Cole Kmet Fantasy Preview 2024
Kmet, at 6’6″ and 260 pounds, boasts the size to bully his way through defenses. With good separation skills, speed, and improved blocking ability, he’s built to be a formidable force on the field. In his fifth NFL season, Kmet emerges from two successful campaigns with the Chicago Bears. The tally for 2023 stands stout: across 17 battles, he snatched 73 passes from 90 targets, amassing 719 yards and lighting up the end zone six times. His presence on the field, a formidable 77.15% of snaps, places him seventh among tight ends—a fertile ground for fantasy fortune, averaging 10.8 PPR points per game.
Yet, the winds of change howl across the windy city. As the 2024 campaign beckons, Kmet finds himself amidst a reimagined offensive cosmos, now helmed by the ex-Seahawks offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron. The arsenal, fortified by top-tier recruits, boasts the top NFL draft pick, Caleb Williams, poised to ignite their aerial assault. Alongside him, Rome Odunze, the ninth overall prodigy, brings explosive potential to Chicago’s receiving ranks. And in a whirlwind of trades and free agent acquisitions, the Bears also secured the electric Keenan Allen and the versatile Gerald Everett, both adding their prowess to the mix. Not to be outdone, the dynamic D’Andre Swift also joined this symphony of offensive might. These forces join the fray alongside the formidable D.J. Moore.
With such an influx of receiving talent, Kmet’s role in the passing game could be under siege. The presence of Moore, Allen, and Odunze—each likely to demand a significant share of targets—may push Kmet down the pecking order. A glance at Waldron’s days in Seattle offers clues to what might be in store for Kmet. In 2023, Seattle’s wide receivers commanded 63% of the target share, with the top trio alone accounting for 58% of the team’s passes. Seattle’s tight ends, in contrast, received a mere 17% of the target share, down 6% from the previous year—a decline likely driven by offensive line struggles and the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Caleb Williams to Cole Kmet pic.twitter.com/wCKfNjvn1A
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) August 1, 2024
In Chicago, a similar distribution could emerge. In 2023, DJ Moore recorded 96 receptions on 136 targets, Keenan Allen posted 108 receptions on 150 targets, and Odunze, brought in as an immediate contributor, is projected to see at least 60 targets in his rookie year. This target estimate mirrors Seattle’s big three. Additionally, Swift, who saw 49 targets in 2023, might see an uptick with a rookie quarterback—especially considering his average of 74 targets per year during his last two years in Detroit.
Waldron’s offensive scheme might further complicate matters for Kmet’s fantasy prospects. Historically, Waldron rotates his tight ends, diluting each one’s snap share. Kmet’s 2023 workload far exceeds any single tight-end usage in Waldron’s tenure. Last year, Noah Fant led with a mere 55% snap share, trailed by Colby Parkinson at 47% and Will Dissly at 39%. Their target distribution was similarly narrow, with Fant seeing 45 targets compared to Dissly’s 22. In contrast, Kmet commanded 80.4% of Chicago’s tight-end targets in 2023, receiving 73 more targets than the team’s TE2, Robert Tonyan.
To further complicate Kmet’s situation, Chicago added veteran pass-catching specialist Gerald Everett on a two-year, $12 million deal. One can imagine that in 12 and 13 personnel groupings, Waldron will play to the strengths of each tight end, with Everett lining up in the slot and Kmet, the more commanding blocker, taking in-line duties. If keeping their rookie quarterback upright is a priority, the Bears may lean heavily on Kmet’s blocking abilities.
If these patterns hold true in 2024, Kmet could see a reduction in snap share, an increase in blocking duties, and an overall dip in fantasy numbers. However, Kmet is arguably the most potent tight end Waldron has ever had in his quiver, which might lead to some unique usage. Furthermore, Kmet could develop a strong connection with his new quarterback that keeps him fantasy-relevant in 2024. At this juncture, drafting Kmet as a TE2 in redraft leagues seems prudent, but his current ADP in Best Ball leagues might be a bit too steep.
