7 Big-Play Threats Better Suited For Bestball Than Re-Draft

BestBall Targets 2020

Over the past few years, Bestball has (in a way) become my favorite format of fantasy football. The reason being, what else are we going to throw money at all summer to sharpen our draft strategy and get an idea of ADP for our re-draft leagues? Bestball gives us a “skin in the game” way to do mock drafts with the opportunity to cash in on the good ones without having to manage the roster all season long. There is one major difference between Bestball and re-draft which is another reason I prefer it a bit more. In Bestball we can take gambles on players that would be a nightmare to carry on a re-draft roster. Guys that you never know when to start but have tremendous upside for the weeks they actually hit, guys that are suspended, or free agents waiting to be signed all fall into this class as we work through Bestball season. Let’s take a look at 7 players with big-play ability that we can feel more comfortable with on Bestball rosters than re-draft. Each player listed has their current ADP (using Fantasy Football Calculator for reference) and notable stats from the 2019 season highlighted just below their name to help illustrate their potential for big-plays.

***The stats used for this article were found thanks to  FantasyData’s Advanced Metrics pages

WR Tyler Lockett – ADP: Round 5

• 1.75 Deep Targets per game (11th), 33% Deep-Target Rate (14th), 4.7 Deep Points per Game (13th)

Tyler Lockett averaged 14.7 PPR points per game last year and had a couple of monster games, posting a 32 and 40 point game. Tricky thing with Lockett is guessing which weeks he’ll do that. Last year against Minnesota, a team that turned over their CB position in the offseason because of poor play, held Lockett to 0 points on 3 targets. He totaled a whopping 11.3 points combined against division rival Arizona. Lockett is currently going in the early 5th round in re-draft format which is an early enough pick you’re going to feel you need to start him every week. Lockett may even be the first or second WR drafted by some re-draft owners who will quickly find out they may need to keep a bottle of Tylenol nearby to deal with the headaches they’ve set themselves up for.

RB Matt Breida – ADP: Round 7

• 5.1 Yards Per Carry (3rd), 6.5% Breakway Rate (6th)

Pull up the list of Fastest Ball Carriers over at Next Gen Stats and you’ll find Matt Breida at the top of that list. Check out Fantasy Data’s Advanced Efficiency Matrix and you’ll see Breida near the top in Breakaway Rate. Breida also has the same 5.0 yards per carry as the legendary Barry Sanders. When Breida is healthy and in the open field there’s a good chance that play ends in a TD. In Miami, he’ll be Partnered with Jordan Howard in a split backfield. Breida will see the majority of targets from the RB position and should see plenty of space if Gailey keeps running his spread offense. Breida is typically being drafted in the 8th round or later in Bestball drafts, around the same area where more speculative plays like Lat Murray and Alexander Mattison are going and those guys need an injury ahead of them to be relevant. For Bestball, it’s nice to have a guy who will see opportunities all year and capture those spike games when they occur. Breida fits that mold.

WR Will Fuller – ADP: Round 8

• 14.0 Average Targeted Air Yards (12th), 2.09 Deep Targets per game (2nd), 33% Deep-Target Rate (5th), 5.1 Deep Points per Game (10th)

Much like Lockett, Fuller is going to cost an early to mid-round pick and owners will feel like he needs to be in their starting line-ups every week. If history repeats itself with Fuller, then we’re going to get a few monster games, a handful of duds, and a few games where he’s inactive due to injury. Fuller was, more or less, a one-hit-wonder in 2019 with that 53 point game, but was useless in just about every other game, except for one other game above 20 points. Fuller posted three 20+ games in both 2018 and 2017 (rounding 19.9 one game up to 20 here). Getting 3 games above 20 points is fairly good for an 8th round pick but the lack of consistency, the loss of Nuk to draw coverage, and the injuries are going to be a problem for re-draft owners drafting Fuller.

WR DeSean Jackson – ADP: Round 11

• 14.7 aDOT (9th), 4.18 Yards Per Route Run (1st), 8.2 Deep Points per Game (2nd)

Jackson hasn’t played all 16 games since 2013 and only appeared in 3 games last year. When he is on the field he is a speedy, big-play waiting to happen. The Eagles could really use the outside presence he brings to help free up the rest of the weapons, most of whom are better options in the passing game than Jackson is at this point in his career. But, as we have seen with D-Jax, it only takes one play for him to put up a dozen or so points. Whatever he does for the rest of that game will add to that. His on-field reliability and never knowing which games he’ll catch that deep-strike keep him in my Bestball pool, but not on my Re-draft radar.

WR Mike Williams – ADP: Round 14

• 17.4 Average Targeted Air Yards (1st), 18.1 aDOT (1st), 1.87 Deep Targets per game (7th), 33% Deep-Target Rate (5th), 4.4 Deep Points per Game (14th)

The Chargers will have a new starting QB this year but maintain the same overall offensive system. Williams was seeing some games last year with usable target counts but never really had an explosive game. However, when we look at his deep target data (noted above) there is potential for him to get there. Tyrod has been above average with his deep passing data throughout his career into Cleveland but didn’t do much with limited reps last year in LA. If he can put up numbers similar to what he has, Williams will get those opportunities to explode. It’s a concentrated offense in LA with Allen, Henry, and Ekeler the only other reliable targets. If any of them miss time, Williams should see extra opportunity.

WR Antonio Brown – ADP: Round 15+

• 2.0 Deep Targets per game (2nd), 25% Deep-Target Rate (18th), 9.0 Deep Points per Game (1st)

An 8 game suspension looms for Brown if he even ends up signing with a team. This makes him a hard to carry re-draft player if you don’t have a roster spot to stash suspended players. For Bestball, he’s typically going around the 14th to 15th round, which makes him a screaming value, whether or not he signs with a team. That is a risk I’m willing to take. A few teams and QBs have been linked to Brown keeping the possibility alive he’ll land somewhere this year. When on the field, Brown is an elite talent that would be drafted within the first three rounds, were it not for the suspension. Stash him on Bestball rosters and hope he gets signed. He’ll smash that 15th round ADP if he does.

TE Dawson Knox – ADP: Round 15+

• 9.5 Average Targeted Air Yards (5th TE), 0.67 Deep Targets per game (7th TE), 33% Deep-Target Rate (2nd TE), 9.1 aDOT (8th TE), 1.4 Deep Points per Game (10th TE)

Let’s look at some non-WRs in this space as well. Knox is one of my favorite sleepers this year at the TE position, but I don’t know that I’d be willing to have him as my only TE on a re-draft roster, nor do I want to draft more than 1 TE if I don’t have to. Bestball is the perfect opportunity to snag Knox late in drafts and discover if those deep passing numbers lead to anything good. With all the weapons Buffalo has amassed on the offense side of the ball, it’s going to be hard to predict his big weeks if he has them, but I do want exposure to them if they happen. Knox is better paired with a higher-end TE or in a platoon of 3 late rounders.