OC Kellen Moore 2023
Kellen Moore and Mike McCarthy formed an uneasy, yet successful partnership since the 2020 season when McCarthy was brought on as the Cowboys head coach and retained Moore who had been the offensive coordinator since the season prior. From a statistical perspective, Moore’s tenure was a success, finishing as a top-six scoring offense in three of his four seasons while leading the league in yards in two of those seasons. But McCarthy never seemed to fully embrace Moore and wanting to put his stamp of ownership on the offense the Cowboys and Moore had a parting of ways this off-season. While that decision could be an article in and of itself today we’ll focus on what to expect from a Los Angeles Chargers offense that now will be led by Moore.
Coaching Experience
Kellen Moore was a prolific college passer at Boise State passing for over 14,000 yards and 142 touchdowns during his college career. Though Moore was a record-setter during his time at Boise State, and even led them to an undefeated 2009 season (14-0), but did spend six years in the NFL as a backup quarterback, including three of those seasons with the Cowboys. After a season spent as the quarterback coach, Moore took over as Dallas’s offensive coordinator in 2019. As noted above Moore led successful high-producing offenses in every year of his coaching career, even if you exclude the 2020 season when the Cowboys were a more middle-of-the-pack offense, finishing 14th in yards and 17th in points scored. The reason for the dip in offensive production in 2020 can be directly linked to Dak Prescott missing all but five games due to an ankle injury suffered against the New York Giants in Week 5. Moore’s offenses were highly efficient during his time as an offensive coordinator as well, finishing in the top five in EPA per play each season excluding the 2020 season. Overall in four seasons with Moore as the offensive coordinator, the Cowboys ranked second in points per game (27.7), and net offensive yards per game. Not to belabor the point, but with Prescott under center, Moore’s Cowboy offenses were even more impressive.
The Dallas Cowboys are averaging 29.9 PPG with Dak Prescott under center since 2019.
That is the highest PPG among all teams and QBs during that span.
And we still have national media members out there believing Dak isn’t good.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) August 29, 2023
What’s interesting about the Cowboys offense is how their passing rate has decreased steadily over the past three seasons, they finished 10th in 2020 with a 59.8%, 14th in 2021 with a 57.8% rage, and 22nd in 2022 with a 51.1% rate. It’s an especially interesting juxtaposition considering the Chargers finished with the third-highest rate in 2021, and the second-highest rate in 2022, despite the conventional narrative that former Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was an ultra-conservative game caller. Last year could be a symptom of the Cowboys shipping off Amari Cooper before the season, leaving just Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz as legitimate passing options.
What to Expect:
Quarterback:
Though the Chargers might have passed at a high rate under Joe Lombardi, it’s how those targets were distributed that caused frustration for Chargers fans and Justin Herbert fantasy managers. Targets to the running backs and tight ends accounted for over 44% of pass attempts compared to the 39% of such targets for the Cowboys. While Austin Ekeler is an explosive running back, targets to the running back and tight ends don’t exactly scream high-impact offense. Though Justin Herbert ranked second in pass attempts last year his 17.1 PPG ranked just 13th overall, which is a tell-tale sign of an inefficient offense. Herbert ranked 25th in yards per attempt, and 32nd in air yards per attempt last year which should be illegal considering the arm that Herbert possesses. Expect Herbert’s YPA and AYPA, as Dak Prescott finished top 13th in each of those categories in both 2021 and 2022. Though Herbert’s ranked eighth in passing touchdowns, and second in passing yards, he could see an increase in fantasy scoring with a more efficient offense, even if his passing yards do take a dip.
Running Backs
Even if the Chargers did pass at a higher rate compared to Moore’s Cowboys, it’s how they distributed those targets that caused many Chargers fans to label the offense as unimaginative and conservative. Per Fantasypros the Chargers led the league in target share to running backs with a 26% target share to the position, while Moore’s Cowboys 15.6% target share to the position ranked 26th. A big reason that running backs were used at such a high rate in the passing attack is that they were awful in the running game for the Chargers last year, ranking 30th in rushing yards per game, and 30th in rushing yards per attempt (3.7). There was little to no explosion to be found in the Chargers rushing attack, and Austin Ekeler finished towards the bottom of the league in rushes 20+ yards or more. Ekeler was the RB1 last year, built off of touchdowns (18) and receptions (107). The Chargers did add another pass catcher in the first round of the NFL draft, but I fully expect Ekeler to remain the focal point of the offense, unless both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams somehow remain healthy all season, which is not a given considering Allen’s age and 2022 season, and Williams extensive injury history.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen may no longer command a 30%+ target share like he did in his prime, but he’s still commanded over 26% of targets in each of the past three seasons. Moore has shown he will hyper-target his alpha receivers in the past, Ceedee Lamb had a 24.7% target share in 2020 and was at 30.1% last year, and if Allen is healthy there’s no way he sees fewer than a 26% share this year as well. Allen is aging but his game has never been predicated on physical skills and as long he’s healthy he’ll be a top 15 WR (PPG). Mike Williams is a boom-bust option but one that could see a boon under Moore. Since ranking second in yards per reception in 2019, he’s seen that rate steadily decline and finished 25th in that category last year. An efficient offense is one that hits on its deep shots and Williams is the Charger receiver best suited for that role. Kellen Moore offenses do you have a history of targeting the offenses WR3 at a decent rate during his time as a play-caller, so if Williams and Allen do stay healthy we can expect Quentin Johnston to approach a 15% target share in the offense, if he can grasp the offense and maximize the times they do use him. If Allen or Williams miss time than Johnston could be primed for one of the better rookie seasons of the 2023 class.
Tight Ends
The tight end position wasn’t a featured priority of the Chargers offense with 18.4% of their targets going to the tight end position, while the Cowboys featured the tight end more to the tune of a 23.9% target share. This might give you some hope for Gerald Everett, but after six seasons in the league, we know what Everett is. Last year’s 9.3 PPG was a career-high, enabling him to finish as the TE11 (PPG), but he’s never commanded more than 15% of targets in any season, and he’s the definition of a replacement-level player. If you punt the tight end position, then Everett is fine to stick in your lineup every week, with minimal expectations of him producing a fantasy-relevant week.
