Breece Hall Fantasy Preview

Breece Hall Fantasy 2023

Breece Hall has been one of my favorite fantasy football prospects to talk about during the 2023 offseason. Now there’s a little bump in the road as the New York Jets have signed free agent running back and former Vikings player Dalvin Cook to the roster. While this is something that can impact his fantasy value, I don’t think it will be something that fantasy managers should “jump ship” about. Hall was one of the best rookie running backs in the league before going down with a torn ACL against the Denver Broncos in Week 7. Despite the injury, Hall’s recovery has been going according to plan with no setbacks, with Hall even recently being activated from the PUP list. Hall has been back at practice and hasn’t had any setbacks since returning. Hall still has solid fantasy value heading into the 2023 season even with Dalvin Cook on the team. 

Current ADP

• ADP – 33

• RB ADP – #RB13

As previously stated, Hall was one of the top rookies last season before going down with a season-ending injury. Hall was the RB7 over the first seven weeks of the season and he was eighth in fantasy points per game at 16.9. Breece Hall averaged 5.8 y/a over that same span and scored five total touchdowns. Another key piece of data that made Breece Hall so dangerous was his ability to break big runs. Hall would have seven plays of 20+ yards and was ninth in rushing yards. Hall is a great runner with not only makes defenders miss but can use his speed and his pass-catching ability to pull off big plays from the running back position. This is what fantasy managers are hoping to get from him as the new season inches closer. Hall’s projected ADP places him just outside the top 12/RB1 status. With the new additions the Jets have made to bolster the offense this season, there’s no reason why expectations for Hall in the Jets’ offense are ready to take flight for fantasy. While Cook will have a role in the Jets’ offense, Breece Hall should still be the running back to see the majority of touches. Breece Hall was cruising without the new additions to the offense last season with quarterbacks like Mike White and Zach Wilson under center. Now he gets a boost in total offensive power from Aaron Rodgers, who was traded to the Jets this offseason, and Allen Lazard who signed in free agency. Hall was on pace to become a full bell-cow back before his injury. After the first three weeks of the 2022 season, Hall’s rushing attempts jumped to 17, 18, and 20 over the following three games. And before he went down against Denver in Week 7, Hall averaged 18 yards per carry on just seven attempts. Now with Rodgers under center and defenses having to account for a real threat over the likes of Zach Wilson, Hall should have an even better chance, should he stay healthy, to produce at a high level for fantasy managers. Out of all the running backs to target in his area, Hall has the best potential to produce as a top 10 running back in 2023. 

Fantasy Insight

One primary belief as to why Dalvin Cook was added to the team is that he allows Breece Hall to continue his recovery to get to 100%. ACL recovery can long road and Hall may need additional time to get right. If this is the true path, Hall would be able to return to the team at full strength while the Jets’ offense doesn’t miss a beat until then. Or at the very least, Cook could be running the show until the Jets’ brass feel comfortable enough with his progress to let Hall loose. Another scenario is that Hall is ready to go to Week One with no limitations. If that were to happen, Hall would likely be eased back into his RB1 role with Cook helping to ease the burden until Hall was fully confident to go. Whichever scenario you prescribe, Hall still looks to be the RB1 in that backfield. The Jets rushing attack finished with a 25th rank by the end of the season last year without Breece Hall in the backfield. While Cook does hang a sort of “dark cloud” over the backfield and should be able to help the offense out if and when needed, Cook may yet just be a solid depth piece to have in the event something happens to Breece Hall again. Otherwise, Breece Hall is your guy. 

“Hall said his knee is sound, although he also said he still experiences occasional knee soreness and still wonders whether he can make certain cuts.”

Breece Hall’s hurdle will be trusting his knee in cutting mvmt.

Still betting he gets there by Wk5-6.https://t.co/qNVr4alNSK

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 16, 2023

Fantasy Value

Hall’s fantasy value is still holding strong despite the Dalvin Cook signing which is impressive. Usually, a move like that would impact a fantasy player’s value right off the bat. However, Hall’s fantasy value still remains where it’s at. That’s because we have his last season to sink our teeth into as to his fantasy potential once he’s fully healthy. Hall is currently being taken off the board around guys like Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Should Hall be ready to go Week One with no limitations, he should be locked in at his draft price. Hall’s potential is just that good, maybe even too good to pass up on. It will all hinge on his training camp reports and his continuing progress and gaining confidence in his knee. Hall was on pace to 1,247 yards rushing with 11 touchdowns on the season. That kind of production is something fantasy managers should be excited to get their hands on during their fantasy drafts this season. The fact that Hall’s fantasy value hasn’t moved since the Cook signing looks to be a clear indication that fantasy managers believe that once Hall is fully cleared to go and start Week One, he’ll be able to return to form or be even better than last season. 

Dynasty Value

Young running backs are key. Young and talented running backs you don’t give away. Hall definitely falls in that category. Hall is a running back with a lot of talent in an offense expected to take new heights after all the moves they made this offseason. Hall is worth a top pick if you’re thinking of trading him but that might not be the move to make. Hall was a second-round pick out of the 2022 NFL Draft and the Jets’ have been high on Hall ever since. Once Hall is healthy, he should be back in the RB1 slot for the team. Dynasty managers shouldn’t be trying to move Hall at all. Remember, Cook signed only a one-year deal. This move signals at minimum a rebuilding of value after this year or a possible “in case of emergency, break glass”. Breece Hall holds both potential and value. Hall is just 22 years old and has his whole NFL career ahead of him. Hall will remain with the Jets as their prized position so Hall managers will need to weather the storm. Even while recovering from his knee injury, you’d be hard-pressed to find a fantasy manager willing to trade the Jets’ top rushing option for draft picks. Good running backs are hard to come by, believe it or not. If you’re trying to trade for Hall, you’ll probably have to give up a lot to get him. Hall isn’t going to come cheap. If I have any shares of Hall this season, I’m holding onto them, and IF (that’s the biggest “if” my editor would let me put in the article) I need to make a move to bolster an area on my dynasty team, I can make that move with a blue chip piece. Otherwise, unless an offer knocks my socks off, he’s staying right where he’s at. Hall offers too much potential as a running back that can operate as a three-down back. You won’t find these guys lying around in this age of the NFL. Hall’s dynasty value shouldn’t be budging from the injury or the signing of Dalvin Cook. Cook is only on the team for the 2023 season. He’s on a one-year deal with $8.6 million. That’s not a long-term threat for what Breece Hall presents to fantasy managers in Dynasty formats. So don’t take the bait of players trying to sell you on the “Dalvin Cook is the new running back to own” talk in the league chats. 

This is 100% normal for where Hall is in his recovery/return to play process. But it also underscores the importance of giving him the breathing room to ramp up his activity, including ramping up workload when he does return to competition.

— Stephania Bell (@Stephania_ESPN) August 16, 2023

Bold Prediction 

The addition of Dalvin Cook is something that fantasy managers will be heavily considering when they are entering their fantasy drafts but I’m starting to go with the thought that Cook’s signing is just more of an insurance policy. Head coach Robert Saleh seems to really like Breece Hall and his performance last season has been etched in the minds of fantasy managers and the sports media world. Hall, to be able to make that kind of impact in his rookie season alone, is incredible. Everyone will be watching for his status as we get closer to Week One but Hall has just too much upside to not take the risk in drafting him at his ADP. In an offense with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after how things ended in Green Bay, I’m expecting the Jets’ offense to be one of the best offenses in the league with Hall being a big reason why. With that being said, Hall should come in around 1,300 total yards and about 10 total touchdowns. 

More Breece Hall –

We’ve seen him cut off his left leg.
Now we see he’s comfortable dragging, digging in, and accelerating off his left without hesitation & without force disruption. Subtle curvilinear movement.
He’s going to produce early for fantasy.👀
pic.twitter.com/jrrESR0e8l

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 17, 2023