Breaking Down The Backfield: San Francisco 49ers in 2019

Supply and demand in fantasy football dictates that three-down featured running backs continue to be the hottest draft day commodity. While wide receivers and even the top tight ends can be true difference makers, grabbing an elite running back continues to be a tired and true formula for fantasy success.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the San Francisco 49ers will be one of the teams that trots out a true workhorse running back. While Kyle Shanahan has had plenty of success as an offensive play caller, his backfields haven’t always followed a traditional path.

With a talented and young, but crowded backfield, what can fantasy football fans expect out of San Francisco’s running game in San Francisco?

Shanahan’s Offensive System

Kyle Shahan’s system borrows some elements from his father’s West Coast scheme with some added outside zone wrinkles. Bootlegs and play-action are still used but generally not as much as in the past.

A key tendency for Kyle Shanahan as a play caller has been diversity. Unlike some coaches who tend to try to fit their personnel into a system, Shanahan will change his scheme and formations to best suit his roster.

Balance has been key for the Shanahan-coached teams that have excelled. His most successful stints with the Texans and Falcons were predicated on balance. Those teams were at or near the top in passing but also were more than capable of hurting the defense on the ground.

In all, teams that have had Shanahan as the offensive coordinator or head coach average 4,014 passing yards and a healthy 1,827 rushing yards. While some of those rushing stats were padded with pre-injury Robert Griffin III under center in 2012-2013, running backs tend to succeed in Shanahan’s offense.

Running Back Usage

As his career has advanced as a play caller, Shanahan’s offenses have tended to run more than they did at the beginning. Shanahan’s 2009 Houston squad led the NFL in passing but ranked 30th on the ground. Conversely, his one year in Cleveland resulted in 1,728 rushing yards, which was very respectable for any club that had Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw making starts under center.

Whether it’s been because of injuries or an intentional division of labor, Shanahan tends to rely on multiple running backs and is not opposed to resorting to a full-blown committee backfield. Only Steve Slaton (2008) and Devonta Freeman (2015-16) have been used as three-down workhorses.

Alfred Morris averaged 1,444 rushing yards in 2012-2013 but was an abysmal receiver and essentially played only a two-down role. Before Morris was drafted in the sixth-round of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Redskins used a frustrating committee. We saw that same situation play out in Cleveland and again in the past two seasons in San Francisco.

The common element of those offenses was they lacked a running back that was talented, versatile, or durable enough to emerge as a potential workhorse.

That appears to be the case once again heading into 2019, Shanahan’s third season at the helm in San Francisco. If anything, the 49ers only added more fuel to the RBBC fire with the addition of free-agent acquisition Tevin Coleman and the debut of 2018 free agent Jerick McKinnon, who missed the entire 2018 campaign with a preseason knee injury.

Current Depth Chart

When you look at the club’s depth chart, it’s hard to envision one back stepping up and emerging as a potential fantasy RB1 or RB2. If anything, San Francisco targeted players that have a similar skill set that will allow Shanahan to mix and match players as he pleases.

In March, Shanahan even surmised that the Niners will have four backs active on game day. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s no fantasy value to be had out of San Francisco, it just means that fantasy footballers with have to pick and choose when and where to attack value on draft day.

Tevin Coleman signed a two-year deal for only $8.5 million after attracting less attention on the open market than was expected. Coleman played for Shanahan in Atlanta, posting top-20 fantasy numbers and scoring 11 touchdowns in 2016.

Coleman was used as the change-of-pace option behind Devonta Freeman in Atlanta and offers home-run speed, solid pass-catching skills and a nose for the end zone. He’s the early favorite to score the most fantasy points out of this crowded backfield.

Matt Breida flashed some feature back ability in the second of the 2018 season but was limited by an ankle injury. In all, Breida had three 100-yard rushing performances and led the team in rushing yards (814) and rushing touchdowns (3). He also led all half backs in targets (31), receptions (27), and receiving yards (261).

While Coleman has flashed more big-play ability and is probably the favorite for short-yardage duties, Breida will likely enter training camp atop the depth chart is a solid value with his deflated ADP.

Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL last summer and never played a down for the 49ers after signing a four-year, $30 million deal. The good news here is that McKinnon’s injury occurred early and should be fully healed in time for training camp. McKinnon’s 2019 guaranteed money deadline also passed, so his 2019 roster spot looks secure.

Unfortunately, McKinnon’s potential role isn’t as clear. Coleman is better at breaking off big gainers and both Coleman and Breida are quite capable as receivers. Touches could be hard to come by and limited.

Raheem Mostert averaged a whopping 7.7 yards per carry and looked really good as a change-of-pace option before his season was cut short after suffering a gruesome arm injury on national tv.

Curiously, San Francisco re-signed Mostert to a three-year extension, so there must be a plan in place, but it’s hard to envision there being enough touches to warrant any sort of attention on draft day.

2019 Fantasy Expectations

The return of Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback should do wonders for San Francisco’s passing attack, which will certainly open things up for the running backs. In 2018, the 49ers used ‘21’ personnel (two running backs, two wide receivers) on 54% of their snaps-– by far the most in the NFL.

They also invested heavily in retooling their receiving corps via the 2019 NFL Draft. The addition of second-rounder Deebo Samuel and third-round pick Jalen Hurd adds some much-needed depth and quality to an underachieving group and also ease some coverage off of superstar TE George Kittle.

San Francisco’s offense should be vastly improved this year. The club’s deep and talented backfield has a chance to post top-10 rushing numbers, which means there should be plenty of fantasy value to be had. The biggest problem will likely be picking and choosing which back to use in a week-to-week basis.