Buy Low/Sell High: Week 4
Waivers in Week 4 are always a huge part. A lot of people want to pick up the “next best player” after only a one or two-week performance. This will encourage teams to sell other players who didn’t do too well to either make room on their team or because they think this new player, they got will be better. This will allow you to buy low on big names and get your team built for the long haul. On the other hand, if you have a player that flashes, you can sell high to capitalize on the hype of this player. You can get players you never would’ve dreamt of in return. That’s the key to making your team successful over a long season. This year will be the longest in NFL history because it is 17 games. This is a good practice run if you never have bought or participated in the stock market. You buy stocks (players) when they are at their lowest price. That way, you only increase your monetary value and improve your net worth (how good your team is). If you do it right, you can “win” a lot (win a championship).
On the other hand, you want to predict when the stocks (players) are at their peak price (trade value). That’s because you want the most return for your investment (player). That way you can ensure your team is always heading towards its peak throughout the season. You want your guys to peak to come playoff time. You want to win a championship. Of course, scoring a bunch early on is fun. Yet, if you can trade the high-risk guys who blew up one week and turn them into steady, high-performing contributors week in, and week out, do it. That’s how you win championships. You play the fantasy football market.
Now, it’s always helpful to have people advise you on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who had a rough week or two. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR. FYI, all the stats come from our very own Fantasy Data. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:
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Buy Low
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders, Running Back
Jacobs is still receiving a bell-cow sized workload. He saw 82% of the snaps and had 17 carries. He also caught three balls and got five targets. This is good news. He may not be producing up to his standards, but that will come. For now, he’s continuing to get plenty of work. Plus, the touchdowns will come. Jacobs has the most red zone touches of any running back that’s yet to score. They will come. When they do, you’ll regret not getting Jacobs for cheap. Plus, he started slow last year and he only wound up leading the NFL in rushing yards. Take advantage of his slow start and buy when someone is panicking that he isn’t the Jacobs from last year. That guy is still in there.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants, Running Back
Yes, Barkley is hurt. However, he missed Week Three and is still the RB18 on the season. He was seeing a bell-cow sized role. In Week Two he had 17 rushes and seven targets. Daniel Jones needs him bad to be his dump-off behind a rough offensive line and limited receiving weapons. Barkley will continue to be a star running back when he gets back, perhaps as soon as this week. See if someone is 0-3 and needs a win this week or is thin on running back depth. Try offering two of them for Barkley. It might hurt in Week Four for you, but Saquon has league-winning ability.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars, Wide Receiver
Remember when Ridley started off red-hot with eight grabs for 101 yards and a touchdown. Since then, he has just five catches on 15 targets for 72 yards and no touchdowns. He has struggled in the weeks since with multiple issues, but the talent is still there. So are the targets. Trevor Lawrence still trusts him a lot. 15 targets over two games projects for 127 targets. He still has a 24% target share and five red-zone targets. The big game is coming soon, perhaps against his former team. Still, buy while the hype is low and people are pondering if he is going to be the same Ridley again. He will be, he just needed a couple of games to adjust back. Plus, the NFL adjusted pretty well to him after his big Week One.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers, Wide Receiver
Anytime you can get a piece of the 49ers offense for cheap, do it. Aiyuk is that guy as he is injured. He could be back in Week Four which means there’s a limited time available to trade for him. Deebo and Kittle just had a massive game in Week Three. The general thought now is that Aiyuk could be the piece of the puzzle that won’t get his fair share of touches. Despite the fact that he was their leading receiver when all of the big-four were healthy. Brock Purdy targets him often and will continue to do so. Take advantage of the hype surrounding Deebo Samuel and Kittle and be a veteran fantasy player. Buy low on the guy who is going to get his touches despite the lack of hype.
Honorable Mentions: David Montgomery, Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen Waddle
Sell High
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins, Running Back
This one is obvious. The man just scored 53 points in a single week. It doesn’t get any higher to sell off of than that. He’s the RB6 on the season basically off of that one week. That’s likely going to be the precipice of his entire fantasy career. He isn’t ever going to top it or likely ever come close to it. So, why wouldn’t you sell him for a better or more reliable RB2? Achane saw just two touches in their Week Two game. Now, Jeff Wilson is coming back from injury. That’s going to be a three-headed monster when it comes to fantasy projections. Sell while everyone wants him. Plus, they won’t face a defense as bad as the Broncos again this season.
Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos, Wide Receiver
Look, Marvin Mims isn’t going to end the season as a WR2. At least not with his current workload. While it’s impressive that he’s had 113 yards and 73 yards in the last two games respectively. He did that on just seven total targets and five total receptions. That’s not sustainable. Busted coverages aren’t going to happen for him every week. Nor is the fact that he is seeing under 10% of the targets. Plus, he is playing on just 25% of the snaps. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are still the lead receivers. Mims is exciting, but he isn’t going to be a player you can rely on for weekly WR2 points until he sees way more targets. He’s on pace for just 51 targets. Sell now while there’s still interest.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins, Running Back
Mostert is outperforming even the most optimistic projections right now. He’s the RB1, outscoring CMC by over 12 points. That isn’t sustainable. Nor is the fact that Mostert has missed time in every season since 2019. He played in just 25 games over three years from 2020-22. So, you should take full advantage of his impressive start and trade him while the scoring is hot. You might take a hit over a week or two, but it can easily pay off. If someone offers you Barkley or Ekeler, take it. After all, you want to sell when the stove is hot.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears, Wide Receiver
The Bears offense is in dire straights right now. Despite that, Moore is still putting up good fantasy numbers. He has had at least 13 points in two straight weeks. However, I wouldn’t bet money that it is sustainable. He’s seeing just six targets or so a game. That’s not enough to put up WR2 numbers that we are used to seeing Moore put up. Nor is the fact that Justin Fields is playing horribly. You can’t rely on Moore to average 17 yards a catch or to get a touchdown every week. Instead, you need to sell while you still can. Sell him and see what you can get. If you can get Aiyuk or Ridley, do it asap. Those two will take off again soon while Moore is likely left in the dust.
Honorable Mentions: James Conner, George Kittle, Romeo Doubs
As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season!
Of course,
May the Force be with You…
