DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 15
The NFL Week 15 DFS slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With fourteen weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results in select DraftKings contests:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1246/4597
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2301/9195
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1159/4597
- NFL GIANT $2 Double Up [Single Entry] – 436/1724
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1078/4254
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 917/4022
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1520/5747
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 100%
Cash line in DraftKings Massive $25 Double-Up contest – 146.62
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 14:
A massive piece of news changed the entire complexion of my lineup on Saturday night. Originally, this lineup had Keenan Allen, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the Cleveland DST. It did not have Alvin Kamara, Drake London, or the Jets DST. Allen, CEH, and Cleveland all ended up being mild to massive chalk anyway, but I wonder what they would have been at if Taysom Hill had not been ruled out on Saturday.
That news moved many people onto Kamara, allowed teams to get off of CEH (who was always a shaky play), and opened up the $400 needed for Drake London in a smash spot. BUT ONLY IF you were willing to get off of the Cleveland defense. Cleveland was $3,000 in this spot, but the lineup above only had $2,900 available. Did I care about moving down from Cleveland to the Jets especially when the Texans are pass-heavy and were playing in a monsoon? Of course not. Cleveland ended up being 50% chalk in the Massive $25 Double-Up, but we should never be so beholden to a chalk defense that it doesn’t allow us to play the other best plays. Defenses are extremely volatile and the Browns and Jets ended up with the same number of points.
And let’s face it, Kamara and London were clearly a better tandem than Allen and CEH.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 15.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (DK: $6,800, FD: $8,400) will someday have a bad fantasy game, but it doesn’t look like Week 15 is going to be the one. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season and over 10 yards per completion to opponents this season. The 49ers have the highest implied team total by almost two points this week and we have seen from the last two games that even when Christian McCaffrey gets his work, Purdy still puts up massive games.
Jordan Love (DK: $6,200, FD: $8,000) took a minor step back against the Giants in New York on Monday Night Football, but he still threw the ball 39 times. He turned the ball over twice which is unlikely to happen again and now faces the Buccaneers who give up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including the fourth-highest yards per completion of all NFL teams.
Matthew Stafford (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,200) is on a roll the last three weeks that rivals his best days in Detroit or at any point in his career. The Rams averaged 34 points per game the last three weeks on the back of Stafford who averaged 37 pass attempts and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game in that span. With Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all healthy Stafford looks like an exceptional option against the Commanders who have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9,300, FD: $10,500) is going to be hard to fit on both DK and FD this week unless a lot of unexpected value opens up, but this is definitely to matchup in which to play CMC. You may recall McCaffrey had four total touchdowns when these two teams last met, and while we don’t need that kind of production, we know his touchdown opportunity is among the highest in the league. The Cardinals have given up top-five numbers in both rushing touchdowns and receiving touchdowns to running backs.
Kyren Williams (DK: $7,500, FD: $9,600) has a workload lately that is almost as elite as Christian McCaffrey. He has played on 90%+ of the snaps in back-to-back weeks and tied his career high on Sunday with 28 touches. That’s three straight games with at least 22 touches and now he gets Washington who gives up over 4.4 yards per carry on the season and the second-most receiving touchdowns to running backs.
Tony Pollard (DK: $6,700, FD: $7,000) has four straight weeks of top-16 finishes in PPR formats, so he has turned the corner, particularly from a touchdown regression standpoint. He has three scores in the last four games after none from Weeks 2-10. Buffalo has a reputation of a stout defense up front, but they allow the third-most rushing yards per attempt this season (4.7 yards), and they allow the fourth-most receptions to the running back position.
Ezekiel Elliott (DK: $5,800, FD: $6,500) didn’t feel great to start against Pittsburgh last week, and he still isn’t the most appealing option, but a running back who has 20-touch upside needs to be in our cash player pool. Elliott had a crazy 29 touches for more than 140 yards and a score last week. Now he gets a tough Kansas City rush defense, but he can overcome those matchup problems purely by volume at this salary.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb (DK: $9,200, $FD: $9,200) probably can’t be in the same lineup with Tony Pollard, but with the Cowboys putting up 30+ points regularly, why not get them both on the squad? The Cowboys are projected to score 24 points against Buffalo, so they will be moving the ball in this one. He has at least 17 fantasy points in eight straight games and seven touchdowns in the last seven games. On FanDuel, his $9,200 salary seems too cheap for the massive usage he will have, but he is also the primary spend-up on DK with Tyreek Hill battling injury.
Deebo Samuel (DK: $7,700, $8,400) has seen his salary rise $2,100 in four weeks on DraftKings as he keeps putting up massive fantasy days. He has 22, 37, and 38 fantasy points in the last three weeks and now faces the Cardinals who give up explosive plays like they are water in the Arizona desert. The salary could be prohibitive on DK if you want two other studs, but Samuel is playing better than almost anyone right now, and should continue to be a focal point for Brock Purdy.
Rashee Rice (DK: $6,100, FD: $6,500) has 29 targets over the last three games for the Kansas City Chiefs. The other seven wide receivers on the roster have a total of 28 in that span. Patrick Mahomes has keyed in on Rice lately, and he has become his primary weapon in the air, particularly in the Red Zone. Rice has seven Red Zone targets in the last three weeks and no other wide receiver has more than one.
Wan’Dale Robinson (DK: $3,700, FD: $5,300) is not a sexy name to roster in DFS, but he is getting 5-7 targets a week now from a suddenly competent Tommy DeVito and has at least four receptions in three of his last five games. Robinson and maybe someone like Demario Douglas represent our best pure punt options on the slate this week, and he will help you get two studs in your lineup.
Tight End
Trey McBride (DK: $5,200, FD: $6,600) is back in our lives with an elite usage rate since Zach Ertz was sent out of town. McBride has a 27% target share over the last three weeks and is now up to sixth among all tight ends in total targets for 2023 despite seven total targets through his first four games. san Francisco is a tough matchup, but the Cardinals should be trailing all game, leading to a pass-heavy approach.
Logan Thomas (DK: $3,700, FD: $5,100) has one of the best possible matchups of the week against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have allowed the most touchdowns (7) and the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to the tight end position (14.8). Thomas had only one target in his last game but averaged close to six in the four contests before that one.
Chig Okonkwo (DK: $2,900, FD: $5,000) may have an even better matchup than Logan Thomas and has less team competition and a lower salary this week. He will likely be my DK cash game tight end against a Houston defense that has given up the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to the position this year.
Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons DST (DK: $3,600, FD: $4,500) wins the lottery this week for the team playing Bryce Young now that they have told him to just chuck the ball downfield. Last week against New Orleans, the short-throw Bryce Young disappeared and he started heaving it downfield, offering up four sacks, two fumbles, and just six points to the Saints defense. I don’t think they will be chalkier than the Rams, but they have the opportunity for the most sacks + turnovers.
Los Angeles Rams DST (DK: $3,100, FD: $4,300) faces Sam Howell and the Commanders, the team with the worst offensive line protection in the league. Howell has 58 sacks taken this year, 10 more than any other quarterback entering Week 15. Aaron Donald and crew should be able to manufacture some serious pressure as touchdown favorites against the Commanders.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.