Dallas Cowboys Passing Game Breakdown
Fantasy Impact
The Dallas Cowboys have a remolded offensive unit entering the 2024 season, making a fundamental analysis of the team essential. The team lost lead back Tony Pollard, wide receiver Michael Gallup, and two starting linemen, left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz. To offset these losses, the Cowboys brought back running back Ezekiel Elliott and drafted two offensive linemen, Tyler Guyton (first round, 29th overall) and Cooper Beebe (third round, 73rd overall). Understanding these moderate yet impactful changes is crucial for assessing how they affect team dynamics, player performance, and overall strategic approach. These changes have significant implications for fantasy rosters, as shifts in key positions can alter player value and performance expectations. Analyzing these shifts provides insights into how the Cowboys’ revamped offensive line and returning veterans may shape the team’s competitive edge and season outlook.
To conduct this analysis, I used individual data such as snap share, target share, targets, carries, receptions, yards gained, and touchdowns from the 2023 season. Additionally, I reviewed the rate at which Dallas employed different personnel groupings. By delving into these metrics, we can comprehensively view each player’s role and potential in the revamped offense. I will conclude this analysis with predictions for each player, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking for value.
But before we look at Prescott’s recipients, let’s begin with the field general himself. Below, you will find Prescott’s stats for the past three seasons. In 2022, Prescott dealt with a fractured thumb and consequently had a down year. However, these numbers are remarkably stable, providing some insight into what we can expect in 2024.
| Dak Prescott | ||||||||
| Year | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | TD | Gd | YPG | TD Avg PG |
| 2023 | 410 | 590 | 4516 | 69.5 | 36 | 17 | 265.65 | 2.12 |
| 2022 | 261 | 394 | 2860 | 66.2 | 23 | 12 | 238.33 | 1.92 |
| 2021 | 410 | 596 | 4449 | 68.8 | 37 | 16 | 278 | 2.31 |
Prescott posted elite numbers in 2023, which I believe he’ll largely replicate in 2024. And remember, Gallup and Pollard are no longer with the team, leaving 124 targets up for grabs. More on that later. What I didn’t include in this chart was Prescott’s 55 rushing attempts for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023. Prescott’s current ADP (76 on DraftKings and 95 on Underdog) does not reflect these elite numbers. In fact, he is in a buy-now spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ADP increased by a baker’s dozen by mid-August.
Before I move on to the potential beneficiaries of Prescott’s efficiency in Dallas’ high-powered offense, it’s wise to review the personnel groupings that Dallas employed last year briefly.
| Dallas Cowboys Personnel Tendencies | |||||
| Personnel | Plays | Pers. Plays | Rate | Pass Rate | League Avg. Usage |
| 11 | 1090 | 670 | 61.50% | 71.30% | 62.50% |
| 12 | 1090 | 166 | 15.20% | 53.60% | 19.20% |
| 13 | 1090 | 56 | 5.10% | 35.70% | 3.20% |
| 21 | 1090 | 48 | 4.40% | 29.20% | 7.20% |
| 10 | 1090 | 46 | 4.20% | 73.90% | 0.70% |
| 22 | 1090 | 28 | 2.60% | 25% | 1.30% |
Dallas utilized 11 personnel on 61.5% of their plays in 2023 (about the same rate as in 2022), but this number may drop a couple of percentage points in 2024. On the other hand, Dallas’ usage of 12 and 13 personnel dropped 9% from 2022 to 2023. With the loss of two Pro Bowl-caliber linemen, I expect these groupings to increase in 2024 and possibly exceed the rate that Dallas employed in 2022. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Dallas increase their usage of 12 personnel to somewhere in the 23% to 30% range and use 13 personnel at about 8%. This means that Dallas will be using more two and three-tight-end sets.
Let’s look at the receiver and running back usage from 2023.
Dallas Receiving Corp
| 2023 Stats | Snap Share | Targets | Rec | YDS | TDs | DK ADP |
| CeeDee Lamb | 83.7 | 181 | 135 | 1749 | 12 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | 74.32 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 5 | 82 |
| Brandin Cooks | 68.33 | 81 | 54 | 657 | 8 | 116 |
| Michael Gallup | 51.69 | 57 | 34 | 418 | 2 | |
| Jalen Tolbert | 40.29 | 36 | 22 | 268 | 2 | 210 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 31.08 | 15 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 299 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 11.82 | 18 | 12 | 127 | 3 | 250 |
| Jalen Brooks | 6.5 | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
Running Back Corp
| 2023 Stats | Snap Share | Targets | REC | YDS | TDs | CAR | YDS | AVG | TDs | DK ADP |
| Tony Pollard | 70.61 | 67 | 55 | 311 | 0 | 252 | 1005 | 4 | 6 | |
| Ezekial Elliot | 51.28 | 65 | 51 | 313 | 2 | 184 | 642 | 3.5 | 3 | 127 |
| Rico Dowdle | 20.86 | 22 | 17 | 144 | 2 | 89 | 361 | 4.1 | 2 | 137 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 5.15 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 23 | 40 | 1.7 | 0 | 325 |
Quick Links
Call me crazy, but I think snap share is the most important stat on these charts. You are more likely to receive a Prescott pass if you are on the field. These statistics demonstrate that concept.
So, who will be the beneficiaries of this passing offense in 2024? First, I don’t think Lamb, Ferguson, or Cooks will see significant upticks in usage. However, Ferguson may see a few more targets and touchdowns. And we’ll likely see a repeat of CeeDee Lamb’s 2023 numbers. If I was drafting number three and he fell to me, I would draft him every time. If you can pair two of these players on your best ball team with Prescott, do it. Cooks is excellent value at his current ADP (127 on Underdog and 116 on DraftKings), but I prefer Ferguson (82) and Lamb (2) as my pairing options.
I think the easiest way to start with the other players is with what players will likely see an increase in snap shares. Suppose I am correct in my assumption that Dallas will employ more 12 and 13 personnel. In that case, Schoonmaker will quite possibly become the biggest beneficiary of the group. Schoonmaker is already an above-average blocker, making him an essential asset on a team with question marks on the line. If Ferguson stays healthy, I see Schoonmaker’s snap share increasing by at least 10 percentage points. We may see all his other numbers double, which makes him comparable to almost every other tight end at the end of the draft. However, Schoonmaker will become the number-one tight end on a prolific offense if Ferguson ever goes down. This alone makes him worth a late-round pick in your Draft Kings Best Ball Tournament.
The other beneficiary will likely be Jalen Tolbert. His snap share increased from 7.66% in 2022 to 40.29% in 2023. With Dallas parting ways with Gallup, Tolbert’s snap share could increase another 10 to 15 percent. Reports from training camp on Tolbert have been positive so far, and he may have the upper hand in securing the number three wide receiver slot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipsed 500 yards and four touchdowns in 2024.
The last receiver I’ll mention is a wild card. KaVontae Turpin has speed, but he’s more of a gadget player. His snap share was 12% in 2023, but he could see more usage as the man in the flats and on sweeps. At this point, I wouldn’t draft him in the best ball, but he could be a decent redraft pickup if anything happens to a receiver above him in the pecking order. Tolbert is in the best position of the last two receivers I discussed to achieve fantasy-relevant numbers. He could be in line for Cooks-like numbers if he is thrust into the number two spot.
And finally, there is Dallas’ running back by committee to discuss. Pollard’s departure to Tennessee leaves 67 backfield targets. I anticipate these running backs will likely have more check-down opportunities in this offense, benefiting those who draft in PPR formats. The true beneficiary here is Rico Dowdle, who only saw 22 targets last year, which should at least double. I also expect Dowdle to receive the lion’s share of snaps, translating into better fantasy production. However, Elliot did receive 65 targets last year playing for the Patriots. But he is a year older and a regression candidate. Both have value at their ADPs, but Dowdle, at 137, could be one of the steals of the draft.
