De’Von Achane Fantasy Preview
There are three fundamental types of explosive devices: mechanical, nuclear, and chemical. The 2023 Miami Dolphins’ offense used all three last season. Mechanical explosives depend on a physical reaction. QB Tua Tagovailoa was under immense pressure and blew up, taking the mantle of the NFL’s passing leader. Nuclear explosives are reactions that release large amounts of energy. RB De’Von Achane went unquestionably nuclear last season, and so did his ADP. The final explosion is chemical and usually leaves an undesirable aftermath. That unwanted residue is Raheem Mostert, who finished the season as the 10th-best RB, and is a stain that will not easily wash away.
Achane’s numbers are not something to breeze over. 800 rush yards and delivered an NFL record of 7.8 yards per carry. HC Mike McDaniel also noted that Tyreek Hill’s average per childbirth number of yards is 800. Hill also finished with the most receiving yards in the NFL and tied WR Mike Evans for the most receiving TDs. The Fins had a lot of explosive plays, and Achane was at the epicenter early in the season. His longest rush was for 76 yards, had 8 rushes for over 20+ yards, and 5 over 40+ yards. To give perspective, LaDainian Tomlinson’s historic 2006 season had 12 rushes over 20+ yards and 7 for 40+. He played for five more seasons and never came close to duplicating that success again. It is challenging to replicate success in the NFL. Achane’s injury last season opened the floodgates for fantasy points to splash around the team. When looking at his rush totals in the nine games where he had more than five carries, he only eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times. Mostert is going to cannibalize overall carries and attempts inside the red zone.
I am cooling the Achane pie off before I eat it this year. I have mentioned many names, but we have not dug into Jaylen Waddle. With this plethora of talent, I recommend taking Achane down just a smidge. It’s not a doubt of his talent; it’s the existential threat of all the pieces on the board. His mid 2.5 ADP is too big of a bite when you still have access to lead backs like Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams. The flip side is this is where we are at the end of the road for WR1s.
From a PPR perspective, this is where light can shine to keep trust in Achane’s available upside. In his 10 games played, he averaged 3.6 targets, and Mike McDaniel has already expressed interest in finding ways to get him the ball. This offseason, Achane practiced his route-running and spent time with the WRs. One thing to note is the hyper-efficiency of the passing attack displayed last season. Despite Tua leading the league, they were 20th in passing attempts and 10th in incompletions. Becoming a dual threat will offer the best upside, getting him in open spaces and allowing him to kill opposing defenses with his speed.
Mostert Is Not Going Away
It’s hard to believe, but Raheem Mostert had 1,012 yards and 19 total touchdowns last season. Yes, the seasoned veteran is 32 years old, but it’s naive to think he won’t still be around. In March, Mostert signed a one-year contract extension. 2024 was originally the last year of his deal, but the new contract extends his deal into the 2025 campaign. This move indicates that he will still be a part of the offense this season, regardless of age.
In 2023, the Dolphins had the most total yards, and the last time a team went back-to-back in that category was the Saints in 2008/2009. 2008, they put up 4,977 passing and 1,594 rushing yards. The following season, they regressed on the passing yards down to 4,355, and rushing went up to 2,106 yards. In 2008, the three-headed backfield was composed of Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister, and Reggie Bush. In 2009, Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush pieced a better season together. Even teams with the best rushing season ever had multiple players to do it. The record for the most rushing yards in a single season was the 2019 Ravens. Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill, those RBs conglomerated, produced 1,954 yards. QB Lamar Jackson filled the gap with 1,206 yards. If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. That is the message for Achane and this Dolphins team. Do not be afraid. Do not overreach.
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