Bijan Robinson Fantasy Profile 2023
The term “generational talent” is sometimes applied too liberally when discussing football players, but labeling Bijan Robinson as such wouldn’t be even a little hyperbolic. If you have even dipped your toes into devy fantasy football leagues, you’ve likely known about Robinson since his senior season at Salpointe high school. Robinson was a five-star recruit and the consensus #1 running back recruit of the 2020 class, checking in at 6’0″ and 200 lbs he was already built like a man among boys and made an immediate impact on his limited touches as a freshman. Robinson dominated his final two seasons as a college player taking home the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s best running back in 2022 and finishing ninth in Heisman voting. Even though Robinson wasn’t able to match his 8.1 YPC of his freshman season he still maintained an excellent YPC the final two seasons of his career despite an increased workload and also displayed his strength as a receiver while averaging 16.5 yards per reception in his last season. Robinson is a size/speed back with legitimate three-down/bell-cow potential and was thought of as a no-doubt about it first-round NFL pick since his sophomore season of college, and ended up being just the sixth running back in the last decade to be drafted within the top 10 of the NFL Draft.
Skill Set
Despite losing an inch in height during his college career, Robinson tacked on 15 lbs. and measured in at 5’11” and 215 lbs. at the NFL Combine. His height and size are both slightly above average, as his arm length, while his hand size is near elite. Where Robinson shines is his speed and burst, where he ranks 80th percentile or better in all applicable measurements. His speed score, which accounts for a player’s size into their 40-time, checks in at 108.7 and ranks in the 89th percentile. As a runner Robinson checks all the physical boxes we want in a running back, good size, great speed, elusiveness, and elite burst.
It’s not just the physical profile that makes Robinson an elite prospect, it’s how those physical traits translated to production on the football field. Robinson’s 10.0% target share in college was near elite, and he was especially efficient as a receiver in his final college season. His 16.5 yards per reception ranked 2nd in CFB, and his 1.52 yards per route run ranked 7th, showing that Robinson is far more than a dump-off or screen option, he is a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield. That 16.5 YPR isn’t just elite for a running back either, it almost matched Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s best season and was better than Jordan Addison’s.
Best Season Yards Per Reception
Quentin Johnston (2020) – 22.1
Zay Flowers (2021) – 17.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2021) – 16.9
BIJAN ROBINSON (2022) – 16.5
Jordan Addison (2021) – 15.9In case you were concerned that Bijan Robinson was *only* catching screen passes…
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) April 3, 2023
During his time at Texas A&M Robinson was sometimes lined out of the slot and the Falcons have already talked about using him in that same role in the NFL, making him a true-down three-down threat. Considering he’s also an above-average pass blocker few circumstances would dictate Robinson to come off the field other than to get a rest.
Bijan Robinson running routes out of the slot is SCARY!! 😈
Another 28 yard reception here…
He really is THAT DUDE! 🚀#ELITEseekers @DestinationDevy #HookEm #Devy #C2C pic.twitter.com/4x5KMk3Kc8
— Ben Eby (@TheBenEby) September 4, 2021
Robinson’s pass-catching abilities are the cherry on top of his rushing ability. Robinson is as elite as a pure rusher. He’s able to cut on a dime, is hard to tackle, hits the hole quickly, falls forward, shows excellent vision, and has elite speed and burst. If you didn’t watch him during his college career you can get a primer by watching his highlights below. Between his skills, production profile, and draft pedigree As an overall running back prospect Robinson is one of the best to come out of college in a long time,
Landing Spot
The Falcons were the second run heaviest team in the NFL last year with 32.9 rushing attempts per game in 2022 finishing just behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Taking into account the rushing attempts siphoned off by their respective quarterbacks, the Falcons were a more run-heavy offense when just looking at running back usage with 454 running back attempts compared to the Eagles 368 running back attempts, despite the Eagles averaging more rushing attempts per game in total. Falcons running backs handled 81% of team rushing attempts compared to 68% of rushing attempts handled by Eagle running backs. There are limited vacated rushing attempts when you consider that 94.5% of the running back rushing attempts last year were handled by running backs that are still on the Falcons roster (Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley, and Avery Williams). Tyler Allgeier was the primary back last year handling 210 rushing attempts, though he only had 17 targets and 16 receptions on the season. Allgeier wasn’t anything special last year though, and his 4.9 YPC was right in line with what Patterson and Huntley averaged (4.8 YPC) last year, while his yards created per rushing attempt barely edged out Patterson. The receiving game is one area we should expect to regress in 2023, as the Falcons barely utilized running backs in the receiving game last year targeting the position at the fifth lowest rate in the league, but their 146 running back targets the year prior led the league. It’s not unreasonable to expect Robinson to eclipse the 210 rushing attempts Allgeier had last year and the 69 targets Patterson saw during the 2021 season. Based on the fact that Robinson was the eighth overall pick in the draft, I expect him to easily eclipse both totals.
Fantasy Impact
Our projections, which are a tad conservative, have Bijan Robinson on schedule to score 14.7 PPG and finish as the RB5 in PPG, but my expectations for Robinson would be no less than 15 PPG, which would have him inside the top 10 in points per game. My projections are likely conservative as well, but there have been rumblings out of Atlanta that Robinson may not be used as much as you might expect based on his draft capital, as Atlanta sees him as more than a player, as almost a brand ambassador for the organization. Would Atlanta use the eighth overall pick on a player and then not utilize him? That seems like a bad idea. Recent history shows that the running backs drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft usually get 275-300 opportunities in their rookie seasons. If Robinson were to see even just 250 opportunities in 2023, there’s no reason to think he can’t be as efficient as Toney Pollard was last year (1.0 FP Per opportunity) on his way to being the RB8 in PPG last year.
Dynasty Value
There is literally nowhere but down for Bijan Robinson’s dynasty value to go since he’s the RB1 in Dynasty ADP. If you landed Robinson through a rookie draft you are doing yourself a disservice if you don’t at least place him on the trade block. Robinson can be traded for Chris Olave and a 2024 1st round rookie pick, Garrett Wilson and a 2024 1st round rookie pick, or Jerry Jeudy and two 2024 1st round rookie picks. Holding on to Robinson is certainly an option, but if you can pull off a deal getting a top-10 dynasty receiver and an additional 1st-round rookie pick you’re almost duty-bound to make that deal. Robinson’s a luxury item whose value can never increase no matter how well he plays. If you already roster a monster team then feel free to ride Robinson out but understand it’s not an optimal dynasty strategy.
