Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Digest the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open
Recap from the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland was looking to defend his PGA Tour championship in style last week, and boy oh boy did he ever accomplish that lofty goal with a four-shot victory at -23 – huge congrats to him on his third PGA Tour win of his career. If you backed off on taking Carlos Ortiz due to injury concerns like I did, then you are likely singing the blues also, since he finished runner-up to Hovland with a score of -19.
Preview for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open: This tournament has been a long-standing one of the PGA Tour’s – 75 years, in fact, but this will be just the second year that it has been played on the Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course. There have been several courses used for the Houston Open over its long storied history dating back to 1946 – Carlos Ortiz will look to defend his title from 2020 and become the only PGA Tour winner on this track. Curtis Strange and Vijay Singh have each won this tournament three times, while Stuart Appleby, Bruce Crampton, Bobby Nichols, Mike Souchak, Jack Burke Jr., Cary Middlecoff, and some guy named Arnold Palmer have all won this event twice in their careers. We have another good-sized field on tap this week, and we will see the typical cut line come into effect at the conclusion of round 2 on Friday. This marks the first year that HP Enterprise is the title sponsor for this event – taking over from Vivint last year and previously Shell was the main sponsor from 1992 through 2017. Winners of the Houston Open over the past five years include the aforementioned Carlos Ortiz in 2020, Lanto Griffin in 2019, Ian Poulter in 2018, Russell Henley in 2017, and Jim Herman in 2016.
Get in the money with more frequency in your PGA DFS contests by utilizing insightful player projections.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $7.5M, the winner collects $1.35M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course is a respectable length at 7,432 yards, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The winning score range over the last ten years at this event is -13 to -20 – keep in mind though that this course was only used once and that came last year when Ortiz shot a -13, so scoring here appears to be more challenging than the average PGA Tour course. The best tournament score to date at the Houston Open came in 2002 when Vijay Singh shot a -22 – he then went on to win two more times over the next three years in 2004 and 2005. We only have one year of data to rely on for key stats but they include strokes gained: putting, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: total, and strokes gained: off the tee.
The field: We again have 132 players in action this week in Houston, and the top 65 players plus ties will have the honor of playing the weekend rounds on Saturday and Sunday. We have a fairly comparable field to last week’s in Mexico featuring Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, defending champ Carlos Ortiz, and other solid golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open this week:
1. Will we see another first-time PGA Tour winner? Carlos Ortiz got his first PGA Tour victory here a year ago, and it seems possible that we will see that again with several talented players including Scottie Scheffler, Harold Varner III, Mito Pereira, Talor Gooch, and other comparable golfers in the field. This is a relatively new course and I don’t see any one player that has a leg up on the rest of the field, so we very well could see a player breakthrough here this week.
2. Wind on my parade? According to the current forecast for Houston this week, we could see wind play a factor with wind gusts reaching 15 to 22 miles per hour and those can pick up in a hurry in Texas. It’s hard to know which players perform best in the wind even after looking at data from windy tournaments as there are so many variables, so be sure to look at tee times on Wednesday to decide which wave appears to be ideal for players in order to minimize wind exposure as much as possible.
3. Go heavy on putting machines this week? According to the data, putting was the most important key stat last year and that could continue this year too. FYI, the top five putters over the last 24 rounds include Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Dawie van der Walt (but he only has 14 measured rounds), Adam Schenk, Mackenzie Hughes, and Hank Lebioda.
Lineup construction strategy this week: With a big field and a cut line, cut-making equity has to come into play this week as the goal is to always get 6/6 into weekend play. I’m likely heading towards hybrid lineups for my core plays this week, but it’s hard to resist some stars and scrub lineups too where you can start with Sam Burns and Sungjae Im, for example. Take a look at projected player ownership on Wednesday and pivot where you can to keep your total projected ownership down. Leaving at least $300 to $500 on the table for large GPPs is a smart idea to help give your lineups originality, and provide you with the opportunity to potentially win huge prize money.
All the best in your quest to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – Burns has been playing excellent golf since late April if you count his T4 at the Zurich Classic, he then went on to win the Valspar Championship the following week, he won three starts ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship, had a 2nd at the Byron Nelson, and all in all has six top 8’s in his last thirteen starts and another four top 21’s mixed in for good measure. His ball-striking and short game have both been excellent for the last 7 months or so, and him being the most expensive player on the slate this week is well deserved. He also had a solid T7 here last year thanks to gaining almost 11 strokes ball-striking, and I expect something similar again this week with the potential to win for the third time in his last fourteen tournaments played. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T7 and 2019 – Cut.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – He’s on a pretty nice run right now with three top 9’s in his last five starts including winning the Shriners Children’s Open and finishing 3rd at the BMW Championship. He’s balanced throughout his bag and has gained over 13.5 strokes around the greens in his last three starts which basically makes him look like a wedge wizard. He finished top 50 here last year in his first look at this event, and I expect much better this year since he’s accurate off the tee and has a strong short game. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T50.
Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – A lot of DFS users weren’t quite sure what to do with Wolff last week as he was coming off a runner-up finish at the Shriners Children’s Open and had a T17 prior at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but he went through a tough spell which included mental health issues. Perhaps our question marks aren’t quite as predominant this week since he finished T5 last week in Mexico, but we can’t see how he got it done since there was no shot tracking lasers south of the border. He looks like a decent play this week with two straight top 5’s – the only big potential red flag being that he’s now a $10K player, so it’s up to you if you want to pay the piper for him or not. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $9K Range
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – I can see Gooch being a top three owned player this week in DFS since he has been spectacular so far this season with a T4, a T5, and two T11’s, and his approach and short game have both been splendid. He also has back-to-back top 4’s at this tournament as well in 2020 and in 2019, so everything checks out extremely well for Gooch’s prospects this week. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – 4th, 2019 – T4, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – Cut.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Wise will be another player that garners a lot of attention and ownership this week in DFS as he had a T5 two starts ago, a T8 three starts ago, is coming off a T15 last week – plus he has finished no worse than T26 so far this season in four starts. Add to it that he has a solid record at this tournament including a T11 a year ago, and his stats are very sound too across the board. He has played weekend golf in thirteen of his last fourteen starts, so he’s a safe-looking investment as well. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T11, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T32.
Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – I swapped him out of my core lineups late last week before lineup lock because I was concerned with the shoulder injury that forced him to withdraw from the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, but that was a big mistake as he finished solo 2nd and gained 11.08 strokes total. This week marks his first-ever title defense on the PGA Tour as he won here last year via a ridiculous short game where he gained 11.79 strokes, and he finished T4 in 2019 when he gained 9.05 strokes between his putting and around the green play. It looks like the stars are aligning quite well for the talented Mexican to excel again this week, the only thing I wonder about is how he will handle being last year’s winner and having to deal with the added pressure of that reality and extra media attention, as well. He could do what Hovland did last week and go back-to-back, and that would be a steal of a deal at just over $9K in terms of his salary number. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Won and 2019 – T4.
The $8K Range
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – I like that Henley is a former winner at this tournament and between 2014 and 2018 he finished no worse than T8, albeit not at Memorial Park, but he did finish T29 here last year thanks to gaining 4.12 in ball-striking. He has six top 25’s over his last ten starts including a T7 at the Wyndham Championship and a T13 at the U.S. Open, and he has only missed one cut line in his last ten events played. I love me some strong approach players and Henley is one of the best in the field, in fact, he is 2nd to only Mito Pereira over the last 24 rounds and also ranks 2nd in driving accuracy. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T29, 2019 – T61, 2018 – T8, 2017 – T8, and 2016 – Won.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – McNealy just keeps impressing us all week in and week out – he’s coming off a T11 last week in Mexico, had a runner-up five starts ago at the Fortinet Championship, and has ten top 30’s over his last thirteen starts. Factor in that he has two top 20’s at this tournament over the last two years, and he looks like a good bet to have another this week also. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T20 and 2019 – T17.
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – The 2019 Houston Open winner has been solid over his last two starts with a T6 at the Shriners Children’s Open and he’s coming off a T7 in Japan at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. If he can clean up his messy off the tee play then he could expect more top 10’s since the rest of his game is fairly well balanced. I can understand if you have some reservations about Griffin this week, but he could keep his hot streak going and he’s the second least expensive player in the $8K range, so a top 10 finish would be very valuable in your DFS contests. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T58, 2019 – Won, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Mackenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He went through some tough times from early May to early June, but he has been just fine since then with eleven straight paychecks cashed including a T4 in his most recent start at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, he had a 6th at The Open Championship, and a T15 at the U.S. Open during that same stretch. If putting is the most important key stat this week then I’ll gladly roster Hughes since he’s tied for 4th in that category over the last 24 rounds including gaining 15.91 over his last four starts that had shot tracker on site, and that doesn’t include a T4 in Japan, so it’s likely around 20 over his last five starts. He finished T7 here last year and gained 7.13 on the greens, so this course is very well suited to his stellar flat stick and short game. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T7, 2019 – T55, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T23.
Chad Ramey (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – I’m not overly thrilled about the $7K range this week, but Ramey is a player that has been playing well with two top 17’s over his last two starts including a T14 at the Shriners Children’s Open where he gained 6.82 strokes in ball-striking. His resume is very short on the PGA Tour with just six starts so far, but he has made four cut lines in his last five starts, and he had a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in late June. I would have liked to see his salary number a bit lower, but regardless, he still looks like a decent value play this week. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Henrik Norlander (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – I like players with upside in the scrubs range, and Norlander has two top 5’s in his last seven starts, so he certainly has some appeal. He has only missed one cut in his last eleven starts, and can really pop with his approach play including gaining 8.39 strokes at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he finished T4 just four starts ago. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T45.
The $6K Range
Sepp Straka (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – Straka is starting to turn his season around with three straight cuts made including a T33 last week, and he finished top 5 here last year thanks to gaining 7.29 strokes in approach and 6.19 on the greens. He comes with risk of course, but also offers upside – he also finished T4 at this event two years ago, so he seems to thrive in Houston. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T5 and 2019 – T4.
Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – He’s starting to find some consistency once again after a pile of missed cuts since February – he has three top 29’s in his last four starts including a T22 last week in Mexico. He had a T11 here last year where he gained strokes across all major stat categories except for a small loss off the tee, and he could propel your stars and scrubs and hybrid lineups to great heights this week. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T11.
James Hahn (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – He had a T5 at the Barbasol Championship in mid-July, then things went sour over the next five starts where he had three missed cuts, but he’s getting his golf game back on track now with two top 27’s in as many starts including a T15 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP two weeks ago. Hahn has top 50’s in four straight Houston Opens, and I think he will keep that streak alive this week. If you’re looking for a cheap player who can score fantasy points for your lineups in all four rounds, then take a deep dive into him and see if you can pull the trigger on his services. Houston Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T50, 2019 – T23, 2018 – T32, 2017 – T32, and 2016 – Cut.
