep in mind that next week is THE PLAYERS and the actual majors start next month, so don’t blow your load too early into the 2022 season.
2. Who’s most likely to become a two-time champ here? We have seen some talented players win here in recent years including Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, but nobody in the field has won here more than once. Too bad Tiger Woods can’t play this year as he has won here an incredible 8 times! I believe that Rory has the best chance of becoming a two-champ, and should be looked at closely this week as a bet, for sure.
3. Which five players have been the longest hitters off the tee over the last 24 rounds? Driving distance is a big factor this week, and the top five bombers over the last 24 rounds include Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Matthew Wolff, Min Woo Lee, and Cameron Young. The rough is also a bit gnarly and fairways are hard to hit, so powerful swingers have my full attention this week.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Rory McIlroy (+1000) – Rory has dominated at this event with five straight years of putting up top 10’s including winning in 2018. He pretty much gains strokes in every stat category at this course, and I see no reason why that won’t continue again this year with another top 10 in the cards. He has eight consecutive top 18’s between the PGA Tour and the European Tour including a win, 3rd, 4th, and a 10th – he’s money this week, bet him any which way you see fit.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000) – Fitzpatrick has four straight top 12’s including a T10 in his most recent start at the Phoenix Open where he gained strokes across the board including a 6.89 gain with his ball-striking. He also has three consecutive top 10’s at Arnie’s Place including a runner-up three years ago when he was absolutely dominant in every facet of the game. He hasn’t won yet on the PGA Tour, so I would be reluctant to bet him outright, but I believe a top 10 is a fairly calculated risk.
Avoid: Jon Rahm (+750) – I don’t mind him as a DFS play this week, but his betting odds are too short for my liking given he hasn’t competed on this course before, and he has lost at least 3.04 strokes with his short game over his last two tournaments played. There will be many excellent spots to bet Rahm in the weeks and months ahead, don’t force it this week.
+2600 to +5000
Max Homa (+4500) – He has been heating up lately with three top 15’s in his last four starts including a T10 at The Genesis Invitational where he gained strokes across the board against an elite field. He had a T24 two years ago and a T10 last year, so he knows how to navigate this tricky course, and sets up as an intriguing bet this week. I think the play with Homa this week is either a top 10 or a top 20 wager depending on how aggressive you want to get with him.
Jason Kokrak (+5000) – Kokrak won just five starts ago at the Houston Open last November, and while he has only been good lately, I can smell a great finish coming this week as he has really performed well at Bay Hill. He has three top 18’s over the last three years and has really been outstanding with his ball-striking at this venue gaining at least 3.51 strokes in seven of eight appearances, and he had two top 6’s in 2014 and 2015. I like him as a top 10 and/or a top 20 bet this week, and you should too.
Avoid: Sam Burns (+5000) – I was hot on the case of Burns late last season, but he hasn’t been nearly as good so far in 2022 with three straight missed cuts and he’s bleeding strokes ball-striking and on putting, as well. He missed the cut here last year and has finished no higher than T36 in four starts at the API, wait him out until he finds his rhythm again.
+5100 to +10000
Chris Kirk (+7000) – He has gained strokes across the board in two straight events and it has led to a T14 at the Phoenix Open and a T7 last week at The Honda Classic. Kirk has four top 15’s here over his last five looks at the API and gains strokes in almost every stat category, so his results are legit and sustainable. I love him as a top 20 wager this week, and like him as a top 10 bet, but would go with the former rather than the latter.
Tom Hoge (+10000) – Hoge has played extremely well since late last year with a win coming at Pebble Beach, a 2nd at The American Express, and a T4 at The RSM Classic. His ball-striking has been solid since last September and his short game has been a gainer for him in six out of his last ten starts that had shot tracker in place. He has two top 26’s here in three starts, and I like him as a top 20 or a top 30 bet this week.
Avoid: Seamus Power (+6000) – He had the power for a big portion of last season and this season, but the wheels have fallen off over his last two starts as he missed the cut in both and his short game is to blame. He also hasn’t competed here before either, so there are some red flags that I would avoid, and wouldn’t recommend betting the talented Irishman this week.
+11000 and higher
Nick Taylor (+18000) – Taylor just keeps gaining strokes on approach and has been average to above average in all of the other major stat categories helping him to earn five top 33’s in his last seven starts including a T16 last week at The Honda Classic where he gained 5.73 on approach. He has a spotty record at the API, but I’m leaning more on recent play versus past results this week when it comes to betting. I believe you can bet Taylor to finish top 20, top 30, or top 40 depending on what level of risk you’re willing to take on.
K.H.Lee (+15000) – He has now made eight straight cut lines and has only missed one in his last fifteen events played which is quite impressive! I like him as a top 30 or top 40 bet this week, but he comes with risk as he has lost strokes on approach in three straight starts.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+15000) – Reed has lost strokes ball-striking in his last eleven starts that featured shot tracking technology, and it has led him down a dark road which includes back-to-back missed cuts and finishing no higher than T38 over his last five starts. He has a decent track record at the API, but did miss the cut here last year and I suspect he will be packing up his golf clubs on Friday evening after missing the cut again.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
