DeAndre Hopkins Signs With the Titans
The wait is finally over. One of the biggest NFL free-agent wide receivers still on the market has found a new home with the Tennessee Titans. After it was all said and done, Hopkins will be catching passes from starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the 2023 season. News broke that Hopkins signed a two-year deal worth up to $32 million. The agreement is two years for $26 million on the surface but can get bumped up to $32 million with incentives. Reports were all over the place as to what Hopkins was looking for in a new contract after being released by the Arizona Cardinals earlier in the offseason after a trade couldn’t be reached (partly because the Cardinals thought that an NFL team was going to be dumb enough to give up a second-round for a 31-year-old receiver and more).
But what fantasy managers have on their minds is how good this landing spot is for DeAndre Hopkins’s fantasy value heading into the fantasy draft season and where he should be drafted.
DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Impact With The Titans
After all the offseason chatter from DeAndre Hopkins about wanting to play with the top-end quarterbacks in the league and wanting to “win championships,” it all essentially boiled down to what team is going to pay Hopkins what he was looking for. The Titans were always serious contenders for Hopkins, even when the New England Patriots popped up looking to add the wide receiver too.
The Titans have a lot of ground to cover regarding the passing department, and we first have to look at the Titans quarterback situation, starting with Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is coming off arguably his worst performance as a starting QB as the Titans’ passing offense was one of the worst in the league in 2022. The Titans traded the number one wide receiver AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2022 NFL Draft and all but sunk their chances of proper passing performances, ranking 30th overall in passing.
Under Tannehill in 2022, the Titans finished with the third-worst passing yards in the league and only had 16 passing touchdowns on the season. Tannehill accounted for just 13 touchdowns in 2022 with a 65.2% completion percentage over the 12 games he started. Now to be fair, without Brown on the team, the Titans had to turn to a wide receiver group that consisted of Robert Woods, rookie Treylon Burks, and fellow rookie Kyle Phillips. With all due respect, the Titans’ passing was doomed to fail from the start.
Tannehill does get an upgrade with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins on the roster now to go with Treylon Burks, who heads into his second season as a starter. The combo of Hopkins and Burks could be a positive for Tannehill this season at the very least. Hopkins himself should be able to function as a stable wide receiver piece, but his draft stock should take a hit after landing with the Titans. I know the stigma of “the Titans are a run-first team” will be on the minds of many fantasy managers debating whether to take Hopkins, but that’s not the concern to have.
Over the last three seasons, the number one wide receiver saw at minimum a 20% target share despite being in a run-first system still lead by running back Derrick Henry. That doesn’t look to change for Hopkins, who now looks to be Tennessee’s new number-one receiver. The issue, however, is the amount of targets to be seen. Over that three-season span, the number one wide receiver has over one hundred targets, but just barely. Brown saw 105 and 106 targets in 2020 and 2021 before being traded. Robert Woods led the team in targets at 94 in 2022. If this trend were to continue, there would be a limit to the amount of work even Hopkins could generate this coming season.
Hopkins currently sits as the WR20 coming according to Fantasydata’s ADP chart putting him as a WR2 option in 12 team formats. Hopkins would usually hold WR1 fantasy value as he did over the last few years with the Cardinals but with down-grades at quarterback, offensive scheme, and even passing attempts, Hopkins may have gotten his bag but fantasy production could be capped. While he was with the Titans, AJ Brown finished as the WR14 in 2020 and WR32 in 2021. Health will factor in as well as Hopkins missed the final four games of the 2022 regular season with a knee injury after missing the first six games because of a suspension.
The Fantasy Wrap Up
Hopkins is no spring chicken, but he’s still better than the Titans’ established talent. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect the Hopkins of old to appear this season. While I still believe he has the talent, the offense doesn’t generate the kind of volume and scoring opportunity that Hopkins would need to be a top-tier fantasy option this season. The Titans’ offense averaged 17.5 points per game in 2022 ranking them the fifth-worst scoring offense in the league for 2022. The addition of Hopkins and Derrick Henry staying healthy should be able to change that but to expect a tremendous output out of an offense and team that was looking to replace Ryan Tannehill the last two seasons could be high hopes. Also looming is the potential for Tannehill to finally flame out. Should that happen, Malik Willis, the 2022 drafted quarterback, or new rookie quarterback Will Levis could take over this season. If that happens, that could sink Hopkins’s fantasy value even further.
“Name Value” may still have fantasy managers reaching out to get Hopkins on their team because of the potential volume but based on the evidence so far, that could be a detriment. That may be a safer bet if you want to add Hopkins at his WR2 value. Don’t overreach for Hopkins in your fantasy drafts. That could come back to bite you.
