Dawson Knox Fantasy
Not much was expected of Dawson Know last season. He was drafted as the TE28 according to Fantasydata’s 2021 ADP behind such exciting options as Blake Jarwin and (then) part-time tight end Taysom Hill. Considering that Knox averaged a 10.5% target share and just 5.5 fantasy points per game over the first two seasons of his career, I suppose it’s understandable that he was looked at with skepticism. On the positive side of the ledger, Knox was entering his third season, typically when tight ends begin to find their way in the NFL. He was also tied to Josh Allen the reigning and defending QB1 in fantasy, so maybe we should have expected an appreciable improvement in 2021. Knox saw his fantasy scoring increase by nearly 50% in 2021 over his 2020 season, averaging 10.9 points per game on his way to a TE9 PPG finish.
What will 2022 bring for Knox? Will he continue to see his fantasy scoring improve, or should we still be skeptical of his 2022 outlook?
2021 At a Glance 2022
When just looking at Knox’s fantasy scoring increase year over year, it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that he’s simply “better” now than he was as a first-year or second-year player. Though that could be true that doesn’t necessarily make him a good fantasy asset. He did set career highs in fantasy scoring, targets, target share, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and air yards in 2021. Obviously, these are all positive indicators, and you could certainly build a narrative that there’s no reason that this ascension shouldn’t continue. Though he did see increased targets, it’s important to note that Knox was still just the fourth option in the Bills passing attack. He still saw fewer targets than Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders by percentage.
Positionally his 11.4% target share ranked just 23rd in the league, behind players such as Gerald Everett, C.J. Uzomah, Jared Cook, and Austin Hooper, among many others. His 71 targets ranked just 20th at the position, again behind such luminaries as Tyler Higbee, Tyler Conklin, and a host of other less than impressive tight ends. What Knox lacked in volume he more than made up for in efficiency, ranking first at the tight end position and scoring 2.31 fantasy points per target. That’ll happen when you score a touchdown on 18% of your receptions, as Knox did in 2021. Knox was simply elite at scoring touchdowns last season. His nine receiving touchdowns tied Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry for most touchdowns by a tight end. Further showing Knox’s reliance on scoring touchdowns for fantasy points, both Andrews and Kelce were far more involved in their offenses, with Andrews being targeted 83 more times and Kelce seeing 63 more targets than Knox. Henry was also an outlier scoring his nine touchdowns on 75 targets, and I would definitely advise you to fade him scoring that many touchdowns again on such low volume.
Knox was one of the most targeted tight ends inside the 10-yard line, with his ten targets tying Mark Andrews for the league lead, though he converted just four of those targets into touchdowns. As he was so heavily targeted within the 10-yard line, it makes sense that Knox’s 19 red-zone targets were second most at the tight end position. As I alluded to earlier, Knox’s fantasy scoring was very dependent on touchdowns last year, and in fact of the top ten tight ends in fantasy scoring (points per game), no other tight end relied on touchdowns as much as Knox to prop up their fantasy production.
Dawson Knox scored 33.3% of his fantasy points on touchdowns last year. By far the most of the top 10 fantasy (PPG) tight ends. pic.twitter.com/YcO303AbeL
— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 6, 2022
Not only was that the highest percentage for the top ten tight ends, but it was also so by a significant margin. Dalton Schultz scored the second highest percentage of fantasy points via touchdown for the top ten tight ends, and his 22.99% was a full 10% less than Knox’s. Both Schultz and Knox’s fantasy scoring was wildly out of line with the rest of the top ten PPG producers, who averaged just 16.75% of their fantasy production from touchdowns.
As you might have already deduced by the fact that Knox scored such a high percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns, he must have lacked in other stats when compared to the other top ten scoring tight ends. That is correct; Knox had the fewest targets, receptions, and receiving yards among those top ten tight ends. This paints the picture of a player that was overly reliant on one facet to accrue their fantasy points.
Fantasy Forecast
Currently, Knox is being drafted as the TE6 overall according to Fantasydata’s most recent ADP, which is widely aggressive and points to fantasy managers drafting Knox at his absolute ceiling. Remember last year he finished as the TE9.
Dawson Knox with redraft TE6 ADP seems aggressive
https://t.co/0Y133bLcPG pic.twitter.com/68OBUJ6koy— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 6, 2022
I would draft every single one of the six tight ends being drafted after Knox: Dallas Goedert, Dalton Shultz, T.J. Hockenson, Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, and Mike Gesicki; and urge you to do the same in all of your upcoming drafts. He’s being drafted as the TE10 in My Fantasy League drafts, but even that is too high in my opinion. Our projections have him pegged as the TE12 on the season, hauling in 48.5 receptions for 583.9 yards and 6.8 touchdowns, and scoring 8.7 fantasy points per game. You’ll notice that despite the reception and receiving yard totals being nearly identical to what he produced in 2021, the dip in projected touchdowns accounts for a fairly significant projected drop of 2.2 fantasy points per game from his 2021 season to the 2022 season.
There is a contrary narrative that since Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are no longer on the roster, Knox could see a significant increase in target share in 2022. I am not a believer in the “vacated target” narrative, though and believe that good players demand targets and high target shares regardless of the competition for targets. And frankly, if the shell of Emmanuel Sanders precludes you from a high target share there’s a very good chance that you’re just not that internal. Additionally, it’s not as if the Bills haven’t added offensive weapons to the offense as well. Jamison Crowder may be often injured, but when he’s on the field, he commands targets with his worst target share of 14.1% coming back in his rookie season and even commanded a 17% target share during last year’s injury-plagued season. The Bills also added the premier pass-catching back of this year’s running back class in James Cook, and Gabe Davis is expected to take on a larger role in 2022 as well. Knox needs to continue to be an elite touchdown scorer or see a significant increase in targets in order to pay off at his current ADP, and I wouldn’t bet on either occurring.
