Driving to the Tour Championship: 2024 BMW Championship Value Plays
As Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado, re-enters the PGA Tour stage, DFS golf players face a unique challenge in this week’s FedExCup Playoffs. This exclusive course, nestled in the Rocky Mountain foothills, hasn’t been seen on tour since 2006 when it hosted The International, a tournament remembered for its distinctive scoring format and dramatic finishes. Nearly two decades later, Castle Pines is back, ready to test a field of 50 elite golfers vying for a place in next week’s Tour Championship.
Understanding Castle Pines’ layout is crucial for those building DFS lineups. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, the course plays at a staggering 8,130 yards this week as a par 72, making it one of the longest setups in PGA Tour history. However, with the course over 6,000 feet above sea level, the thin air allows the ball to travel farther, shortening the playing yardage. Many holes also feature significant elevation changes, with uphill and downhill shots requiring precise calculations.
This week’s event is critical in the FedExCup Playoffs, as only the top 30 players in the standings will advance to the Tour Championship. Castle Pines presents a unique test around the greens, where there’s a lack of traditional short grass. Instead, fairway or rough cuts surround the greens, forcing players to be creative with their short game and making it crucial to control spin and trajectory.
Recent rain has likely softened the course, making it more receptive to approach shots, adding to the intrigue. Forecasts predict additional rain on Thursday, which could keep conditions soft through the first two rounds, potentially favoring players who excel in these conditions. This softer setup might reduce roll on drives, placing an even greater emphasis on precision over power.
As the FedExCup Playoffs heat up, Castle Pines is poised to deliver a thrilling competition that will challenge both the physical and mental aspects of the game. For DFS players, this course’s combination of length, elevation, soft conditions, and tricky green surroundings will be key factors to consider when finalizing lineups. Due to limited recent data, the key stats below are based on course flyover videos, the scorecard, and insights from club members.
SG: OTT
This one is relatively simple this week. Based on the flyover video and what we know about the course (elevation, fairways lined by all different hazards) it pays to be long and accurate off the tee. When you can’t hit driver off the tee, it pays to be accurate and hit your spots. I have heard from some people that accuracy doesn’t matter as much and that golfers can survive in the rough. However, I have seen pictures of how poor the lies some golfers got in the rough and it isn’t pretty. Playing out of the fairway and from a comfortable distance will be critical this week.
SG: Approach
I don’t have a clear answer for the distances most approach shots will be coming from this weekend. Some golfers will choose to layup and play their second shots from a bit longer because they are comfortable with it. The golfers that are longer and more accurate may elect to hit it further than expected because they are uncomfortable with longer approach shots. I know this: there is no traditional short grass around the greens. It is fairway and rough cut to the surface. Hitting it off the green means challenging shots to save par or worse because controlling those shots is difficult. While I am prioritizing long, accurate drivers, if they are below average on SG: App, they probably won’t be in my lineups.
Experience Playing at Altitude
This is a stretch, but one that I think is highly interesting. Players who aren’t used to playing at altitude can have difficulty figuring out appropriate club selection. Short iron shots may fly longer than expected, so if a golfer doesn’t figure that out it can lead to poor shots all week long. This is where it is important for golfers to have a solid caddy in the bag. Someone who can step in from time to time and remind them about the difference. It’s been almost 4 years since the WGC Mexico Championship, the last event played at this kind of elevation. Not too many golfers in this field played at Club de Golf Chapultepec, so while this isn’t the biggest concern, I expect it to be a factor in the winner this week.
Remember that after this weekend, only the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings move on to the Tour Championship. Due to the field size, I will give 3 value plays that I like after considering the above stats!
$7.1K – Sepp Straka
This seems like a great place for Straka. He is accurate off the tee and is well above average on approach. His average distance to the pin on approach is only 21 feet compared to almost 23 feet for tour average. At an elevated course, his mediocre distance may be negated putting him in a prime position. At only $7.1K I think Straka possesses enough birdie upside to stay competitive even if the winning score is around 22-24 under.
$6.9K – Nick Dunlap
A course that has birdie potential around every corner? That seems like the perfect place for Dunlap to excel. His length off the tee and great approach stats suggest he can navigate this course well. The only concerning thing about Dunlaps’ game is his accuracy off the tee can hurt him. Either way, he gets 4 full rounds to score birdies, and at this price in a 50-man event? You can’t get much more upside than this.
$6.2K – Adam Hadwin
This is just a true gut play. Hadwin is on the outside looking in for the Tour Championship and is barely inside the line for the Presidents Cup this year. He is relatively average all around, with no major glaring weakness Hadwin possesses the skill to compete at any time. The main question I have for Hadwin is, will he care this week or will he be indifferent? This is the last week to get points for the Presidents Cup team, so it’s his last chance to leave no doubt about playing at the end of September.
