Breece Hall Fantasy Forecast 2022
Whenever a player is drafted as the first player drafted at his position in the NFL Draft, expectations for an immediate impact abound. Based on positional learning curves, this is especially true at the running back position. The 2022 NFL Draft and off-season saw the New York Jets load of offensive players, specifically at the skill positions. They signed Pro-Bowl offensive lineman Laken Tomlinson, and tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency then added Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (36th overall) in the draft’s first two rounds. Joining what should be a much-improved Jets offense, after a stellar collegiate career, with high draft capital much is expected of Hall in 2022. But will he be able to meet those expectations, or will some of last year’s running back holdovers at the running back position limit Hall’s ceiling?
2021 Workloads
The Jets were last in the league in rushing attempts per game in 2021 with 22.4 rushing attempts per game while finishing last in the league in total seasonal attempts with just 380 total rushing attempts. Of that total, the running backs on the roster were responsible for 326 of those attempts (86%). Of those 326 attempts, Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman, and Ty Johnson, each of whom remain on the Jets roster right now, accounted for 90% of the rushing attempts. Jets running backs were heavily involved in the passing game as their 22.5% target share was ninth highest in the league, and their 130 total targets were the seventh-most in the league. It must be noted that number is heavily skewed by games Mike White started, as he targeted the running backs on 58 attempts in just four games, which accounted for over 45% of all running back targets during the 2021 season. Looking at last year’s raw rushing attempts and targets provides a mixed bag for analysis purposes. While heavily used as receivers, the Jets largely shied away from running the ball at nearly all costs. You would expect the Jets, with a much better supporting cast and Zach Wilson now in his second season, to improve upon their anemic offense from 2021 when they ranked 23rd in touchdowns per game, 25th in rushing yards per game, 26th in total yards per game, and ranked 26th in plays per game, which should also mean increased rushing work, and increased receiving work as well if they pick up their pace of play.
Looking at last year’s snap shares shows the Jets primarily relied on Michael Carter and Ty Johnson to carry the load, with Tevin Coleman sprinkled in during his healthy weeks.
Michael Carter played on 51% offensive snaps last year, Ty Johnson on 37%. With Breece Hall in NY now, does Carter see even 37% of snaps in 2022?https://t.co/J2LRa9zE2T
— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) June 30, 2022
Assuming that Michael Carter will see a 51% snap share in 2022 after the Jets spent a second-round pick on Breece Hall is probably wishful thinking for anyone that rosters Carter.
Kyle Shanahan interlude
One thing I need to address is Jets head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur being branches off of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Shanahan has the reputation of loving running back by committees, but that reputation is based on narrative than actual data. Shanahan has shown to prefer one primary running back when the opportunity presents itself. Though Shanahan has largely cycled through running backs during his time in San Francisco, that’s largely been due to injuries to Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Matt Breida, etc., when he’s found a legit running back he features them, as he did with Elijah Mitchell who commandeered a 64%st) snap share last season. Going back to his day with the Texans and Steve Slaton, through his time in Washington with Alfred Morris, and continuing in Atlanta with Devonta Freeman, Shanahan has shown he will lean on one back. I only felt the need to address this because every time a coach comes from a specific coaching tree fantasy players like to subscribe to the theory that they will follow the same blueprint when that’s n the case, but even if it were, it’s moot in this instance. Shanahan does not prefer a committee and there’s no reason to assume the Jets will prefer one in 2022 either.
Back to the Program
There are a few reasons to think that the Jets will feature Breece Hall, and not force too heavy of a committee approach in 2021. Firstly, Hall was the first running back drafted in 2022, and history has shown that these running backs are typically bell-cows, even in their rookie seasons. The first running back drafted in the past 22 years has seen 262 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets) during their rookie season. Over the past five seasons, such running backs have seen an even more significant workload.
Over the past 5 seasons, the first rookie running back drafted has averaged 321 opportunities per season during their rookie seasons. Najee Harris had the most with 401 and CEH the fewest with 236. Thanks for the data @pahowdy !https://t.co/SNdFJv6QwS
— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) July 1, 2022
I should note, that a majority of these running backs, 20 out of 22, were first-round draft picks, and the subset of second-rounders, which Hall was, was not great. But even in noting that I would think we can all agree that Breece Hall is a significantly more impressive prospect than either Bishop Sankey or Giovani Bernard, the two second-rounders in this data set of prospect profiles, Hall’s was sterling.
Hall boasts elite speed, burst, and agility, and one of his closest physical comparisons is Jonathan Taylor. Not content with just being a physical star, Hall also dominated during his three seasons in college. Hall was an absolute workhorse in college and averaged over 295 touches over his final two seasons. Though Hall was certainly a thumper, averaging over 109 rushing yards per game in his three college seasons, and 122 yards per game in his final college season, he wasn’t just a rushing threat in college. Hall exceeded 20 receptions each season, reaching 36 in his final season, and falling in the 80th percentile of running backs in college target share.
You can take my word for it, Hall was a superior college producer, and athlete when compared to his main competition for touches on the Jets roster, Michael Carter, though Carter did best Hall in yards per carry during their collegiate careers. And just for fun, here’s a comparison of Jonathan Taylor vs. Breece Hall’s collegiate production.
The Jets not only made Hall the first running back off the board, but they also traded up to do so, giving the New York Giants a 5th-round pick in the 2022 draft to slide up three spots to select Hall at 35 overall with Jets general manager noting: “We worked the phone lines trying to make a small move to get up and make sure we got our guy,”. Not only did they move up in the second round to get Hall, but the Jets were also willing and actively trying to trade back into the first round of the draft to select him, with Douglass saying: “Yeah, we were active, we were on the phones towards the end of the round,”. There is evidence that running backs that are acquired in the NFL Draft via a trade-up, especially in the first two rounds of the draft, typically have better fantasy finishes than the running backs who were not. Anecdotally, some of the running backs teams have traded up for in the second round over a couple of seasons include Javonte Williams, Jonathan Taylor, and David Montgomery, each of whom had excellent rookie seasons, both in fantasy and a from a real-world perspective.
Breece Hall was the first running back drafted in 2022, the team that drafted him traded up to do so. His collegiate workload was elite, his college production was elite, and he’s an elite athlete. His second-round draft capital is what NFL teams spend on bell-cow running backs, and it dwarfs the fourth-round capital the Jets spent on Michael Carter, capital that is usually spent on role players. The Jets backfield is crowded in the same sense that every NFL backfield is crowded, in that it has a starter and then several backups, but I see no reasons that Hall won’t smash in year one. He might not touch the ball 30 times a game, but besides outliers, no back does anymore, but he should easily eclipse 20 opportunities per game.
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