New Look For Browns: Watson to Cooper
On the heels of perhaps the most eventful offseason in NFL history, the Cleveland Browns will enter the 2022 season as one of the most scrutinized teams in the NFL. There is so much to unpack with the Browns for fantasy purposes, including two “household name” newcomers at skill positions, a disconnect between talent and scheme, and the cloud of a possible suspension.
First, let’s summarize the major personnel moves for the Browns at the skill positions:
- QB: Acquired Deshaun Watson
- RB: Tendered D’Ernest Johnson (can seek other offers which Browns have a right to match)
- WR: Acquired Amari Cooper, acquired Jakeem Grant, released Jarvis Landry
- TE: Released Austin Hooper
A few moves that we can brush off for fantasy are the tendering of D’Ernest Johnson and the signing of Jakeem Grant. Johnson either takes a better deal elsewhere or stays in Cleveland at third on the depth chart, rendering him a likely non-factor for the 2022 Browns barring injury. Grant profiles predominantly as a return specialist unlikely to affect the offense with consistent usage.
This leaves Watson and Cooper as the primary agents of change, with the Hooper release far less significant but still worth a look for the sake of TE David Njoku’s outlook.
Deshaun Watson Expectations
If Deshaun Watson’s most recent stat line (2020) occurred in 2021, here’s where he would have finished in the QB rankings.
There may be a perception in fantasy circles that the emergence of young star quarterbacks over the past two years might squeeze Watson out of the elite tier, but that doesn’t seem likely. Not only would Watson’s 2020 numbers have given him a top 5 finish in 2021, but notice the clear tier dropoff after Patrick Mahomes. Watson was above the line of that dropoff, putting him in select company of quarterbacks who actually provided a reliable and consistent edge at the position.. He remains arguably the best combination of arm talent and rushing ability of anyone not named Josh Allen.
In season-long formats, the only quarterbacks I would rank above Watson without hesitation are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. Once you get into Kyler Murray territory and beyond, it becomes entirely reasonable to take a chance on Watson’s proven upside.
The possibility of a suspension remains. The fact that nearly all of Watson’s 1st-year compensation comes via his signing bonus may indicate that the Browns have an expectation of him missing time in 2022, but that is purely speculation. For fantasy purposes, I will assume there is no suspension – fantasy managers will have to discount Watson’s value in line with their own risk tolerance of him not being out there for some period of time.
Amari Cooper – Undisputed WR1
When Amari Cooper was traded from Dallas to Cleveland, there was a collective groan in the fantasy community. Nobody wanted to see a talented receiver enter his age 28 season on a run-first team with uncertainty at the quarterback position.
That was March 12th. Then everything changed on March 18th.
News of the Watson trade not only brought Cooper’s value back up, but it brought it to a level arguably higher than where it was in Dallas. No longer competing for looks with CeeDee Lamb and a loaded Dallas arsenal, Cooper should get peppered with targets as long as he isn’t derailed by durability issues.
Watson does have a history of feeding his alpha wide receivers. If we look at his 3-year overlap with DeAndre Hopkins in Houston and compare it to Cooper’s production over the same time period, it is not surprising that Hopkins has higher production. What is a bit surprising, however, is that the advantage appears to be driven entirely by volume and NOT by efficiency. Cooper yielded more fantasy points per target over that period and even had more total points than Hopkins in 2019 on 31 fewer targets.
Amari Cooper may not be DeAndre Hopkins, but he doesn’t have to be in order to exceed his draft price. All he needs is volume to elevate the efficiency he already has. In a new home with no major competition for target share, that seems likely. While targets are earned, and Hopkins has done more to earn them than just about anyone, Hopkins finishing in the top 5 in targets each year with Watson is an encouraging sign. Cooper may be the ONLY wide receiver who is the undisputed top option for his team, is tied to a top-tier quarterback, and is expected to be drafted outside of the first 3 rounds.
Reconciling Talent With Scheme
While the talent of Watson and Cooper far exceeds anything the Browns put on display a year ago, there are still questions. How quickly can the Browns change their offensive philosophy to match the strengths of their new stars? Run-pass option (RPO) usage and target distribution may give us some clues…
RPOs
Deshaun Watson HEAVILY utilized the RPO in Houston, particularly during his best fantasy years. Cleveland has been among the lowest in the league at running the RPO during coach Stefanski’s tenure.
I’m curious how quickly teams can shift their offensive scheme/philosophy. In D Watson’s 3 top 5 years in HOU, they were 3rd in RPO plays ran. Under Stefanski & Van Pelt, CLE has been 28th in RPO plays run 2020-2021. CLE also bottom 5 in pass plays and passTD% in that time.
1/2
— Scott Rinear 🌻🇺🇦🌻 (@MunderDifflinFF) March 26, 2022
Will a coach and OC who do not have a history of running RPOs suddenly make it a focal point of their scheme? I think it’s unlikely. Watson can scramble with the best of them on broken plays, but this disconnect has the potential to limit his designed runs, and possibly impact the high rushing floor that he had in Houston. The silver lining is that he’s not a Lamar Jackson who is expected to run for 800-1000 yards to begin with, so room for decline is not massive simply due to RPOs. Over Watson’s last 3 years in Houston, he averaged 469 rushing yards per season. Matching that mark seems well within reach even if it looks a bit different in terms of play design.
Target Distribution
Watson’s most recent target distribution and the Browns’ most recent target distribution look very different. Not surprisingly, the data behind Watson is great news for Cooper and perhaps even for another WR like Donovan Peoples-Jones to emerge as a more valuable fantasy option. However, the Browns targeted non-WRs almost half the time last year. It can be easy to write this off as a function of Baker Mayfield but it might not be quite so simple, particularly considering the identity and offensive philosophy of their head coach.
It remains to be seen if distribution fully skews back to where Watson was in Houston, or if Cleveland’s scheme keeps it more balanced. Bear in mind that Watson never had a Kareem Hunt or even a David Njoku type of weapon in Houston. I anticipate the distribution to be somewhere between the two samples shown above.
RBs & TEs?
The Browns RB I am most concerned about within the new offense is Kareem Hunt. I believe Nick Chubb will get a larger share of the running back workload with Watson behind center, a welcome change for such a talented pure runner. The prospect of Chubb’s hard running combined with the threat of Watson’s mobility strikes me as the Browns’ optimal personnel package. Hunt also had an unsustainable touchdown rate, which pushes him pretty far down my board.
The immediate reaction for the tight end room in Cleveland after the Watson signing was a potential breakout for David Njoku, particularly without Austin Hooper, but I don’t believe it is justified. Watson’s propensity to target his tight ends far less than Baker Mayfield might make Njoku a trap for fantasy. His narrative is propped up by expected improvement in quarterback play, but the devil is in the details and Njoku may have a more difficult road to TE1 status than people think. It would not be surprising to see the tight end position more focused on protecting Cleveland’s new $230M asset. If I’m looking at late-round tight ends, I am far more interested in Cole Kmet or Albert Okwuegbunam.
Conclusion
The Browns are tentatively the only team in the NFL with both a new QB1 and a new clear-cut WR1 (subject to any further big offseason moves). As fans and fantasy managers, this means we have to change our existing perception of the offense. Typically a wasteland for fantasy outside of the running backs, Watson breathes new life into a passing game that has underdelivered for a generation. As it relates to fantasy production, Watson is probably a little undervalued, while Cooper is heavily undervalued. However, we also need to exercise some caution on whether high tides truly rise all boats – I believe Kareem Hunt and David Njoku will be over-drafted due to the halo effect of Watson. Let’s just hope this is finally the year Nick Chubb gets the workload he deserves.
