The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
DFS PGA Tour Golf Picks
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: This event dates back to 1937 when Sam Snead won both the first edition and the second one as well when it was named the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am. This event features a three-course setup – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and the Monterey Peninsula Country Club. There will be a cut line to dodge after the conclusion of round 3 on Saturday where the top 60 players plus ties move on to play round 4 on Sunday. Players navigate each of the courses from Thursday to Saturday, and Pebble Beach is used for the final round to declare the final positions. The record at this tournament came in 2015 when Brandt Snedeker fired a -22 to top Nick Watney by three strokes. Winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am over the last five years include Tom Hoge in 2022, Daniel Berger in 2021, Nick Taylor in 2020, Phil Mickelson in 2019, and Ted Potter Jr. in 2018.
By utilizing insightful player analytics and projections, you can get in the money more consistently in your PGA DFS contests and other sports leagues, including the NFL.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $9M, the winner collects $1.62M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Pebble Beach is 6,972 yards in length and is a par 72, Spyglass Hill is 7,041 yards in length and is also a par 72, and Monterey Peninsula is 6,957 yards and is a par 71, and all three courses feature poa annua greens. The winning score here over the past decade is -11 to -22 – wind is often a factor at this event, and it usually impacts the winning score one way or another. Some core key stats to put into your custom models this week, in order, include driving distance, strokes gained: putting, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: approach, and strokes gained: off the tee.
The field: We again have a full field of 156 players in action this week, and there are also 156 amateurs that will play alongside the pros. The top 60 pro players plus ties after round 3 will move on to play round 4 on Sunday. We will see a decent amount of talent including Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, defending champ, Tom Hoge, and other talented golfers also. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C.
Three questions that are relevant to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week:
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Joel Dahmen, Maverick McNealy, Alex Smalley, Ben Griffin, Viktor Hovland, Andrew Putnam, Aaron Baddeley, Seamus Power, Greyson Sigg, and Matthew NeSmith.
- Which 10 players does my custom model like the most? Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Hoge, Matthew NeSmith, Greyson Sigg, Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, Joel Dahmen, Ben Taylor, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Rose.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at this event since 2018? Kevin Streelman (19 rounds), Jordan Spieth (20 rounds), Troy Merritt (16 rounds), Taylor Moore (4 rounds), Maverick McNealy (15 rounds), Nick Taylor (19 rounds), Scott Stallings (18 rounds), Matthew NeSmith (11 rounds), David Lipsky (4 rounds), and Russell Knox (19 rounds).
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are (in no particular order) 15 DFS golf picks on DraftKings (DK), plus I also include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last five years, and add in some tasty data.
15 Players Who Are High-Value Plays This Week – Get Them Into Your DFS Lineups
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – Spieth won here in 2017 and finished two strokes behind Hoge last year to claim the runner-up position. He has three straight top 9’s since 2020 which is also a big positive. His recent form hasn’t been very good at all lately, but he came into this venue last year in bad shape and pulled off a great result, so there’s something about Pebble Beach that fits his eye and he sure takes advantage. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – 2nd, 2021 – T3, 2020 – T9, 2019 – T45, and 2018 – T20.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – He’s a consistent performer with top 10’s and top 20’s commonplace for him, plus he notched a T6 here a year ago thanks to gaining strokes across the board except off the tee he lost a modest 0.34. He’s got a very strong off the tee game traditionally, and his short game is where he really earns his keep. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T6, 2020 – T60, and 2019 – Cut.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – The early part of the seasons is when Power comes to play and this season has been no different as he won four starts ago in Bermuda, has three top 5’s in his last four starts and nothing outside of the top 25 during that stretch. He locked down a T9 here last year thanks to solid approach play and putting, and I expect more of the same again this week. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T9, 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T38, and 2018 – Cut.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – The Cali kid tends to play well in his home state and has done well here since 2020, especially given his runner-up finish two years ago finishing two strokes behind Daniel Berger. He has only finished worse than T32 once over his last ten starts and has three top 10’s over his last seven starts along with two other top 18’s. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T33, 2021 – 2nd, 2020 – T5, and 2018 – Cut.
Joel Dahmen (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Dahmen recently became a father and we haven’t seen him play since late November, but he was outstanding last Fall with three straight top 9’s including a T3 before going into hiding, and five top 16’s in his last six starts. He could be rusty this week or he might have crazy baby swagger, time will tell but I’m banking on the latter. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T6, 2021 – T60, 2020 – T14, and 2018 – T55.
Nick Taylor (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – He’s usually hit or miss and recently is no different with a T7 two starts ago, four top 23’s over his last eight starts, and three missed cuts during that same span. He has been excellent here – winning in 2020, two top 10’s since 2017, and six top 39’s over the last seven years. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T14, 2021 – T39, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T28, and 2018 – Cut.
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Griffin was better than I expected last week finishing T37 after a long layoff that lasted six months due to back surgery. He has been sound at this event – his last two results going for top 16’s including his T9 in 2020. I’m not banking on a top 20 for him this week but I think there’s a decent chance it happens and given his salary number, he will be well worth his price tag. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T16, 2020 – T9, and 2018 – Cut.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – We saw Hovland win a couple of months ago at the Hero World Challenge to defend his title there, he has three top 10’s over his last five starts and has been inside the top 21 during that stretch. There’s no doubt that he will top his T38 from three years ago, but by how much has yet to be determined. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T38.
Tom Hoge (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – We aren’t used to seeing Hoge be a $10K golfer but he won here last year, was a stroke outside the top 10 two years ago, and has had a strong season so far with five top 13’s including a T3 three starts ago at the Tournament of Champions. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Won, 2021 – T12, 2020 – T60, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – Cut.
Andrew Putnam (Salary: DraftKings – 9.7K) – He just keeps putting along having not missed a cut since last July, he has a few top 10’s, top 20’s, and top 30’s, and his outstanding short game is hard to beat no matter who you are on the PGA Tour. Expect more of the same this week, but understand that his upside is limited given his weak off the tee game. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T6, 2021 – T55, 2019 – T38, and 2018 – Cut.
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – He swings a bit stick and it sure paid off last year here with a T12 finish while gaining 4.69 strokes ball striking. He’s fairly consistent and pops every now and again – recently it was a T9 four starts ago at the Houston Open. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T12, 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T32, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – T47.
Ben Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Ben is a player to keep an eye on as his ball striking is consistently strong along with his short game, although, he can’t seem to have strong putting and an around the green game in the same week. He regularly finishes top 20 and top 30, and had a T3 seven starts ago at the Bermuda Championship. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: None.
Troy Merritt (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – He has been bad since late last Summer but did have a T3 four starts ago, and has been impressive here with four straight top 25’s and took home T4 honors last year. It’s hard to say whether that top 25 streak will continue this week or not, but he might be worth taking a chance on given his low price point and the lack of depth in the $7K and $6K ranges. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T4, 2021 – T16, 2020 – T25, and 2018 – T8.
Kevin Streelman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – Much like Troy above, Streelman hasn’t been playing very well since last October, but I put him on this list since he has a strong track record at this event with three top 7’s here since 2018, and six top 17’s since 2016. He should at least make the cut for you this week and offers plenty of upside given previous years of success. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Cut, 2021 – T13, 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T7, and 2018 – T6.
Henrik Norlander (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – I absolutely hate the $6K range this week but wanted to include one player so I went with Norlander who has been good at this venue, and has two top 39 finishes over his last four starts including a T15. I think building hybrid lineups is the way to go this week given the weak scrubs, but Henrik might be worth a look in an aggressive stars and scrubs lineup. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T26 and 2020 – T25.
