Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Before you take in this article’s insights to enhance your fantasy golf picks for the 2020 Safeway Open, I recommend that you check out FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to elevate your daily fantasy lineups. All the best this week!
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Tournament purse: The purse is set at “only” $6.6M for this year’s tournament with the winner getting $1.188M in prize money and earning himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Since 2014, this event has been played at the Silverado Resort (North Course) in Napa, CA – the track is short in length at just 7,166 yards, is a par 72, and the greens are poa annua. Some of the key stats to pay attention to this week are Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Bogeys Avoided, and Strokes Gained: Par 5s.
The field: We have a full field event this week with 156 players set to compete at the Safeway Open. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C- with the vast majority of the world’s best players taking a breather to gear up for next week’s U.S. Open Championship. The top 65 plus ties after round two will get to play the weekend in rounds three and four, on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Notable storylines: Graham DeLaet returns this week for the first time since January, and here’s to hoping his ailing back holds up better this season so the Canadian can play a full, healthy campaign. Brendan Steele can become the only three-time winner of the event if he can seal the deal this week. Once again no fans will be in attendance this week so it will be quiet out on the course again during ongoing global pandemic play.
Betting strategy this week: With the larger field size this week and with a cut line to worry about on Friday, I would recommend trying to get as many 5 and 6 player lineups into the weekend as possible to maximize fantasy point totals. For that reason, a balanced lineup approach is recommended but if you are playing several lineups then don’t be shy to deploy a “stars” and scrubs strategy for high risk/high reward outcomes. Note that I put “stars” in quotation since there aren’t many stars, if any, to choose from this week.
Best of luck for securing some contest wins this week – here are my 15 picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well.
The $10K+ Range
Si Woo Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K, FanDuel – $11.7K) – Kim went on a good run to conclude last season with 8 straight made cuts in a row, half of them were top 20’s and one was a T3. Kim was T49 last season at the Safeway Open, and five years ago he missed the cut but you can expect the highest priced golfer on DK to have a good week – likely a top 15.
Brendan Steele (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – Steele loves this venue, the evidence comes with him winning in both 2016 and 2017. He made his final 7 cuts to end the 19-20 campaign, had 3 top 10’s last season, and only missed 6 cuts in 20 starts. He was T60 last season, T53 in 2018, he won the next two years, and in 2015 he was T17, so he’s clearly a safe bet for this week with high upside to win for his third time.
Phil Mickelson (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K, FanDuel – $11) – Mickelson was certainly nothing special in his last full season on the PGA Tour, but he did win in his first Champions Tour start a couple of weeks ago so he’s riding high coming into this week. He did finish runner up at the last WGC event too so he has been half decent over the past month or so. He was a cut here last year, T17 in 2018, 2017 saw him place T3, and he locked up T8 in 2016.
The $9K Range
Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K, FanDuel – $11.2K) – Grillo won this tournament in 2015 (when it was named the Frys.com Open) in a playoff over Kevin Na. He was cut here a year ago, T41 in 2018, T28 three years ago, and in 2016 he was T26. Grillo had three top 10’s last season and two of those came in his final four starts. He likely won’t win again this year but I like him for a top 30 finish come Sunday.
Joel Dahmen (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K, FanDuel – $11.0K) – Dahmen had 5 top 10’s last season which is more than any other golfer in the Safeway Open field this year, and in three of his last four starts he had top 20’s. He failed to make the cut here last year, was T46 in 2018, and cut in 2017 when he made his first start at the tournament. I can see Dahmen challenging to win this week despite his less than stellar record on this track – he’s coming off his best season on the PGA Tour and will be hungry to better it this time around.
Doc Redman (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K, FanDuel – $10.8K) – Redman made almost 71% of his cuts last season and although he only had one top 10 on the campaign, he had 5 top 30’s in his last 8 starts – one of which was a T3. He has only played this event once, that came last year when he missed the cut but he matured a ton as the season wore on and I see another top 30 in store for Doc this week.
The $8K Range
Cameron Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K, FanDuel – $10.3K) – Davis finished no worse than T32 in his final four events last season and did have 3 top 10’s from start to finish. He was a cut here last year but had a 68 in round two after a terrible 76 in round one, and he had a T17 in 2018 in his first appearance at the tourney. I think the top 32 streak stretches to five events for this long bomber and he offers decent upside to finish top 10 in an inferior caliber field.
Mark Hubbard (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K, FanDuel – $9.7K) – Hubbard had 3 top 10’s last season and only missed a handful of cuts in 24 starts – just one of those came in his last 10 starts so he was playing very consistently to polish off the campaign. He missed the cut here in 2016 but locked down a T13 here a year ago and I see a similar result again for Mark this week.
Tyler Duncan (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K, FanDuel – $9.7K) – Duncan only missed one cut in his final 10 tournaments and had one top 10 last season. He was T56 here last year, T69 two years ago, and had a T5 in his rookie season in 2017. I like Duncan to have a solid finish this week and think he’s a pretty decent value at his salary numbers.
The $7K Range
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K, FanDuel – $9.3K) – McCarthy finished last season strong with 6 straight made cuts to finish off his campaign and many of those events had strong fields. He has yet to make the cut at this event in his previous two starts here, but his game is better than ever and I see a very respectable finish coming his way in a few days from now.
Wesley Bryan (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K, FanDuel – $8.6K) – Bryan only made four starts last season but made the most of them as he made all four cuts and his worst finish over the final three was a T31. He missed the cut at this event two years ago, but finished T55 here in 2017, and I see his best finish yet coming at the Safeway Open this year.
Kristoffer Ventura (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K, FanDuel – $8.9K) – Ventura played some excellent golf late last season with 4 top 40’s over his final 5 starts, three of them were T19 to T21. A T62 was his reality here in 2019 in his first start at the event – I’ll eat my cat’s canned food if he finishes any worse than that this week.
The $6K Range
Adam Schenk (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel -$8.6K) – Schenk really caught the attention of fantasy golf players late last season as he had 6 consecutive made cuts to end off his campaign and his worst finish was T51. He didn’t see round 3 or 4 last year but finished T14 here two years ago in his second appearance at the Safeway Open.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.3K) – Lee only missed one cut in his final 6 events and his best finish was in his very last start at THE NORTHERN TRUST where he finished T29. Lee has competed at this event the last two years and missed the cut, but I think his third time is a charm and he will do decent this week and make the cut.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – I may sound like a broken record but Power only missed one cut in his last 6 tournaments and all of those were top 40’s. He is 0 for 3 at the Safeway Open but I do believe he will end that bad missed cut streak and finish top 40 to pick up right where he left off from last season.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Tour Championship
The $10K+ Range
- Dustin Johnson – Won the tournament
- Jon Rahm – 4th
- Webb Simpson – T12
The $9K Range
- Daniel Berger – T15
- Hideki Matsuyama – T15
- Rory McIlroy – T8
The $8K Range
- Tony Finau – 17th
- Xander Schauffele – T2
- Harris English – T12
The $7K Range
- Scottie Scheffler – 5th
- Brendon Todd – T20
- Tyrrell Hatton – 7th
The $6K Range
- Kevin Kisner – 23rd
- MacKenzie Hughes – 14th
- Joaquin Niemann – T27
