DFS Cash Game Plays: Conference Championships
The NFL Conference Championship DFS slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With 20 weeks of data under our belts and just eight teams playing, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity. A two-game slate makes finding the right plays all the more necessary.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in the Divisional Round:
What could I have done better? Probably start Baker Mayfield and a high-volume passing attack plus any other defense besides Buffalo. Considering the game Patrick Mahomes had and the 27 points put up by Kansas City, I feel like it was a low-percentage outcome for Rashee Rice to only have 8.7 fantasy points.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 18.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (DK: $7,700, FD: $8,800) just torched the Texans for four touchdowns in his last game which means he has accounted for 11 scores in his last three games played. Because of the short slate, the future MVP’s salary dropped $200 on DraftKings. Jackson is playing on another level right now, and no team has had an answer for his rushing ability since Arizona held him to 17 rushing yards in Week 8.
Jared Goff (DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200) is the cheap QB option this week, but Jordan Love just showed that the 49ers can be passed on and as a steep underdog in this game, Goff could be throwing a lot. He has at least 270 passing yards in four straight games and was asked to pass 43 times in a game the Lions won by eight points last week. If San Francisco gets up multiple scores in this game, Goff could drop back 45+ times.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9,000, FD: $11,000) remains criminally undervalued on DK for the playoff slates, and we just saw his 20-touch, 125-yard, two-touchdown upside in full effect against Green Bay. With Brock Purdy a wild ride of a quarterback, I expect the 49ers to heavily lean on their best player to ensure their offense stays on the field and secures San Francisco a trip to the Super Bowl. Detroit may be tough, but we know CMC is matchup-proof at this point.
Isiah Pacheco (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,800) is battling a toe and ankle injury, but indications are he will be ready to go for the AFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon. Pacheco has scored in every game since Week 12 and he has three straight weeks with at least 16 touches. Baltimore is stout against the run, but Pacheco got double the number of red zone touches than any other Chiefs player last weekend and will get the ball when Kansas City is close to the end zone.
Justice Hill (DK: $4,800, FD: $5,500) was heavily involved in the big win over Houston last weekend, and it wasn’t all in blowout time either. Hill touched the ball 15 times event with the success that Jackson and Gus Edwards had on the ground. Baltimore wants to run and run some more so they can keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands and Hill could be the much-needed salary relief at the position.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $7,900, FD: $9,000) now has at least 21 fantasy points in five straight games, and his salary dropped on DK by $300. He is, simply put, the most reliable wide receiver left in the playoffs, and is coming off at least nine targets in four of his last five games including 14 against Tampa Bay in the Divisional round. At a salary below $8,000 on DK, he is a must for lineups this Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $6,900, FD: $7,800) will be a smash play (and extremely popular) if Deebo Samuel does not play due to injury on Sunday. Samuel returned to a limited practice on Thursday, so this is something to monitor. Aiyuk has at least five targets in six of the last seven games and would immediately be elevated to WR1 on this team if his wide receiver partner were to miss. The Lions allowed the third-most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so Aiyuk might be in play regardless of any injury news.
Rashee Rice (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,100) only got four targets in the Divisional round against Buffalo and that was the first time since Week 11 he didn’t have at least six. But he is still the preferred wide receiver weapon for a Patrick Mahomes offense that will have to do a lot to keep pace with the Baltimore offense this week. He is a solid floor play that checks in at $300 cheaper on DK than he did last week.
Jauan Jennings (DK: $4,600, FD: $5,300) is the cheap cash-game wide receiver you will need if Deebo Samuel does miss this game. If Samuel does play, you can pivot to even cheaper options like Nelson Agholor or Jameson Williams. Jennings’ usage would be more secure is Samuel is out, as he saw six targets against Green Bay as a fill-in. With all of the attention on McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and George Kittle, Jennings could easily pay off this salary if he is thrust into the starter’s role.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (DK: $6,600, FD: $7,200) gave one of his elite playoff-winning performances last week with 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns. That’s now back-to-back weeks with at least seven targets, five receptions, and 70 yards, something he had not done since Weeks 6 and 7 in the regular season. We learned last week that when Patrick Mahomes is an underdog on the road, he looks for his security blanket, and that means another big Kelce game could be on the way.
George Kittle (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600) is a great play at this salary whether Deebo Samuel plays or not. Kittle had his second game in three tries with at least seven targets and 80 receiving yards against the Packers last week, and he pulled down a massive touchdown from Brock Purdy. The Lions allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to the tight end position in 2023.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens DST (DK: $3,200, FD: $4,200) held the mighty C.J. Stroud to three offensive points last week and they look like the team most capable of generating sacks, stopping the run, and forcing turnovers from their opponent. At home with a crazy crowd at their back, taking advantage of these cheap DST salaries in this round should be easy.
Detroit Lions DST (DK: $2,600, FD: $3,300) needs Brock Purdy to turn back into a pumpkin for one game, just like the Packers almost got last week. Detroit is a stout run defense that is at least going to make things tough on McCaffrey, and if that forces the 49ers to have to ask Brock Purdy to beat them through the air, it could lead to a big day for the Lions’ defense. On slates like this where value is scarce and the margin is thin between defenses, I don’t mind dropping all the way down to the cheapest.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.
