Daily Fantasy Advice: Learnings From The 2023 NFL DFS Season

Daily Fantasy Advice

You are sitting in your favorite spot, with DFS lineups set, and Scott Hanson just said,” Seven hours of commercial-free football starts now!” And now you wait to see if you are a million dollars richer – the dream. I will show you the various paths all 18 winners used to stuff their bank accounts with some serious cash. Before I break down each position, I will leave you with this. The average winning lineup spend was $49,883. It was split an even nine times where the winner used their entire $50,000 cap or was in the $49,XXX range. Spend as close to the cap as you can. The average draft % of players was 13.6%. This is important, as I will extrapolate on that as we go. Lastly, if you want a chance at the riches, your team needs to average 232.51 points.

Dare To Be Different At QB

In 2023, the average ownership of a quarterback on a winning team was 8.98%. When looking at ownership projections, this should be a significant red flag if you are on the same QB as everyone else. Remember that 10% is too much. Next, look at your spending. Should you spend up or spend down? The average cost of QB in the Milly makers was $6,422. You do not need to break the bank on high-end players with rush potential. Brock Purdy was at the helm of five winning teams, the most out of any QB. Ensure you try not to play your quarterback naked; stack him with a teammate. Only two winners had a solo QB in their lineup. One was Brock Purdy, and the other was Matt Stafford. Again, this proves we do not need rushing potential. You want to average 30.56 points to be with the best. Cheap, under-owned shoot-out potentials should be under your microscope.

Chalk Tastes Better Than Dust

When it comes to running backs, if everyone is on a player, you should jump on that train. The average ownership was the highest out of all the positions at a whopping 20.71%. The average spend was $6,022. What does that mean to you? Every great running back is always $7,000 – $9,000+. How does that make any sense? It’s simple: running backs filling in for injured starters showed they have the highest scoring potential based on their value. Remember, if you want a million-dollar team, you need your players to average 4x their value to have a really strong chance. If a player is $5,500, you need 22 fantasy points to hit that value. The average RBs scored 25.28 points on the winning teams. We want to be a truffle pig rooting around that cost range to find the goods.

Treat Wide Receivers Like Boxers

Imagine you are at the biggest boxing event of the year. With celebrities in the crowd and fans cheering, there is a significant problem. Only one boxer is fighting. Wouldn’t the match be better if both boxers were swinging? That’s the mindset you need for WRs. They need to be paired with their QB or a bring back from the other team. You need two people punching. The average WR spend is $5,883, but that doesn’t help unlock much information. You need to fill three WR slots, so of course, the spend will be less. When I dug deeper, I found that this is the correlation you need to understand. Whoever you spend the most on, buy the cheap WR2 on the other team. In more cases than not, the winning lineup had a bring-back player around that position. If the other team is matching pace, it’s because extra bodies are getting involved. This is why we see an average ownership of WR at 12.85%. This skill position has the highest average points at 29.16. Do not be afraid to buy the WR of the week with a high cost and projection, but be braver and buy that WR with less than 5% ownership on the other team who can punch back.

If You Want To Dance, You Have To Pay The Fiddler

Have you ever been to a massive amusement park? Most first-timers make the mistake of paying for the standard admission and end up waiting hours in lineups. What do the veterans do? They purchase the express pass, walk right in, and enjoy themselves. That’s what the winners did when it came to TE. The average spend on a tight end was $4,600. Six teams paired their TE and QB. But let’s twist the knife further and really open this up. Three times, we saw TE in the flex position. The picture should be clear at this point. TE cost vs value is essential for success. You could apply that logic to all players, but when it comes to tight end, eight TEs in week 1 of the upcoming 2024 season cost $4,600 or more. You pay the most for TE in relativity to all the positions. TEs averaged 21.69 points per game. The ceiling has to be there, and we are now seeing that consistency is at a cost.

Flex On’Em In Style

The flex position has far greater value than cost and ownership. It’s in the name. This is the player you are willing to flex with. The average cost of a flex player was $5,933. That should be worded as the player with high cost in the afternoon games. Many pros do that, and it’s no different in the Milly Makers. You have that expenditure to be FLEXIBLE if your team catches fire or needs some spark to find a way to get different. Late swaps are vital for success, and you want to leave yourself as much room as possible.

Defense Is Superior To Opulence

This is the Goldilocks approach. You don’t want a DST that is too high or too low; you want one that is just right. Middle-of-the-pack spending was used, as the average was $3,233, and ownership was at 11.18%. You don’t have to get cheeky to succeed. The average DST scored 16.9 fantasy points. You don’t want to dart throw at a cheap defense, and you don’t have to play paper, rock, scissors with the top three. Ten teams had a home DST, so lean that way if it is close. You are looking for a scoring opportunity. You want playmakers vs. an active but ineffective passing offense. Teams with high sack totals also create many strip-sack chances and compare the D-line vs the O-line.

Home Away

The last bit of fun I will tell you is that the amount of home vs away players was 90-70. The home field team holds an advantage in real life, but do not fear it when it comes to DFS.