Diontae Johnson Fantasy 2024
NFL teams make a few exciting moves that significantly impact the fantasy football landscape each offseason. One of those moves this offseason was the trade of WR Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Carolina Panthers. Johnson made a name for himself as a possession receiver with the Steelers. But his lack of touchdowns caused him to struggle as a fantasy player. In his five NFL seasons, he has had 391 receptions and only 25 touchdowns. He even had an 86-catch 2022 season where he recorded zero touchdowns. What makes Johnson effective is his ability to get open. He has had no problem creating separation throughout his career, allowing him to be a reliable target. According to Fantasy Data, Johnson has a current ADP of WR41 in PPR leagues. Here are a few reasons why that is too low for the former Pro Bowler.
The Panthers will have a new-look offense in 2024 with the addition of head coach Dave Canales. Last season was the only time Canales was an offensive coordinator in the NFL, helping to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs and give Baker Mayfield the most productive season of his career. The Bucs were 19th in pass attempts per game and had two wide receivers with over 1,000 yards. Canales should help get the best out of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. He had a rough rookie season but has the traits to be a quality NFL passer.
One thing all young quarterbacks love is a receiver that can quickly get open. Johnson is one of the best in football at getting open. According to ESPN analytics, Johnson was the 12th-best receiver in football at open rating. But Johnson was tied for first over the past three seasons with a 99 open rating. Last season, Young was 35th in the NFL in yards per attempt with 5.5, which shows he is comfortable throwing short routes, where Johnson will feast. Johnson can lead the league in receptions, catching passes from Young.
Diontae Johnson continues his DOMINANT camp for the Panthers
pic.twitter.com/PJC7boShlh— High Point Sports (@HPointSports) August 3, 2024
Last season, Johnson was a part of one of the worst offenses in football in Pittsburgh. They attempted 30.3 pass attempts per game, the 27th in the NFL. That led to Johnson getting an average of 6.2 targets per game. The Panthers were an abysmal offense in 2023, but WR Adam Thielen still returned value in fantasy football. He caught 103 passes for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns on 137 targets. Thielen is nowhere near the player Johnson is, and Young should be much improved in year two. Also, it helps that Johnson has experience both outside and in the slot. According to Rotowire, he had 341 snaps on the outside and 237 in the slot last season. The Panthers would be wise to move him around the offense to create mismatches. Everything points to Johnson being heavily involved in the offense and seeing around 8-10 targets per game. That reason alone is why his ADP of WR41 is too low; the opportunity to succeed is present, and that is half the battle.
Another reason Johnson should be successful in Carolina is that the Panthers will likely lose plenty. The Panthers are still rebuilding their roster and are not ready to compete for the playoffs in 2024. They will likely be trailing in many games, and the script will dictate that the Panthers pass the ball plenty. Garbage-time fantasy points count just as much as any other, and Johnson will have an opportunity to feast in garbage-time this season.
Johnson is the player to consider when you get to the middle rounds of your fantasy draft and are looking for a high-upside wide receiver. His overall ADP is 95th, and that is in the 7th-8th round of most 12-team leagues. Some of the wide receivers being drafted around him are Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze, and Christian Watson. What separates Johnson from those players is his track record and being the surefire number-one option in his offense. Johnson has the upside of a low-end WR1 but is being drafted as a flex option. You make or break your fantasy draft in the middle to late rounds, but Johnson seems like a safe option whose best-case scenario could be a career year.
